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THE SQUAD
● season 2026-27 · latest formation · round 6
NEXT CHECK
LAST MATCH
Sunderland – Brighton 0–2 (puoliaika 0–0)
PREVIEW IN HINDSIGHT
No preview was published before this match. The preview below was built after the match from pre-match data only (the same read would have been produced beforehand) and graded against what happened.
Watch first: Pressure vs the defence. Sunderland shoot this season 13.2 times per match (12th in the league, last season 10.4 and 18th in the league), Brighton: 11.6 shots conceded (league 5.). The match's shot count tells which number held.
What happened: between the readings: 12 shots (baseline 13.2, opponent concedes 11.6).
Then watch: Finishing vs the goalkeeper. Sunderland score this season from 9.1 percent of their shots (12th in the league, last season 10.6 and 14th in the league), Brighton: save percentage on shots on target 73.7 (league 7.). In the match this shows in whether the goal count matches the threat created.
What happened: goalkeeping and finishing beat the team: 0 goals from 0.68 expected (-0.68), 0 % of shots scored.
Third: Rhythm of the two halves. Last season Sunderland scored 69 percent of their goals in the second half, Brighton 62 percent. If the gap holds, the threat grows late towards Sunderland.
What happened: the second half was flatter: threat 0.43 → 0.25 xG, shots 4 → 8.
Fourth: Attacking inefficiency. 6 goals from 9.59 expected (xG), a gap of -3.59, league 19./20
What happened: Attacking inefficiency repeated in this match: 0 goals from 0.68 xG (-0.68).
One more: The second half sharpens. Threat rose in the second half (xG 2nd – 1st half +3.99)
What happened: The second half sharpens turned in this match: threat 0.43 → 0.25 xG.
Finally: Player pick. Granit Xhaka is the team's best in the match ratings this season: 23.2 points on average in 5 matches, top three 4 times.
What happened: Player pick did not hold: Granit Xhaka ranked 5/14 in his team's match ratings
And: Style of play. Low block: 36 % of shots conceded from outside the box, forces opponents to shoot from range.
What happened: Style claim held: 54 % of shots conceded from outside the box (league level 32 %).
From this match: 2/6 held
Result read from round data ●. Hits and misses are logged in the track record.
WHAT WE PAY ATTENTION TO
Sunderland were 7th, merit level 18th. Brobbey produced nearly half of the forward class's xGI. Watch whether the gap narrows.
MANAGER'S CORNER · FANTASY
TEAM BASELINE
Goal output has not followed the chances: 1 goals from 1.75 expected (-0.75) (Sun 30.8. home vs Fulham).
Goal output may keep falling short of the chances created.
+ Sun 30.8. home vs Fulham: 1 goals from 1.75 expected (-0.75)
Last season 1.1 goals and 10.4 shots in the match, 11 % of shots scored
Next test Will the goal count move closer to the expected number in the next match?
Hypothesis 2 · Threat by half State · strengthening · 6 matches
The threat appears weighted towards the second half.
Supports
+ Sun 30.8. home vs Fulham: own threat 0.07 → 1.69 xG, opponents 0.46 → 0.32
+ Sun 20.9. away vs Manchester City: own threat 1.57 → 2.00 xG, opponents 0.67 → 2.14
+ Sat 5.9. away vs Brentford: own threat 0.35 → 1.36 xG, opponents 0.35 → 0.85
+ Sat 12.9. home vs Arsenal: own threat 0.23 → 1.57 xG, opponents 0.77 → 1.11
Challenges
− Sat 22.8. away vs Ipswich: own threat 0.58 → 0.17 xG, opponents 0.95 → 0.79
− Sat 10.10. home vs Brighton: own threat 0.43 → 0.25 xG, opponents 0.47 → 0.67
Last season 69 % of goals came in the second half (29 / 42)
Next test Will the threat still grow from first half to second in a competitive match?
Hypothesis 3 · Box pressure State · strengthening · 3 matches
The team appears to get into the box repeatedly.
Supports
+ Sun 30.8. home vs Fulham: 9/12 shots from inside the box
+ Sun 20.9. away vs Manchester City: 14/17 shots from inside the box
+ Sat 5.9. away vs Brentford: 10/14 shots from inside the box
Challenges
No counter-evidence yet.
Last season 10.4 shots in the match (no box split from last season, so the comparison is shot count)
Next test Will shots in the box stay above eight when the opponent defends deeper?
Hypothesis 4 · Duels State · mixed · 6 matches
Duels appear to carry this team's game.
Supports
+ Sun 30.8. home vs Fulham: 57 % of duels won (57/100)
+ Sun 20.9. away vs Manchester City: 59 % of duels won (57/96)
+ Sat 5.9. away vs Brentford: 59 % of duels won (73/123)
Challenges
− Sat 22.8. away vs Ipswich: 46 % of duels won (52/114)
− Sat 12.9. home vs Arsenal: 41 % of duels won (37/90)
− Sat 10.10. home vs Brighton: 50 % of duels won (52/104)
Next test Will the duel-win rate stay above half even against a possession-dominant opponent?
Hypothesis 5 · Own box State · mixed · 6 matches
Opponents appear to get into the box too easily.
Supports
+ Sun 20.9. away vs Manchester City: 12 shots against from inside the box (16 in total)
+ Sat 22.8. away vs Ipswich: 8 shots against from inside the box (10 in total)
+ Sat 12.9. home vs Arsenal: 8 shots against from inside the box (11 in total)
Challenges
− Sun 30.8. home vs Fulham: 5 shots against from inside the box (9 in total)
− Sat 5.9. away vs Brentford: 7 shots against from inside the box (12 in total)
− Sat 10.10. home vs Brighton: 6 shots against from inside the box (13 in total)
Last season 14.3 shots against in the match (no box split)
Next test Will shots conceded inside the box fall below eight?
Hypothesis 6 · Discipline State · mixed · 6 matches
The cost of indiscipline may rise.
Supports
+ Sat 5.9. away vs Brentford: 2 cards, 9 fouls
+ Sat 22.8. away vs Ipswich: 3 cards, 14 fouls
+ Sat 12.9. home vs Arsenal: 7 cards, 18 fouls
Challenges
− Sun 30.8. home vs Fulham: 0 cards, 10 fouls
− Sun 20.9. away vs Manchester City: 1 cards, 14 fouls
− Sat 10.10. home vs Brighton: 0 cards, 8 fouls
Last season 2.2 cards and 10.7 fouls in the match
Next test Will cards add up to suspensions, or fouls to goals conceded?
Hypothesis 7 · Defensive line State · declining · 2 matches
The defence appears to hold a high line.
Supports
No longer backed by the evidence.
Challenges
− Sat 5.9. away vs Brentford: 0 offsides won
− Sat 10.10. home vs Brighton: 0 offsides won
Next test Will the offside trap keep working even against a more direct opponent?
Sun 30 Aug home vs Fulham · Finishing + 1 goals from 1.75 expected (-0.75)
Sun 30 Aug home vs Fulham · Threat by half + own threat 0.07 → 1.69 xG, opponents 0.46 → 0.32
Sun 30 Aug home vs Fulham · Goalkeeper − 0 saves
Sun 30 Aug home vs Fulham · Shooting accuracy − 4/12 shots on target (33 %)
Sun 30 Aug home vs Fulham · Discipline − 0 cards, 10 fouls
Sun 30 Aug home vs Fulham · Duels + 57 % of duels won (57/100)
Sun 30 Aug home vs Fulham · Possession and duels − possession 42 %, duels 57 %
Sun 30 Aug home vs Fulham · Set pieces − 3 corners, 4 conceded
Sun 30 Aug home vs Fulham · Own box − 5 shots against from inside the box (9 in total)
Sun 30 Aug home vs Fulham · Box pressure + 9/12 shots from inside the box
Sun 20 Sep away vs Manchester City · Finishing + 3 goals from 3.57 expected (-0.57)
Sun 20 Sep away vs Manchester City · Threat by half + own threat 1.57 → 2.00 xG, opponents 0.67 → 2.14
Sun 20 Sep away vs Manchester City · Goalkeeper − 1 saves
Sun 20 Sep away vs Manchester City · Shooting accuracy − 9/17 shots on target (53 %)
Sun 20 Sep away vs Manchester City · Discipline − 1 cards, 14 fouls
Sun 20 Sep away vs Manchester City · Duels + 59 % of duels won (57/96)
Sun 20 Sep away vs Manchester City · Possession and duels − possession 45 %, duels 59 %
Sun 20 Sep away vs Manchester City · Set pieces − 5 corners, 6 conceded
Sun 20 Sep away vs Manchester City · Own box + 12 shots against from inside the box (16 in total)
Sun 20 Sep away vs Manchester City · Box pressure + 14/17 shots from inside the box
Sat 5 Sep away vs Brentford · Finishing + 1 goals from 1.71 expected (-0.71)
Sat 5 Sep away vs Brentford · Threat by half + own threat 0.35 → 1.36 xG, opponents 0.35 → 0.85
Sat 5 Sep away vs Brentford · Goalkeeper − 1 saves
Sat 5 Sep away vs Brentford · Shooting accuracy − 5/14 shots on target (36 %)
Sat 5 Sep away vs Brentford · Defensive line − 0 offsides won
Sat 5 Sep away vs Brentford · Discipline + 2 cards, 9 fouls
Sat 5 Sep away vs Brentford · Duels + 59 % of duels won (73/123)
Sat 5 Sep away vs Brentford · Possession and duels − possession 51 %, duels 59 %
Sat 5 Sep away vs Brentford · Set pieces − 3 corners, 4 conceded
Sat 5 Sep away vs Brentford · Own box − 7 shots against from inside the box (12 in total)
Sat 5 Sep away vs Brentford · Box pressure + 10/14 shots from inside the box
Sat 22 Aug away vs Ipswich · Threat by half − own threat 0.58 → 0.17 xG, opponents 0.95 → 0.79
Sat 22 Aug away vs Ipswich · Goalkeeper − 1 saves
Sat 22 Aug away vs Ipswich · Shooting accuracy − 4/11 shots on target (36 %)
Sat 22 Aug away vs Ipswich · Discipline + 3 cards, 14 fouls
Sat 22 Aug away vs Ipswich · Duels − 46 % of duels won (52/114)
Sat 22 Aug away vs Ipswich · Possession and duels + possession 62 %, duels 46 %
Sat 22 Aug away vs Ipswich · Set pieces − 5 corners, 3 conceded
Sat 22 Aug away vs Ipswich · Own box + 8 shots against from inside the box (10 in total)
Sat 12 Sep home vs Arsenal · Finishing + 0 goals from 1.80 expected (-1.80)
Sat 12 Sep home vs Arsenal · Threat by half + own threat 0.23 → 1.57 xG, opponents 0.77 → 1.11
Sat 12 Sep home vs Arsenal · Goalkeeper − 3 saves
Sat 12 Sep home vs Arsenal · Shooting accuracy + 3/12 shots on target (25 %)
Sat 12 Sep home vs Arsenal · Discipline + 7 cards, 18 fouls
Sat 12 Sep home vs Arsenal · Duels − 41 % of duels won (37/90)
Sat 12 Sep home vs Arsenal · Possession and duels − possession 43 %, duels 41 %
Sat 12 Sep home vs Arsenal · Own box + 8 shots against from inside the box (11 in total)
Sat 10 Oct home vs Brighton · Finishing + 0 goals from 0.68 expected (-0.68)
Sat 10 Oct home vs Brighton · Threat by half − own threat 0.43 → 0.25 xG, opponents 0.47 → 0.67
Sat 10 Oct home vs Brighton · Goalkeeper − 2 saves
Sat 10 Oct home vs Brighton · Shooting accuracy + 3/12 shots on target (25 %)
Sat 10 Oct home vs Brighton · Defensive line − 0 offsides won
Sat 10 Oct home vs Brighton · Discipline − 0 cards, 8 fouls
Sat 10 Oct home vs Brighton · Duels − 50 % of duels won (52/104)
Sat 10 Oct home vs Brighton · Possession and duels − possession 62 %, duels 50 %
Sat 10 Oct home vs Brighton · Set pieces + 7 corners, 5 conceded
Sat 10 Oct home vs Brighton · Own box − 6 shots against from inside the box (13 in total)
Hypothesis 1 · Shooting accuracy State · closed · 6 matches
Shots don't appear to hit the target often enough.
Supports
+ Sat 12.9. home vs Arsenal: 3/12 shots on target (25 %)
+ Sat 10.10. home vs Brighton: 3/12 shots on target (25 %)
Challenges
− Sun 30.8. home vs Fulham: 4/12 shots on target (33 %)
− Sun 20.9. away vs Manchester City: 9/17 shots on target (53 %)
− Sat 5.9. away vs Brentford: 5/14 shots on target (36 %)
− Sat 22.8. away vs Ipswich: 4/11 shots on target (36 %)
Last season 32 % of shots on target (126 / 395)
Next test Will the share of shots on target rise above a third?
Hypothesis 2 · Set pieces State · closed · 5 matches
Set pieces may keep coming to nothing.
Supports
+ Sat 10.10. home vs Brighton: 7 corners, 5 conceded
Challenges
− Sun 30.8. home vs Fulham: 3 corners, 4 conceded
− Sun 20.9. away vs Manchester City: 5 corners, 6 conceded
− Sat 5.9. away vs Brentford: 3 corners, 4 conceded
− Sat 22.8. away vs Ipswich: 5 corners, 3 conceded
Last season 3.7 corners in the match, 5.3 against
Next test Will a corner or free kick produce a goal in the coming rounds?
Hypothesis 3 · Possession and duels State · closed · 6 matches
Possession may not be matched by duel wins.
Supports
+ Sat 22.8. away vs Ipswich: possession 62 %, duels 46 %
Challenges
− Sun 30.8. home vs Fulham: possession 42 %, duels 57 %
− Sun 20.9. away vs Manchester City: possession 45 %, duels 59 %
− Sat 5.9. away vs Brentford: possession 51 %, duels 59 %
− Sat 12.9. home vs Arsenal: possession 43 %, duels 41 %
− Sat 10.10. home vs Brighton: possession 62 %, duels 50 %
Next test Will the duel balance flip when the opponent presses higher?
Hypothesis 4 · Goalkeeper State · closed · 6 matches
The goalkeeper's level may prove the difference for this team.
Supports
No longer backed by the evidence.
Challenges
− Sun 30.8. home vs Fulham: 0 saves
− Sun 20.9. away vs Manchester City: 1 saves
− Sat 5.9. away vs Brentford: 1 saves
− Sat 22.8. away vs Ipswich: 1 saves
− Sat 12.9. home vs Arsenal: 3 saves
− Sat 10.10. home vs Brighton: 2 saves
Last season 71 % of shots on target kept out (48 conceded / 167)
Next test Will the shot-stopping level hold when shot quality changes?
Line: deep line: the offside trap sprang only 4 times (19./20)
Progression: progression mid-table: 32.0 passes per shot, possession 51 %
Set pieces: in attack 27 corners (league 11./20), no headed goals yet; in defence 24 corners against (17./20), no headed goals conceded
Second half: output weighted to the second half (3+4 goals); own end leaks late (concessions 4+8); own threat grows in the second half (3.23 → 7.04 xG); opponents' threat grows (3.67 → 5.88 xG); first substitution on average at minute 58
Attacking inefficiency: 6 goals from 10.27 expected (xG), a gap of -4.27, league 19./20
We track whether the finishing corrects or the deficit continues: the same metric is read after every round.
The second half sharpens: Threat rose in the second half (xG 2nd – 1st half +3.81)
We track whether the second-half sharpening repeats: is it structure or the opponent.
| Finishing goals vs xG | Chance creation assists vs xA | |
| Defenders | +1.0 | +1.4 |
| Midfield | −0.9 | +2.1 |
| Forwards | +2.6 | −1.1 |
TEAM IDENTITY
Home ground
The Stadium of Light opened on 30.7.1997, replacing Roker Park, home for 99 years.
source: Wikipedia, Stadium of LightTEAM MEMORY
Teachers found the club as the Sunderland and District Teachers' Association Football Club.
source: Sunderland AFC (safc.com), 1879 Beginnings