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Ipswich
THE SQUAD
● season 2026-27 · latest formation · round 6
NEXT CHECK
LAST MATCH
Ipswich – Fulham 2–1 (half-time 0–0) · goals: O'Shea, Ouattara
PREVIEW IN HINDSIGHT
No preview was published before this match. The preview below was built after the match from pre-match data only (the same read would have been produced beforehand) and graded against what happened.
Watch first: Pressure vs the defence. Ipswich shoot this season 11.6 times per match (16th in the league, not in the Premier League last season), Fulham: 16.6 shots conceded (league 16.). The match's shot count tells which number held.
What happened: the defence won: 11 shots (baseline 11.6, opponent concedes 16.6).
Then watch: Finishing vs the goalkeeper. Ipswich score this season from 12.1 percent of their shots (7th in the league, not in the Premier League last season), Fulham: save percentage on shots on target 66.7 (league 11.). In the match this shows in whether the goal count matches the threat created.
What happened: the finishing held: 2 goals from 1.22 expected (+0.78), 18 % of shots scored.
Third: Set pieces. Ipswich win this season 3.6 corners per match (16th in the league, not in the Premier League last season), Fulham: 5.2 corners conceded (league 4.). The expectation is at least 4 corners.
What happened: fell short of expectation: 2 corners (expected 4), 2 goals.
Fourth: The second half fades. Threat fell in the second half (xG 2nd – 1st half -0.81)
What happened: The second half fades turned in this match: threat 0.11 → 1.11 xG.
One more: Player pick. Emersonn is the team's best in the match ratings this season: 22.0 points on average in 5 matches, top three 2 times.
What happened: Player pick did not hold: Emersonn ranked 11/16 in his team's match ratings
From this match: 1/5 held
Result read from round data ●. Hits and misses are logged in the track record.
TEAM BASELINE
The box has been reached too easily: 19 shots against from inside the box (33 in total) (Sun 30.8. away vs Manchester United).
Last quarter hour · Ipswich gained 7 points after the 75th minute.
Opponents appear to get into the box too easily.
+ Sun 30.8. away vs Manchester United: 19 shots against from inside the box (33 in total)
− Fri 4.9. home vs Liverpool: 5 shots against from inside the box (10 in total)
Next test Will shots conceded inside the box fall below eight?
Other tracked hypotheses (4)
Hypothesis 2 · Discipline State · strengthening · 6 matches
The cost of indiscipline may rise.
Supports
+ Sun 30.8. away vs Manchester United: 3 cards, 12 fouls
+ Sat 19.9. away vs Everton: 4 cards, 12 fouls
+ Sat 12.9. away vs Crystal Palace: 3 cards, 16 fouls
+ Sat 10.10. home vs Fulham: 2 cards, 8 fouls
Challenges
− Fri 4.9. home vs Liverpool: 1 cards, 6 fouls
− Sat 22.8. home vs Sunderland: 0 cards, 12 fouls
Next test Will cards add up to suspensions, or fouls to goals conceded?
Hypothesis 3 · Box pressure State · strengthening · 3 matches
The team appears to get into the box repeatedly.
Supports
+ Sat 22.8. home vs Sunderland: 8/10 shots from inside the box
+ Sat 19.9. away vs Everton: 9/13 shots from inside the box
+ Sat 12.9. away vs Crystal Palace: 8/12 shots from inside the box
Challenges
No counter-evidence yet.
Next test Will shots in the box stay above eight when the opponent defends deeper?
Hypothesis 4 · Finishing State · mixed · 4 matches
Goal output may keep falling short of the chances created.
Supports
+ Fri 4.9. home vs Liverpool: 0 goals from 0.75 expected (-0.75)
+ Sat 19.9. away vs Everton: 0 goals from 1.44 expected (-1.44)
Challenges
− Sat 12.9. away vs Crystal Palace: 3 goals from 1.67 expected (+1.33)
− Sat 10.10. home vs Fulham: 2 goals from 1.22 expected (+0.78)
Next test Will the goal count move closer to the expected number in the next match?
Hypothesis 5 · Defensive line State · mixed · 4 matches
The defence appears to hold a high line.
Supports
+ Fri 4.9. home vs Liverpool: 4 offsides won
+ Sat 22.8. home vs Sunderland: 4 offsides won
Challenges
− Sun 30.8. away vs Manchester United: 0 offsides won
− Sat 12.9. away vs Crystal Palace: 0 offsides won
Next test Will the offside trap keep working even against a more direct opponent?
Show 56 findings
Sun 30 Aug away vs Manchester United · Threat by half + own threat 0.98 → 1.03 xG, opponents 0.74 → 3.83
Sun 30 Aug away vs Manchester United · Goalkeeper + 7 saves
Sun 30 Aug away vs Manchester United · Shooting accuracy − 5/9 shots on target (56 %)
Sun 30 Aug away vs Manchester United · Defensive line − 0 offsides won
Sun 30 Aug away vs Manchester United · Discipline + 3 cards, 12 fouls
Sun 30 Aug away vs Manchester United · Duels − 34 % of duels won (29/85)
Sun 30 Aug away vs Manchester United · Possession and duels − possession 40 %, duels 34 %
Sun 30 Aug away vs Manchester United · Set pieces − 4 corners, 8 conceded
Sun 30 Aug away vs Manchester United · Own box + 19 shots against from inside the box (33 in total)
Fri 4 Sep home vs Liverpool · Finishing + 0 goals from 0.75 expected (-0.75)
Fri 4 Sep home vs Liverpool · Threat by half − own threat 0.51 → 0.25 xG, opponents 0.42 → 0.26
Fri 4 Sep home vs Liverpool · Goalkeeper + 5 saves
Fri 4 Sep home vs Liverpool · Shooting accuracy − 5/14 shots on target (36 %)
Fri 4 Sep home vs Liverpool · Defensive line + 4 offsides won
Fri 4 Sep home vs Liverpool · Discipline − 1 cards, 6 fouls
Fri 4 Sep home vs Liverpool · Duels − 45 % of duels won (40/89)
Fri 4 Sep home vs Liverpool · Possession and duels − possession 45 %, duels 45 %
Fri 4 Sep home vs Liverpool · Own box − 5 shots against from inside the box (10 in total)
Sat 22 Aug home vs Sunderland · Threat by half − own threat 0.95 → 0.79 xG, opponents 0.58 → 0.17
Sat 22 Aug home vs Sunderland · Goalkeeper − 2 saves
Sat 22 Aug home vs Sunderland · Shooting accuracy + 3/10 shots on target (30 %)
Sat 22 Aug home vs Sunderland · Defensive line + 4 offsides won
Sat 22 Aug home vs Sunderland · Discipline − 0 cards, 12 fouls
Sat 22 Aug home vs Sunderland · Duels + 54 % of duels won (62/114)
Sat 22 Aug home vs Sunderland · Possession and duels − possession 38 %, duels 54 %
Sat 22 Aug home vs Sunderland · Set pieces − 3 corners, 5 conceded
Sat 22 Aug home vs Sunderland · Own box − 5 shots against from inside the box (11 in total)
Sat 22 Aug home vs Sunderland · Box pressure + 8/10 shots from inside the box
Sat 19 Sep away vs Everton · Finishing + 0 goals from 1.44 expected (-1.44)
Sat 19 Sep away vs Everton · Threat by half − own threat 0.86 → 0.58 xG, opponents 1.30 → 0.93
Sat 19 Sep away vs Everton · Goalkeeper − 1 saves
Sat 19 Sep away vs Everton · Shooting accuracy − 4/13 shots on target (31 %)
Sat 19 Sep away vs Everton · Discipline + 4 cards, 12 fouls
Sat 19 Sep away vs Everton · Duels − 47 % of duels won (41/87)
Sat 19 Sep away vs Everton · Possession and duels − possession 48 %, duels 47 %
Sat 19 Sep away vs Everton · Own box + 13 shots against from inside the box (21 in total)
Sat 19 Sep away vs Everton · Box pressure + 9/13 shots from inside the box
Sat 12 Sep away vs Crystal Palace · Finishing − 3 goals from 1.67 expected (+1.33)
Sat 12 Sep away vs Crystal Palace · Threat by half − own threat 0.92 → 0.76 xG, opponents 0.20 → 0.41
Sat 12 Sep away vs Crystal Palace · Goalkeeper − 2 saves
Sat 12 Sep away vs Crystal Palace · Shooting accuracy − 6/12 shots on target (50 %)
Sat 12 Sep away vs Crystal Palace · Defensive line − 0 offsides won
Sat 12 Sep away vs Crystal Palace · Discipline + 3 cards, 16 fouls
Sat 12 Sep away vs Crystal Palace · Duels − 44 % of duels won (39/89)
Sat 12 Sep away vs Crystal Palace · Possession and duels + possession 53 %, duels 44 %
Sat 12 Sep away vs Crystal Palace · Set pieces − 3 corners, 6 conceded
Sat 12 Sep away vs Crystal Palace · Own box + 9 shots against from inside the box (11 in total)
Sat 12 Sep away vs Crystal Palace · Box pressure + 8/12 shots from inside the box
Sat 10 Oct home vs Fulham · Finishing − 2 goals from 1.22 expected (+0.78)
Sat 10 Oct home vs Fulham · Threat by half + own threat 0.11 → 1.11 xG, opponents 0.48 → 1.39
Sat 10 Oct home vs Fulham · Goalkeeper − 3 saves
Sat 10 Oct home vs Fulham · Shooting accuracy − 5/11 shots on target (45 %)
Sat 10 Oct home vs Fulham · Discipline + 2 cards, 8 fouls
Sat 10 Oct home vs Fulham · Duels − 51 % of duels won (45/89)
Sat 10 Oct home vs Fulham · Possession and duels − possession 48 %, duels 51 %
Sat 10 Oct home vs Fulham · Own box + 9 shots against from inside the box (13 in total)
Suljetut hypoteesit (6)
Hypothesis 1 · Threat by half State · closed · 6 matches
The threat appears weighted towards the second half.
Supports
+ Sun 30.8. away vs Manchester United: own threat 0.98 → 1.03 xG, opponents 0.74 → 3.83
+ Sat 10.10. home vs Fulham: own threat 0.11 → 1.11 xG, opponents 0.48 → 1.39
Challenges
− Fri 4.9. home vs Liverpool: own threat 0.51 → 0.25 xG, opponents 0.42 → 0.26
− Sat 22.8. home vs Sunderland: own threat 0.95 → 0.79 xG, opponents 0.58 → 0.17
− Sat 19.9. away vs Everton: own threat 0.86 → 0.58 xG, opponents 1.30 → 0.93
− Sat 12.9. away vs Crystal Palace: own threat 0.92 → 0.76 xG, opponents 0.20 → 0.41
Next test Will the threat still grow from first half to second in a competitive match?
Hypothesis 2 · Goalkeeper State · closed · 6 matches
The goalkeeper's level may prove the difference for this team.
Supports
+ Sun 30.8. away vs Manchester United: 7 saves
+ Fri 4.9. home vs Liverpool: 5 saves
Challenges
− Sat 22.8. home vs Sunderland: 2 saves
− Sat 19.9. away vs Everton: 1 saves
− Sat 12.9. away vs Crystal Palace: 2 saves
− Sat 10.10. home vs Fulham: 3 saves
Next test Will the shot-stopping level hold when shot quality changes?
Hypothesis 3 · Duels State · closed · 6 matches
Duels appear to carry this team's game.
Supports
+ Sat 22.8. home vs Sunderland: 54 % of duels won (62/114)
Challenges
− Sun 30.8. away vs Manchester United: 34 % of duels won (29/85)
− Fri 4.9. home vs Liverpool: 45 % of duels won (40/89)
− Sat 19.9. away vs Everton: 47 % of duels won (41/87)
− Sat 12.9. away vs Crystal Palace: 44 % of duels won (39/89)
− Sat 10.10. home vs Fulham: 51 % of duels won (45/89)
Next test Will the duel-win rate stay above half even against a possession-dominant opponent?
Hypothesis 4 · Possession and duels State · closed · 6 matches
Possession may not be matched by duel wins.
Supports
+ Sat 12.9. away vs Crystal Palace: possession 53 %, duels 44 %
Challenges
− Sun 30.8. away vs Manchester United: possession 40 %, duels 34 %
− Fri 4.9. home vs Liverpool: possession 45 %, duels 45 %
− Sat 22.8. home vs Sunderland: possession 38 %, duels 54 %
− Sat 19.9. away vs Everton: possession 48 %, duels 47 %
− Sat 10.10. home vs Fulham: possession 48 %, duels 51 %
Next test Will the duel balance flip when the opponent presses higher?
Hypothesis 5 · Shooting accuracy State · closed · 6 matches
Shots don't appear to hit the target often enough.
Supports
+ Sat 22.8. home vs Sunderland: 3/10 shots on target (30 %)
Challenges
− Sun 30.8. away vs Manchester United: 5/9 shots on target (56 %)
− Fri 4.9. home vs Liverpool: 5/14 shots on target (36 %)
− Sat 19.9. away vs Everton: 4/13 shots on target (31 %)
− Sat 12.9. away vs Crystal Palace: 6/12 shots on target (50 %)
− Sat 10.10. home vs Fulham: 5/11 shots on target (45 %)
Next test Will the share of shots on target rise above a third?
Hypothesis 6 · Set pieces State · closed · 3 matches
Set pieces may keep coming to nothing.
Supports
No longer backed by the evidence.
Challenges
− Sun 30.8. away vs Manchester United: 4 corners, 8 conceded
− Sat 22.8. home vs Sunderland: 3 corners, 5 conceded
− Sat 12.9. away vs Crystal Palace: 3 corners, 6 conceded
Next test Will a corner or free kick produce a goal in the coming rounds?
Measured numbers for the season
Line: line mid-level: 10 offsides drawn
Progression: progression mid-table: 36.1 passes per shot, possession 45 %
Set pieces: in attack 20 corners (league 18./20), no headed goals yet; in defence 31 corners against (5./20), no headed goals conceded
Second half: output weighted to the second half (4+5 goals); own threat holds in the second half (4.33 → 4.52 xG); opponents' threat grows (3.72 → 6.99 xG); first substitution on average at minute 62
When leading: the lead broke: 1 lead at half-time, the result did not hold (opponent xG 3.72 → 6.99)
TEAM MEMORY
No verified club memory for this date.