”I wouldn't say I was the best manager in the business. But I was in the top one.”
Brian Clough
THE SQUAD
● season 2026-27 · latest formation · round 6
NEXT CHECK
LAST MATCH
Crystal Palace – Nott'm Forest 3–1 (half-time 2–1) · goals: Ndoye
PREVIEW IN HINDSIGHT
No preview was published before this match. The preview below was built after the match from pre-match data only (the same read would have been produced beforehand) and graded against what happened.
Watch first: Pressure vs the defence. Nott'm Forest shoot this season 16.4 times per match (3rd in the league, last season 12.5 and 12th in the league), Crystal Palace: 16.8 shots conceded (league 17.). The match's shot count tells which number held.
What happened: the pressure held: 24 shots (baseline 16.4, opponent concedes 16.8).
Then watch: Finishing vs the goalkeeper. Nott'm Forest score this season from 4.9 percent of their shots (18th in the league, last season 10.1 and 17th in the league), Crystal Palace: save percentage on shots on target 60.7 (league 16.). In the match this shows in whether the goal count matches the threat created.
What happened: goalkeeping and finishing beat the team: 1 goals from 2.98 expected (-1.98), 4 % of shots scored.
Third: Rhythm of the two halves. Last season Nott'm Forest scored 60 percent of their goals in the second half, Crystal Palace 51 percent. If the gap holds, the threat grows late towards Nottingham Forest.
What happened: the second half was flatter: threat 2.18 → 0.80 xG, shots 16 → 8.
Fourth: Attacking inefficiency. 4 goals from 7.25 expected (xG), a gap of -3.25, league 18./20
What happened: Attacking inefficiency repeated in this match: 1 goals from 2.98 xG (-1.98).
One more: Shots are not finding the target. 17/82 shots on target, i.e. 21 % (league 20./20)
What happened: Shots are not finding the target repeated in this match: 6/24 on target (25 %).
Finally: Player pick. Morgan Gibbs-White is the team's best in the match ratings this season: 23.2 points on average in 5 matches, top three 3 times.
What happened: The player call held: Morgan Gibbs-White was among their team's best in the match scoring (2./15).
And: Style of play. Deep line: the offside trap springs rarely (0.9/match).
What happened: Style claim did not hold: 2 offsides drawn (league level 1.5).
From this match: 4/7 held
Result read from round data ●. Hits and misses are logged in the track record.
MANAGER'S CORNER · FANTASY
TEAM BASELINE
The cost of indiscipline has grown: 2 cards, 10 fouls (Sun 11.10. away vs Crystal Palace).
The cost of indiscipline may rise.
+ Sun 11.10. away vs Crystal Palace: 2 cards, 10 fouls
Last season 1.6 cards and 10.7 fouls in the match
Next test Will cards add up to suspensions, or fouls to goals conceded?
Hypothesis 2 · Shooting accuracy State · strengthening · 6 matches
Shots don't appear to hit the target often enough.
Supports
+ Sun 11.10. away vs Crystal Palace: 6/24 shots on target (25 %)
+ Sat 5.9. home vs Tottenham: 2/12 shots on target (17 %)
+ Sat 29.8. away vs Liverpool: 3/12 shots on target (25 %)
+ Sat 22.8. home vs Leeds: 2/12 shots on target (17 %)
+ Sat 19.9. home vs Coventry: 3/24 shots on target (12 %)
Challenges
− Sat 12.9. away vs Aston Villa: 7/22 shots on target (32 %)
Last season 33 % of shots on target (156 / 476)
Next test Will the share of shots on target rise above a third?
Hypothesis 3 · Finishing State · strengthening · 4 matches
Goal output may keep falling short of the chances created.
Supports
+ Sun 11.10. away vs Crystal Palace: 1 goals from 2.98 expected (-1.98)
+ Sat 5.9. home vs Tottenham: 0 goals from 0.92 expected (-0.92)
+ Sat 22.8. home vs Leeds: 0 goals from 0.65 expected (-0.65)
+ Sat 19.9. home vs Coventry: 0 goals from 1.10 expected (-1.10)
Challenges
No counter-evidence yet.
Last season 1.3 goals and 12.5 shots in the match, 10 % of shots scored
Next test Will the goal count move closer to the expected number in the next match?
Hypothesis 4 · Box pressure State · strengthening · 4 matches
The team appears to get into the box repeatedly.
Supports
+ Sun 11.10. away vs Crystal Palace: 16/24 shots from inside the box
+ Sat 29.8. away vs Liverpool: 11/12 shots from inside the box
+ Sat 19.9. home vs Coventry: 12/24 shots from inside the box
+ Sat 12.9. away vs Aston Villa: 14/22 shots from inside the box
Challenges
No counter-evidence yet.
Last season 12.5 shots in the match (no box split from last season, so the comparison is shot count)
Next test Will shots in the box stay above eight when the opponent defends deeper?
Hypothesis 5 · Own box State · mixed · 6 matches
Opponents appear to get into the box too easily.
Supports
+ Sun 11.10. away vs Crystal Palace: 11 shots against from inside the box (13 in total)
+ Sat 5.9. home vs Tottenham: 8 shots against from inside the box (11 in total)
+ Sat 29.8. away vs Liverpool: 8 shots against from inside the box (13 in total)
Challenges
− Sat 22.8. home vs Leeds: 6 shots against from inside the box (11 in total)
− Sat 19.9. home vs Coventry: 5 shots against from inside the box (10 in total)
− Sat 12.9. away vs Aston Villa: 6 shots against from inside the box (7 in total)
Last season 13.3 shots against in the match (no box split)
Next test Will shots conceded inside the box fall below eight?
Hypothesis 6 · Possession and duels State · mixed · 6 matches
Possession may not be matched by duel wins.
Supports
+ Sun 11.10. away vs Crystal Palace: possession 57 %, duels 49 %
+ Sat 22.8. home vs Leeds: possession 55 %, duels 48 %
+ Sat 19.9. home vs Coventry: possession 62 %, duels 49 %
Challenges
− Sat 5.9. home vs Tottenham: possession 41 %, duels 48 %
− Sat 29.8. away vs Liverpool: possession 30 %, duels 54 %
− Sat 12.9. away vs Aston Villa: possession 46 %, duels 52 %
Next test Will the duel balance flip when the opponent presses higher?
Hypothesis 7 · Defensive line State · mixed · 3 matches
The defence appears to hold a high line.
Supports
+ Sat 29.8. away vs Liverpool: 3 offsides won
+ Sat 22.8. home vs Leeds: 3 offsides won
Challenges
− Sat 12.9. away vs Aston Villa: 0 offsides won
Next test Will the offside trap keep working even against a more direct opponent?
Hypothesis 8 · Set pieces State · declining · 3 matches
Set pieces may keep coming to nothing.
Supports
+ Sat 19.9. home vs Coventry: 6 corners, 2 conceded
Challenges
− Sun 11.10. away vs Crystal Palace: 8 corners, 5 conceded
− Sat 29.8. away vs Liverpool: 5 corners, 3 conceded
Last season 5.2 corners in the match, 4.8 against
Next test Will a corner or free kick produce a goal in the coming rounds?
Sun 11 Oct away vs Crystal Palace · Finishing + 1 goals from 2.98 expected (-1.98)
Sun 11 Oct away vs Crystal Palace · Threat by half − own threat 2.18 → 0.80 xG, opponents 1.41 → 1.01
Sun 11 Oct away vs Crystal Palace · Goalkeeper + 4 saves
Sun 11 Oct away vs Crystal Palace · Shooting accuracy + 6/24 shots on target (25 %)
Sun 11 Oct away vs Crystal Palace · Discipline + 2 cards, 10 fouls
Sun 11 Oct away vs Crystal Palace · Duels − 49 % of duels won (48/98)
Sun 11 Oct away vs Crystal Palace · Possession and duels + possession 57 %, duels 49 %
Sun 11 Oct away vs Crystal Palace · Set pieces − 8 corners, 5 conceded
Sun 11 Oct away vs Crystal Palace · Own box + 11 shots against from inside the box (13 in total)
Sun 11 Oct away vs Crystal Palace · Box pressure + 16/24 shots from inside the box
Sat 5 Sep home vs Tottenham · Finishing + 0 goals from 0.92 expected (-0.92)
Sat 5 Sep home vs Tottenham · Threat by half − own threat 0.49 → 0.43 xG, opponents 0.08 → 0.99
Sat 5 Sep home vs Tottenham · Goalkeeper − 0 saves
Sat 5 Sep home vs Tottenham · Shooting accuracy + 2/12 shots on target (17 %)
Sat 5 Sep home vs Tottenham · Discipline + 2 cards, 22 fouls
Sat 5 Sep home vs Tottenham · Duels − 48 % of duels won (61/127)
Sat 5 Sep home vs Tottenham · Possession and duels − possession 41 %, duels 48 %
Sat 5 Sep home vs Tottenham · Own box + 8 shots against from inside the box (11 in total)
Sat 29 Aug away vs Liverpool · Threat by half − own threat 1.31 → 0.99 xG, opponents 0.25 → 1.36
Sat 29 Aug away vs Liverpool · Goalkeeper − 2 saves
Sat 29 Aug away vs Liverpool · Shooting accuracy + 3/12 shots on target (25 %)
Sat 29 Aug away vs Liverpool · Defensive line + 3 offsides won
Sat 29 Aug away vs Liverpool · Discipline + 2 cards, 10 fouls
Sat 29 Aug away vs Liverpool · Duels + 54 % of duels won (60/111)
Sat 29 Aug away vs Liverpool · Possession and duels − possession 30 %, duels 54 %
Sat 29 Aug away vs Liverpool · Set pieces − 5 corners, 3 conceded
Sat 29 Aug away vs Liverpool · Own box + 8 shots against from inside the box (13 in total)
Sat 29 Aug away vs Liverpool · Box pressure + 11/12 shots from inside the box
Sat 22 Aug home vs Leeds · Finishing + 0 goals from 0.65 expected (-0.65)
Sat 22 Aug home vs Leeds · Threat by half + own threat 0.19 → 0.46 xG, opponents 0.18 → 0.31
Sat 22 Aug home vs Leeds · Goalkeeper − 2 saves
Sat 22 Aug home vs Leeds · Shooting accuracy + 2/12 shots on target (17 %)
Sat 22 Aug home vs Leeds · Defensive line + 3 offsides won
Sat 22 Aug home vs Leeds · Discipline + 2 cards, 15 fouls
Sat 22 Aug home vs Leeds · Duels − 48 % of duels won (59/124)
Sat 22 Aug home vs Leeds · Possession and duels + possession 55 %, duels 48 %
Sat 22 Aug home vs Leeds · Own box − 6 shots against from inside the box (11 in total)
Sat 19 Sep home vs Coventry · Finishing + 0 goals from 1.10 expected (-1.10)
Sat 19 Sep home vs Coventry · Threat by half − own threat 0.60 → 0.50 xG, opponents 0.25 → 0.43
Sat 19 Sep home vs Coventry · Goalkeeper − 2 saves
Sat 19 Sep home vs Coventry · Shooting accuracy + 3/24 shots on target (12 %)
Sat 19 Sep home vs Coventry · Discipline + 2 cards, 12 fouls
Sat 19 Sep home vs Coventry · Duels − 49 % of duels won (52/106)
Sat 19 Sep home vs Coventry · Possession and duels + possession 62 %, duels 49 %
Sat 19 Sep home vs Coventry · Set pieces + 6 corners, 2 conceded
Sat 19 Sep home vs Coventry · Own box − 5 shots against from inside the box (10 in total)
Sat 19 Sep home vs Coventry · Box pressure + 12/24 shots from inside the box
Sat 12 Sep away vs Aston Villa · Threat by half + own threat 0.39 → 1.89 xG, opponents 0.65 → 0.17
Sat 12 Sep away vs Aston Villa · Goalkeeper + 5 saves
Sat 12 Sep away vs Aston Villa · Shooting accuracy − 7/22 shots on target (32 %)
Sat 12 Sep away vs Aston Villa · Defensive line − 0 offsides won
Sat 12 Sep away vs Aston Villa · Discipline + 5 cards, 16 fouls
Sat 12 Sep away vs Aston Villa · Duels + 52 % of duels won (50/97)
Sat 12 Sep away vs Aston Villa · Possession and duels − possession 46 %, duels 52 %
Sat 12 Sep away vs Aston Villa · Own box − 6 shots against from inside the box (7 in total)
Sat 12 Sep away vs Aston Villa · Box pressure + 14/22 shots from inside the box
Hypothesis 1 · Threat by half State · closed · 6 matches
The threat appears weighted towards the second half.
Supports
+ Sat 22.8. home vs Leeds: own threat 0.19 → 0.46 xG, opponents 0.18 → 0.31
+ Sat 12.9. away vs Aston Villa: own threat 0.39 → 1.89 xG, opponents 0.65 → 0.17
Challenges
− Sun 11.10. away vs Crystal Palace: own threat 2.18 → 0.80 xG, opponents 1.41 → 1.01
− Sat 5.9. home vs Tottenham: own threat 0.49 → 0.43 xG, opponents 0.08 → 0.99
− Sat 29.8. away vs Liverpool: own threat 1.31 → 0.99 xG, opponents 0.25 → 1.36
− Sat 19.9. home vs Coventry: own threat 0.60 → 0.50 xG, opponents 0.25 → 0.43
Last season 60 % of goals came in the second half (29 / 48)
Next test Will the threat still grow from first half to second in a competitive match?
Hypothesis 2 · Goalkeeper State · closed · 6 matches
The goalkeeper's level may prove the difference for this team.
Supports
+ Sun 11.10. away vs Crystal Palace: 4 saves
+ Sat 12.9. away vs Aston Villa: 5 saves
Challenges
− Sat 5.9. home vs Tottenham: 0 saves
− Sat 29.8. away vs Liverpool: 2 saves
− Sat 22.8. home vs Leeds: 2 saves
− Sat 19.9. home vs Coventry: 2 saves
Last season 69 % of shots on target kept out (51 conceded / 162)
Next test Will the shot-stopping level hold when shot quality changes?
Hypothesis 3 · Duels State · closed · 6 matches
Duels appear to carry this team's game.
Supports
+ Sat 29.8. away vs Liverpool: 54 % of duels won (60/111)
+ Sat 12.9. away vs Aston Villa: 52 % of duels won (50/97)
Challenges
− Sun 11.10. away vs Crystal Palace: 49 % of duels won (48/98)
− Sat 5.9. home vs Tottenham: 48 % of duels won (61/127)
− Sat 22.8. home vs Leeds: 48 % of duels won (59/124)
− Sat 19.9. home vs Coventry: 49 % of duels won (52/106)
Next test Will the duel-win rate stay above half even against a possession-dominant opponent?
Line: line mid-level: 11 offsides drawn
Progression: progresses directly: 22.2 passes per shot (league's most direct 1./20), possession 48 %
Set pieces: in attack 25 corners (league 13./20), no headed goals yet; in defence 28 corners against (9./20), no headed goals conceded
Second half: output weighted to the second half (2+3 goals); own end leaks late (concessions 1+7); own threat holds in the second half (5.16 → 5.07 xG); opponents' threat grows (2.82 → 4.27 xG); first substitution on average at minute 64
When leading: the lead broke: 1 lead at half-time, the result did not hold (opponent xG 2.82 → 4.27)
Attacking inefficiency: 5 goals from 10.23 expected (xG), a gap of -5.23, league 20./20
We track whether the finishing corrects or the deficit continues: the same metric is read after every round.
Box pressure delivers: 64 shots from inside the box (league 5./20) and 5 goals, 106 shots in total (3./20)
We track whether box pressure holds when opponents defend deeper: volume without goals is recorded as inefficiency.
Shots are not finding the target: 23/106 shots on target, i.e. 22 % (league 20./20)
We track whether accuracy climbs as the chances improve: volume without shots on target does not produce goals.
| Finishing goals vs xG | Chance creation assists vs xA | |
| Defenders | +1.2 | −4.1 |
| Midfield | +4.1 | +2.3 |
| Forwards | −1.2 | +2.8 |
TEAM IDENTITY
Home ground
The City Ground has been Forest's home since 1898 on the banks of the Trent, and was a Euro 1996 venue.
source: Nottingham Forest FC (nottinghamforest.co.uk), History of The City GroundTEAM MEMORY
Forest win the European Cup again by beating Hamburg in Madrid.
source: Wikipedia, 1980 European Cup final