MY CLUB
”Superbia in Proelio”, ylpeys taistelussa
THE SQUAD
● season 2026-27 · latest formation · round 6
NEXT CHECK
LAST MATCH
Liverpool – Man City 0–3 (half-time 0–0) · goals: Doku, Cherki, Haaland
PREVIEW IN HINDSIGHT
No preview was published before this match. The preview below was built after the match from pre-match data only (the same read would have been produced beforehand) and graded against what happened.
Watch first: Pressure vs the defence. Man City shoot this season 13.6 times per match (10th in the league, last season 15.7 and 2nd in the league), Liverpool: 11.6 shots conceded (league 6.). The match's shot count tells which number held.
What happened: the pressure held: 15 shots (baseline 13.6, opponent concedes 11.6).
Then watch: Finishing vs the goalkeeper. Man City score this season from 19.1 percent of their shots (1st in the league, last season 12.9 and 2nd in the league), Liverpool: save percentage on shots on target 77.8 (league 5.). In the match this shows in whether the goal count matches the threat created.
What happened: the finishing held: 3 goals from 1.35 expected (+1.65), 20 % of shots scored.
Third: Set pieces. Man City win this season 6.2 corners per match (4th in the league, last season 6.5 and 1st in the league), Liverpool: 4.4 corners conceded (league 16.). The expectation is at least 4 corners.
What happened: expectation met: 6 corners (expected 4), 3 goals.
Fourth: The second half sharpens. Threat rose in the second half (xG 2nd – 1st half +3.49)
What happened: The second half sharpens repeated in this match: threat 0.11 → 1.24 xG.
One more: Player pick. Erling Haaland is the team's best in the match ratings this season: 33.4 points on average in 5 matches, top three 3 times.
What happened: Player pick did not hold: Erling Haaland ranked 5/14 in his team's match ratings and produced 1+0.
Finally: Style of play. Keeps the ball: possession 60 % and 587 passes/match (league 1.).
What happened: Style claim held: possession 65 % (league level 50 %).
From this match: 5/6 held
Result read from round data ●. Hits and misses are logged in the track record.
MANAGER'S CORNER · FANTASY
TEAM BASELINE
The team reaches the box: 11/13 shots from inside the box (Sun 23.8. home vs Bournemouth).
Last quarter hour · Man City gained 3 points after the 75th minute.
The team appears to get into the box repeatedly.
+ Sun 23.8. home vs Bournemouth: 11/13 shots from inside the box
− Sun 13.9. away vs Manchester United: 2/6 shots from inside the box
Last season 15.7 shots in the match (no box split from last season, so the comparison is shot count)
Next test Will shots in the box stay above eight when the opponent defends deeper?
Hypothesis 2 · Threat by half State · strengthening · 6 matches
The threat appears weighted towards the second half.
Supports
+ Sun 23.8. home vs Bournemouth: own threat 0.49 → 1.87 xG, opponents 0.55 → 0.08
+ Sun 20.9. home vs Sunderland: own threat 0.67 → 2.14 xG, opponents 1.57 → 2.00
+ Sun 13.9. away vs Manchester United: own threat 0.09 → 1.01 xG, opponents 0.20 → 0.80
+ Sun 11.10. away vs Liverpool: own threat 0.11 → 1.24 xG, opponents 0.51 → 0.51
Challenges
− Fri 28.8. away vs Crystal Palace: own threat 0.85 → 0.61 xG, opponents 0.30 → 0.27
− Sat 5.9. home vs Coventry: own threat 1.08 → 1.04 xG, opponents 0.73 → 0.64
Last season 47 % of goals came in the second half (36 / 77)
Next test Will the threat still grow from first half to second in a competitive match?
Hypothesis 3 · Duels State · strengthening · 6 matches
Duels appear to carry this team's game.
Supports
+ Sun 23.8. home vs Bournemouth: 54 % of duels won (46/85)
+ Sun 13.9. away vs Manchester United: 53 % of duels won (53/100)
+ Sun 11.10. away vs Liverpool: 54 % of duels won (54/100)
+ Sat 5.9. home vs Coventry: 59 % of duels won (63/107)
Challenges
− Sun 20.9. home vs Sunderland: 41 % of duels won (39/96)
− Fri 28.8. away vs Crystal Palace: 49 % of duels won (52/107)
Next test Will the duel-win rate stay above half even against a possession-dominant opponent?
Hypothesis 4 · Discipline State · mixed · 6 matches
The cost of indiscipline may rise.
Supports
+ Sun 13.9. away vs Manchester United: 3 cards, 10 fouls
+ Sun 11.10. away vs Liverpool: 2 cards, 14 fouls
+ Fri 28.8. away vs Crystal Palace: 2 cards, 10 fouls
Challenges
− Sun 23.8. home vs Bournemouth: 1 cards, 11 fouls
− Sun 20.9. home vs Sunderland: 0 cards, 14 fouls
− Sat 5.9. home vs Coventry: 1 cards, 7 fouls
Last season 1.8 cards and 9.7 fouls in the match
Next test Will cards add up to suspensions, or fouls to goals conceded?
Hypothesis 5 · Defensive line State · new · 2 matches
The defence appears to hold a high line.
Supports
+ Sun 13.9. away vs Manchester United: 4 offsides won
+ Fri 28.8. away vs Crystal Palace: 3 offsides won
Challenges
No counter-evidence yet.
Next test Will the offside trap keep working even against a more direct opponent?
Hypothesis 6 · Finishing State · declining · 4 matches
Goal output may keep falling short of the chances created.
Supports
+ Sat 5.9. home vs Coventry: 1 goals from 2.12 expected (-1.12)
Challenges
− Sun 20.9. home vs Sunderland: 5 goals from 2.82 expected (+2.18)
− Sun 11.10. away vs Liverpool: 3 goals from 1.35 expected (+1.65)
− Fri 28.8. away vs Crystal Palace: 4 goals from 1.45 expected (+2.55)
Last season 2.0 goals and 15.7 shots in the match, 13 % of shots scored
Next test Will the goal count move closer to the expected number in the next match?
Sun 23 Aug home vs Bournemouth · Threat by half + own threat 0.49 → 1.87 xG, opponents 0.55 → 0.08
Sun 23 Aug home vs Bournemouth · Goalkeeper − 3 saves
Sun 23 Aug home vs Bournemouth · Shooting accuracy − 6/13 shots on target (46 %)
Sun 23 Aug home vs Bournemouth · Discipline − 1 cards, 11 fouls
Sun 23 Aug home vs Bournemouth · Duels + 54 % of duels won (46/85)
Sun 23 Aug home vs Bournemouth · Possession and duels − possession 66 %, duels 54 %
Sun 23 Aug home vs Bournemouth · Set pieces − 8 corners, 3 conceded
Sun 23 Aug home vs Bournemouth · Own box − 4 shots against from inside the box (5 in total)
Sun 23 Aug home vs Bournemouth · Box pressure + 11/13 shots from inside the box
Sun 20 Sep home vs Sunderland · Finishing − 5 goals from 2.82 expected (+2.18)
Sun 20 Sep home vs Sunderland · Threat by half + own threat 0.67 → 2.14 xG, opponents 1.57 → 2.00
Sun 20 Sep home vs Sunderland · Goalkeeper + 4 saves
Sun 20 Sep home vs Sunderland · Shooting accuracy − 6/16 shots on target (38 %)
Sun 20 Sep home vs Sunderland · Discipline − 0 cards, 14 fouls
Sun 20 Sep home vs Sunderland · Duels − 41 % of duels won (39/96)
Sun 20 Sep home vs Sunderland · Possession and duels + possession 55 %, duels 41 %
Sun 20 Sep home vs Sunderland · Set pieces − 6 corners, 5 conceded
Sun 20 Sep home vs Sunderland · Own box + 14 shots against from inside the box (17 in total)
Sun 20 Sep home vs Sunderland · Box pressure + 12/16 shots from inside the box
Sun 13 Sep away vs Manchester United · Threat by half + own threat 0.09 → 1.01 xG, opponents 0.20 → 0.80
Sun 13 Sep away vs Manchester United · Goalkeeper − 3 saves
Sun 13 Sep away vs Manchester United · Shooting accuracy − 2/6 shots on target (33 %)
Sun 13 Sep away vs Manchester United · Defensive line + 4 offsides won
Sun 13 Sep away vs Manchester United · Discipline + 3 cards, 10 fouls
Sun 13 Sep away vs Manchester United · Duels + 53 % of duels won (53/100)
Sun 13 Sep away vs Manchester United · Possession and duels − possession 45 %, duels 53 %
Sun 13 Sep away vs Manchester United · Set pieces − 7 corners, 6 conceded
Sun 13 Sep away vs Manchester United · Own box − 6 shots against from inside the box (16 in total)
Sun 13 Sep away vs Manchester United · Box pressure − 2/6 shots from inside the box
Sun 11 Oct away vs Liverpool · Finishing − 3 goals from 1.35 expected (+1.65)
Sun 11 Oct away vs Liverpool · Threat by half + own threat 0.11 → 1.24 xG, opponents 0.51 → 0.51
Sun 11 Oct away vs Liverpool · Goalkeeper + 6 saves
Sun 11 Oct away vs Liverpool · Shooting accuracy + 4/15 shots on target (27 %)
Sun 11 Oct away vs Liverpool · Discipline + 2 cards, 14 fouls
Sun 11 Oct away vs Liverpool · Duels + 54 % of duels won (54/100)
Sun 11 Oct away vs Liverpool · Possession and duels − possession 65 %, duels 54 %
Sun 11 Oct away vs Liverpool · Set pieces − 6 corners, 5 conceded
Sun 11 Oct away vs Liverpool · Own box − 6 shots against from inside the box (13 in total)
Sun 11 Oct away vs Liverpool · Box pressure + 8/15 shots from inside the box
Fri 28 Aug away vs Crystal Palace · Finishing − 4 goals from 1.45 expected (+2.55)
Fri 28 Aug away vs Crystal Palace · Threat by half − own threat 0.85 → 0.61 xG, opponents 0.30 → 0.27
Fri 28 Aug away vs Crystal Palace · Goalkeeper − 1 saves
Fri 28 Aug away vs Crystal Palace · Shooting accuracy − 9/18 shots on target (50 %)
Fri 28 Aug away vs Crystal Palace · Defensive line + 3 offsides won
Fri 28 Aug away vs Crystal Palace · Discipline + 2 cards, 10 fouls
Fri 28 Aug away vs Crystal Palace · Duels − 49 % of duels won (52/107)
Fri 28 Aug away vs Crystal Palace · Possession and duels + possession 72 %, duels 49 %
Fri 28 Aug away vs Crystal Palace · Set pieces − 6 corners, 2 conceded
Fri 28 Aug away vs Crystal Palace · Own box − 6 shots against from inside the box (9 in total)
Fri 28 Aug away vs Crystal Palace · Box pressure + 12/18 shots from inside the box
Sat 5 Sep home vs Coventry · Finishing + 1 goals from 2.12 expected (-1.12)
Sat 5 Sep home vs Coventry · Threat by half − own threat 1.08 → 1.04 xG, opponents 0.73 → 0.64
Sat 5 Sep home vs Coventry · Goalkeeper − 3 saves
Sat 5 Sep home vs Coventry · Shooting accuracy + 4/15 shots on target (27 %)
Sat 5 Sep home vs Coventry · Discipline − 1 cards, 7 fouls
Sat 5 Sep home vs Coventry · Duels + 59 % of duels won (63/107)
Sat 5 Sep home vs Coventry · Possession and duels − possession 78 %, duels 59 %
Sat 5 Sep home vs Coventry · Set pieces − 4 corners, 5 conceded
Sat 5 Sep home vs Coventry · Own box + 8 shots against from inside the box (12 in total)
Sat 5 Sep home vs Coventry · Box pressure + 14/15 shots from inside the box
Hypothesis 1 · Own box State · closed · 6 matches
Opponents appear to get into the box too easily.
Supports
+ Sun 20.9. home vs Sunderland: 14 shots against from inside the box (17 in total)
+ Sat 5.9. home vs Coventry: 8 shots against from inside the box (12 in total)
Challenges
− Sun 23.8. home vs Bournemouth: 4 shots against from inside the box (5 in total)
− Sun 13.9. away vs Manchester United: 6 shots against from inside the box (16 in total)
− Sun 11.10. away vs Liverpool: 6 shots against from inside the box (13 in total)
− Fri 28.8. away vs Crystal Palace: 6 shots against from inside the box (9 in total)
Last season 9.7 shots against in the match (no box split)
Next test Will shots conceded inside the box fall below eight?
Hypothesis 2 · Possession and duels State · closed · 6 matches
Possession may not be matched by duel wins.
Supports
+ Sun 20.9. home vs Sunderland: possession 55 %, duels 41 %
+ Fri 28.8. away vs Crystal Palace: possession 72 %, duels 49 %
Challenges
− Sun 23.8. home vs Bournemouth: possession 66 %, duels 54 %
− Sun 13.9. away vs Manchester United: possession 45 %, duels 53 %
− Sun 11.10. away vs Liverpool: possession 65 %, duels 54 %
− Sat 5.9. home vs Coventry: possession 78 %, duels 59 %
Next test Will the duel balance flip when the opponent presses higher?
Hypothesis 3 · Goalkeeper State · closed · 6 matches
The goalkeeper's level may prove the difference for this team.
Supports
+ Sun 20.9. home vs Sunderland: 4 saves
+ Sun 11.10. away vs Liverpool: 6 saves
Challenges
− Sun 23.8. home vs Bournemouth: 3 saves
− Sun 13.9. away vs Manchester United: 3 saves
− Fri 28.8. away vs Crystal Palace: 1 saves
− Sat 5.9. home vs Coventry: 3 saves
Last season 72 % of shots on target kept out (35 conceded / 127)
Next test Will the shot-stopping level hold when shot quality changes?
Hypothesis 4 · Shooting accuracy State · closed · 6 matches
Shots don't appear to hit the target often enough.
Supports
+ Sun 11.10. away vs Liverpool: 4/15 shots on target (27 %)
+ Sat 5.9. home vs Coventry: 4/15 shots on target (27 %)
Challenges
− Sun 23.8. home vs Bournemouth: 6/13 shots on target (46 %)
− Sun 20.9. home vs Sunderland: 6/16 shots on target (38 %)
− Sun 13.9. away vs Manchester United: 2/6 shots on target (33 %)
− Fri 28.8. away vs Crystal Palace: 9/18 shots on target (50 %)
Last season 34 % of shots on target (205 / 595)
Next test Will the share of shots on target rise above a third?
Hypothesis 5 · Set pieces State · closed · 6 matches
Set pieces may keep coming to nothing.
Supports
No longer backed by the evidence.
Challenges
− Sun 23.8. home vs Bournemouth: 8 corners, 3 conceded
− Sun 20.9. home vs Sunderland: 6 corners, 5 conceded
− Sun 13.9. away vs Manchester United: 7 corners, 6 conceded
− Sun 11.10. away vs Liverpool: 6 corners, 5 conceded
− Fri 28.8. away vs Crystal Palace: 6 corners, 2 conceded
− Sat 5.9. home vs Coventry: 4 corners, 5 conceded
Last season 6.5 corners in the match, 3.8 against
Next test Will a corner or free kick produce a goal in the coming rounds?
Line: line mid-level: 12 offsides drawn
Progression: progresses with control: 44.3 passes per shot (league 1./20 most), possession 64 %
Set pieces: in attack 37 corners (league 3./20), no headed goals yet; in defence 26 corners against (15./20), no headed goals conceded
Second half: output weighted to the second half (5+11 goals); own end tightens late (concessions 3+2); own threat grows in the second half (3.29 → 7.91 xG); opponents' threat holds (3.86 → 4.30 xG); first substitution on average at minute 62
When leading: the lead broke: 3 leads at half-time, the result did not hold (opponent xG 3.86 → 4.30)
The second half sharpens: Threat rose in the second half (xG 2nd – 1st half +4.62)
We track whether the second-half sharpening repeats: is it structure or the opponent.
| Finishing goals vs xG | Chance creation assists vs xA | |
| Defenders | −0.5 | +5.4 |
| Midfield | +7.7 | +3.1 |
| Forwards | +1.9 | +2.5 |
TEAM IDENTITY
Home ground
The Etihad Stadium was built for the 2002 Commonwealth Games, and City moved from Maine Road in 2003.
source: Manchester City FC (mancity.com), 2002 Commonwealth Games legacyTEAM MEMORY
Man City win the Champions League final in Istanbul 1-0 against Inter and complete the treble.
source: UEFA (uefa.com), Manchester City vs Inter, Mestarien liigan finaali 10.6.2023