MY CLUB
”Marching On Together”, marching on together
THE SQUAD
● season 2026-27 · latest formation · round 6
NEXT CHECK
LAST MATCH
Arsenal – Leeds 2–1 (half-time 0–0) · goals: Justin
PREVIEW IN HINDSIGHT
No preview was published before this match. The preview below was built after the match from pre-match data only (the same read would have been produced beforehand) and graded against what happened.
Watch first: Pressure vs the defence. Leeds shoot this season 12.2 times per match (15th in the league, last season 12.6 and 11th in the league), Arsenal: 10.6 shots conceded (league 2.). The match's shot count tells which number held.
What happened: between the readings: 11 shots (baseline 12.2, opponent concedes 10.6).
Then watch: Finishing vs the goalkeeper. Leeds score this season from 11.5 percent of their shots (8th in the league, last season 10.2 and 16th in the league), Arsenal: save percentage on shots on target 71.4 (league 8.). In the match this shows in whether the goal count matches the threat created.
What happened: the finishing held: 1 goals from 0.74 expected (+0.26), 9 % of shots scored.
Third: Set pieces. Leeds win this season 4.4 corners per match (9th in the league, last season 4.4 and 15th in the league), Arsenal: 3.2 corners conceded (league 20.). The expectation is at least 3 corners.
What happened: expectation met: 4 corners (expected 3), 1 goals.
Fourth: The duels carry. 54 % of duels won (299/555), league 1./20
What happened: Duels carry turned in this match: 45 % of duels won.
One more: Goalkeeper level on show. 20 saves (league 2./20) against 1.27 xG
What happened: Goalkeeper class showing repeated in this match: 4 saves.
Finally: Player pick. Jayden Bogle is the team's best in the match ratings this season: 24.4 points on average in 5 matches, top three 2 times.
What happened: Player pick did not hold: Jayden Bogle ranked 14/15 in his team's match ratings
And: Style of play. Progresses quickly: 31 passes per shot, the league's 3. most direct.
What happened: Style claim held: 32.4 passes per shot (league level 35.1).
From this match: 4/6 held
Result read from round data ●. Hits and misses are logged in the track record.
MANAGER'S CORNER · FANTASY
TEAM BASELINE
Duels have gone the team's way: 56 % of duels won (64/114) (Sun 30.8. home vs Brentford).
Last quarter hour · Leeds gained 3 points after the 75th minute.
Duels appear to carry this team's game.
+ Sun 30.8. home vs Brentford: 56 % of duels won (64/114)
− Sat 10.10. away vs Arsenal: 45 % of duels won (45/100)
Next test Will the duel-win rate stay above half even against a possession-dominant opponent?
Hypothesis 2 · Goalkeeper State · strengthening · 6 matches
The goalkeeper's level may prove the difference for this team.
Supports
+ Sun 30.8. home vs Brentford: 4 saves
+ Sun 20.9. home vs Crystal Palace: 5 saves
+ Mon 14.9. home vs Newcastle: 4 saves
+ Sat 5.9. away vs Brighton: 4 saves
+ Sat 10.10. away vs Arsenal: 4 saves
Challenges
− Sat 22.8. away vs Nottingham Forest: 3 saves
Last season 65 % of shots on target kept out (56 conceded / 162)
Next test Will the shot-stopping level hold when shot quality changes?
Hypothesis 3 · Defensive line State · strengthening · 5 matches
The defence appears to hold a high line.
Supports
+ Mon 14.9. home vs Newcastle: 3 offsides won
+ Sat 5.9. away vs Brighton: 4 offsides won
+ Sat 22.8. away vs Nottingham Forest: 3 offsides won
+ Sat 10.10. away vs Arsenal: 7 offsides won
Challenges
− Sun 30.8. home vs Brentford: 0 offsides won
Next test Will the offside trap keep working even against a more direct opponent?
Hypothesis 4 · Box pressure State · strengthening · 3 matches
The team appears to get into the box repeatedly.
Supports
+ Sun 20.9. home vs Crystal Palace: 9/13 shots from inside the box
+ Mon 14.9. home vs Newcastle: 10/15 shots from inside the box
+ Sat 5.9. away vs Brighton: 10/10 shots from inside the box
Challenges
No counter-evidence yet.
Last season 12.6 shots in the match (no box split from last season, so the comparison is shot count)
Next test Will shots in the box stay above eight when the opponent defends deeper?
Hypothesis 5 · Own box State · mixed · 6 matches
Opponents appear to get into the box too easily.
Supports
+ Sun 30.8. home vs Brentford: 18 shots against from inside the box (22 in total)
+ Sat 5.9. away vs Brighton: 11 shots against from inside the box (20 in total)
+ Sat 10.10. away vs Arsenal: 8 shots against from inside the box (13 in total)
Challenges
− Sun 20.9. home vs Crystal Palace: 4 shots against from inside the box (12 in total)
− Mon 14.9. home vs Newcastle: 4 shots against from inside the box (7 in total)
− Sat 22.8. away vs Nottingham Forest: 6 shots against from inside the box (12 in total)
Last season 12.5 shots against in the match (no box split)
Next test Will shots conceded inside the box fall below eight?
Hypothesis 6 · Threat by half State · mixed · 6 matches
The threat appears weighted towards the second half.
Supports
+ Sun 30.8. home vs Brentford: own threat 0.04 → 1.42 xG, opponents 0.55 → 1.01
+ Sun 20.9. home vs Crystal Palace: own threat 0.54 → 0.77 xG, opponents 0.18 → 0.88
+ Sat 22.8. away vs Nottingham Forest: own threat 0.18 → 0.31 xG, opponents 0.19 → 0.46
Challenges
− Mon 14.9. home vs Newcastle: own threat 1.49 → 0.59 xG, opponents 0.26 → 0.62
− Sat 5.9. away vs Brighton: own threat 1.90 → 0.60 xG, opponents 0.06 → 2.14
− Sat 10.10. away vs Arsenal: own threat 0.44 → 0.30 xG, opponents 0.45 → 2.21
Last season 51 % of goals came in the second half (25 / 49)
Next test Will the threat still grow from first half to second in a competitive match?
Hypothesis 7 · Shooting accuracy State · mixed · 6 matches
Shots don't appear to hit the target often enough.
Supports
+ Sun 30.8. home vs Brentford: 2/13 shots on target (15 %)
+ Sun 20.9. home vs Crystal Palace: 2/13 shots on target (15 %)
+ Sat 22.8. away vs Nottingham Forest: 3/11 shots on target (27 %)
Challenges
− Mon 14.9. home vs Newcastle: 6/15 shots on target (40 %)
− Sat 5.9. away vs Brighton: 5/10 shots on target (50 %)
− Sat 10.10. away vs Arsenal: 5/11 shots on target (45 %)
Last season 32 % of shots on target (151 / 478)
Next test Will the share of shots on target rise above a third?
Hypothesis 8 · Discipline State · mixed · 6 matches
The cost of indiscipline may rise.
Supports
+ Sun 20.9. home vs Crystal Palace: 2 cards, 10 fouls
+ Sat 5.9. away vs Brighton: 3 cards, 16 fouls
+ Sat 10.10. away vs Arsenal: 4 cards, 20 fouls
Challenges
− Sun 30.8. home vs Brentford: 0 cards, 5 fouls
− Mon 14.9. home vs Newcastle: 1 cards, 8 fouls
− Sat 22.8. away vs Nottingham Forest: 1 cards, 14 fouls
Last season 1.7 cards and 10.5 fouls in the match
Next test Will cards add up to suspensions, or fouls to goals conceded?
Hypothesis 9 · Finishing State · mixed · 4 matches
Goal output may keep falling short of the chances created.
Supports
+ Sun 20.9. home vs Crystal Palace: 0 goals from 1.31 expected (-1.31)
+ Sat 5.9. away vs Brighton: 1 goals from 2.49 expected (-1.49)
Challenges
− Mon 14.9. home vs Newcastle: 4 goals from 2.08 expected (+1.92)
− Sat 22.8. away vs Nottingham Forest: 1 goals from 0.49 expected (+0.51)
Last season 1.3 goals and 12.6 shots in the match, 10 % of shots scored
Next test Will the goal count move closer to the expected number in the next match?
Sun 30 Aug home vs Brentford · Threat by half + own threat 0.04 → 1.42 xG, opponents 0.55 → 1.01
Sun 30 Aug home vs Brentford · Goalkeeper + 4 saves
Sun 30 Aug home vs Brentford · Shooting accuracy + 2/13 shots on target (15 %)
Sun 30 Aug home vs Brentford · Defensive line − 0 offsides won
Sun 30 Aug home vs Brentford · Discipline − 0 cards, 5 fouls
Sun 30 Aug home vs Brentford · Duels + 56 % of duels won (64/114)
Sun 30 Aug home vs Brentford · Possession and duels − possession 47 %, duels 56 %
Sun 30 Aug home vs Brentford · Set pieces − 5 corners, 6 conceded
Sun 30 Aug home vs Brentford · Own box + 18 shots against from inside the box (22 in total)
Sun 20 Sep home vs Crystal Palace · Finishing + 0 goals from 1.31 expected (-1.31)
Sun 20 Sep home vs Crystal Palace · Threat by half + own threat 0.54 → 0.77 xG, opponents 0.18 → 0.88
Sun 20 Sep home vs Crystal Palace · Goalkeeper + 5 saves
Sun 20 Sep home vs Crystal Palace · Shooting accuracy + 2/13 shots on target (15 %)
Sun 20 Sep home vs Crystal Palace · Discipline + 2 cards, 10 fouls
Sun 20 Sep home vs Crystal Palace · Duels + 56 % of duels won (57/101)
Sun 20 Sep home vs Crystal Palace · Possession and duels − possession 51 %, duels 56 %
Sun 20 Sep home vs Crystal Palace · Own box − 4 shots against from inside the box (12 in total)
Sun 20 Sep home vs Crystal Palace · Box pressure + 9/13 shots from inside the box
Mon 14 Sep home vs Newcastle · Finishing − 4 goals from 2.08 expected (+1.92)
Mon 14 Sep home vs Newcastle · Threat by half − own threat 1.49 → 0.59 xG, opponents 0.26 → 0.62
Mon 14 Sep home vs Newcastle · Goalkeeper + 4 saves
Mon 14 Sep home vs Newcastle · Shooting accuracy − 6/15 shots on target (40 %)
Mon 14 Sep home vs Newcastle · Defensive line + 3 offsides won
Mon 14 Sep home vs Newcastle · Discipline − 1 cards, 8 fouls
Mon 14 Sep home vs Newcastle · Duels + 53 % of duels won (55/104)
Mon 14 Sep home vs Newcastle · Possession and duels − possession 50 %, duels 53 %
Mon 14 Sep home vs Newcastle · Set pieces − 5 corners, 5 conceded
Mon 14 Sep home vs Newcastle · Own box − 4 shots against from inside the box (7 in total)
Mon 14 Sep home vs Newcastle · Box pressure + 10/15 shots from inside the box
Sat 5 Sep away vs Brighton · Finishing + 1 goals from 2.49 expected (-1.49)
Sat 5 Sep away vs Brighton · Threat by half − own threat 1.90 → 0.60 xG, opponents 0.06 → 2.14
Sat 5 Sep away vs Brighton · Goalkeeper + 4 saves
Sat 5 Sep away vs Brighton · Shooting accuracy − 5/10 shots on target (50 %)
Sat 5 Sep away vs Brighton · Defensive line + 4 offsides won
Sat 5 Sep away vs Brighton · Discipline + 3 cards, 16 fouls
Sat 5 Sep away vs Brighton · Duels + 52 % of duels won (58/112)
Sat 5 Sep away vs Brighton · Possession and duels − possession 33 %, duels 52 %
Sat 5 Sep away vs Brighton · Set pieces − 6 corners, 7 conceded
Sat 5 Sep away vs Brighton · Own box + 11 shots against from inside the box (20 in total)
Sat 5 Sep away vs Brighton · Box pressure + 10/10 shots from inside the box
Sat 22 Aug away vs Nottingham Forest · Finishing − 1 goals from 0.49 expected (+0.51)
Sat 22 Aug away vs Nottingham Forest · Threat by half + own threat 0.18 → 0.31 xG, opponents 0.19 → 0.46
Sat 22 Aug away vs Nottingham Forest · Goalkeeper − 3 saves
Sat 22 Aug away vs Nottingham Forest · Shooting accuracy + 3/11 shots on target (27 %)
Sat 22 Aug away vs Nottingham Forest · Defensive line + 3 offsides won
Sat 22 Aug away vs Nottingham Forest · Discipline − 1 cards, 14 fouls
Sat 22 Aug away vs Nottingham Forest · Duels + 52 % of duels won (65/124)
Sat 22 Aug away vs Nottingham Forest · Possession and duels − possession 45 %, duels 52 %
Sat 22 Aug away vs Nottingham Forest · Own box − 6 shots against from inside the box (12 in total)
Sat 10 Oct away vs Arsenal · Threat by half − own threat 0.44 → 0.30 xG, opponents 0.45 → 2.21
Sat 10 Oct away vs Arsenal · Goalkeeper + 4 saves
Sat 10 Oct away vs Arsenal · Shooting accuracy − 5/11 shots on target (45 %)
Sat 10 Oct away vs Arsenal · Defensive line + 7 offsides won
Sat 10 Oct away vs Arsenal · Discipline + 4 cards, 20 fouls
Sat 10 Oct away vs Arsenal · Duels − 45 % of duels won (45/100)
Sat 10 Oct away vs Arsenal · Possession and duels − possession 42 %, duels 45 %
Sat 10 Oct away vs Arsenal · Set pieces − 4 corners, 3 conceded
Sat 10 Oct away vs Arsenal · Own box + 8 shots against from inside the box (13 in total)
Hypothesis 1 · Possession and duels State · closed · 6 matches
Possession may not be matched by duel wins.
Supports
No longer backed by the evidence.
Challenges
− Sun 30.8. home vs Brentford: possession 47 %, duels 56 %
− Sun 20.9. home vs Crystal Palace: possession 51 %, duels 56 %
− Mon 14.9. home vs Newcastle: possession 50 %, duels 53 %
− Sat 5.9. away vs Brighton: possession 33 %, duels 52 %
− Sat 22.8. away vs Nottingham Forest: possession 45 %, duels 52 %
− Sat 10.10. away vs Arsenal: possession 42 %, duels 45 %
Next test Will the duel balance flip when the opponent presses higher?
Hypothesis 2 · Set pieces State · closed · 4 matches
Set pieces may keep coming to nothing.
Supports
No longer backed by the evidence.
Challenges
− Sun 30.8. home vs Brentford: 5 corners, 6 conceded
− Mon 14.9. home vs Newcastle: 5 corners, 5 conceded
− Sat 5.9. away vs Brighton: 6 corners, 7 conceded
− Sat 10.10. away vs Arsenal: 4 corners, 3 conceded
Last season 4.4 corners in the match, 5.1 against
Next test Will a corner or free kick produce a goal in the coming rounds?
Line: high line: opponents caught offside 19 times (league 3./20)
Progression: progression mid-table: 29.6 passes per shot, possession 45 %
Set pieces: in attack 26 corners (league 12./20), no headed goals yet; in defence 27 corners against (12./20), no headed goals conceded
Second half: output weighted to the second half (3+5 goals); own end leaks late (concessions 1+4); own threat holds in the second half (4.59 → 3.99 xG); opponents' threat grows (1.69 → 7.32 xG); first substitution on average at minute 62
When leading: the lead broke: 2 leads at half-time, the result did not hold (opponent xG 1.69 → 7.32)
Goalkeeper level on show: 24 saves (league 2./20) against 1.50 xG
We track whether the save level holds as shot quality changes: one match cannot separate skill from luck.
| Finishing goals vs xG | Chance creation assists vs xA | |
| Defenders | −2.4 | −1.9 |
| Midfield | +2.6 | +6.0 |
| Forwards | −3.3 | −2.6 |
TEAM IDENTITY
Home ground
Elland Road has been Leeds' home since the club's founding in 1919, and was one of Euro 1996's eight stadiums.
source: Wikipedia, Elland RoadTEAM MEMORY
Leeds return to the Premier League after 16 years when West Bromwich lose to Huddersfield.
source: Premier League (premierleague.com), Leeds United win promotion to the Premier League