MY CLUB
West London. Calm football. Patient support.
THE SQUAD
● season 2026-27 · latest formation · round 6
NEXT CHECK
LAST MATCH
Ipswich – Fulham 2–1 (half-time 0–0) · goals: Sessegnon
PREVIEW IN HINDSIGHT
No preview was published before this match. The preview below was built after the match from pre-match data only (the same read would have been produced beforehand) and graded against what happened.
Watch first: Pressure vs the defence. Fulham shoot this season 14.4 times per match (7th in the league, last season 12.7 and 10th in the league), Ipswich: 17.2 shots conceded (league 18.). The match's shot count tells which number held.
What happened: the defence won: 13 shots (baseline 14.4, opponent concedes 17.2).
Then watch: Finishing vs the goalkeeper. Fulham score this season from 6.9 percent of their shots (17th in the league, last season 9.8 and 18th in the league), Ipswich: save percentage on shots on target 60.7 (league 17.). In the match this shows in whether the goal count matches the threat created.
What happened: goalkeeping and finishing beat the team: 1 goals from 1.87 expected (-0.87), 8 % of shots scored.
Third: Rhythm of the two halves. Last season Fulham scored 62 percent of their goals in the second half, liigan taso 57 percent. If the gap holds, the threat grows late towards Fulham.
What happened: the second half was sharper: threat 0.48 → 1.39 xG, shots 7 → 6.
Fourth: Set pieces without output. 28 corners (league 5./20) and 5 goals
What happened: Set pieces without output turned in this match: 5 corners and 1 goals.
One more: Box pressure delivers. 53 shots from inside the box (league 5./20) and 5 goals, 70 shots in total (9./20)
What happened: Box pressure delivers turned in this match: 9 shots from the box, 1 goals, 11 shots against.
Finally: Player pick. Josh King is the team's best in the match ratings this season: 21.8 points on average in 5 matches, top three 2 times.
What happened: Player pick did not hold: Josh King ranked 5/16 in his team's match ratings
And: Style of play. High defensive line: opponents offside 2.6 times/match (league 3.).
What happened: Style claim did not hold: 0 offsides drawn (league level 1.5).
From this match: 1/7 held
Result read from round data ●. Hits and misses are logged in the track record.
MANAGER'S CORNER · FANTASY
▷ Sources: Evening Standard
TEAM BASELINE
Goal output has not followed the chances: 0 goals from 0.79 expected (-0.79) (Sun 30.8. away vs Sunderland).
Last quarter hour · Fulham dropped 6 points after the 75th minute.
Next match · vs Hull City: market probability ▷ Fulham 56 %, Hull City 20 %, even though in the table Fulham are 20th and Hull City 8th.
Goal output may keep falling short of the chances created.
+ Sun 30.8. away vs Sunderland: 0 goals from 0.79 expected (-0.79)
− Mon 24.8. home vs Chelsea: 2 goals from 1.35 expected (+0.65)
Last season 1.2 goals and 12.7 shots in the match, 10 % of shots scored
Next test Will the goal count move closer to the expected number in the next match?
Hypothesis 2 · Own box State · strengthening · 6 matches
Opponents appear to get into the box too easily.
Supports
+ Sun 30.8. away vs Sunderland: 9 shots against from inside the box (12 in total)
+ Sun 20.9. home vs Manchester United: 17 shots against from inside the box (29 in total)
+ Mon 24.8. home vs Chelsea: 13 shots against from inside the box (18 in total)
+ Sat 12.9. away vs Liverpool: 9 shots against from inside the box (14 in total)
Challenges
− Sat 5.9. home vs Crystal Palace: 7 shots against from inside the box (10 in total)
− Sat 10.10. away vs Ipswich: 7 shots against from inside the box (11 in total)
Last season 11.8 shots against in the match (no box split)
Next test Will shots conceded inside the box fall below eight?
Hypothesis 3 · Box pressure State · strengthening · 4 matches
The team appears to get into the box repeatedly.
Supports
+ Sun 20.9. home vs Manchester United: 11/12 shots from inside the box
+ Sat 5.9. home vs Crystal Palace: 22/25 shots from inside the box
+ Sat 12.9. away vs Liverpool: 8/10 shots from inside the box
+ Sat 10.10. away vs Ipswich: 9/13 shots from inside the box
Challenges
No counter-evidence yet.
Last season 12.7 shots in the match (no box split from last season, so the comparison is shot count)
Next test Will shots in the box stay above eight when the opponent defends deeper?
Hypothesis 4 · Possession and duels State · strengthening · 6 matches
Possession may not be matched by duel wins.
Supports
+ Sun 30.8. away vs Sunderland: possession 58 %, duels 43 %
+ Mon 24.8. home vs Chelsea: possession 61 %, duels 47 %
+ Sat 5.9. home vs Crystal Palace: possession 64 %, duels 45 %
+ Sat 10.10. away vs Ipswich: possession 52 %, duels 49 %
Challenges
− Sun 20.9. home vs Manchester United: possession 42 %, duels 49 %
− Sat 12.9. away vs Liverpool: possession 44 %, duels 48 %
Next test Will the duel balance flip when the opponent presses higher?
Hypothesis 5 · Discipline State · strengthening · 5 matches
The cost of indiscipline may rise.
Supports
+ Sun 30.8. away vs Sunderland: 2 cards, 15 fouls
+ Sun 20.9. home vs Manchester United: 3 cards, 9 fouls
+ Mon 24.8. home vs Chelsea: 2 cards, 12 fouls
+ Sat 10.10. away vs Ipswich: 4 cards, 10 fouls
Challenges
− Sat 12.9. away vs Liverpool: 1 cards, 8 fouls
Last season 2.0 cards and 10.9 fouls in the match
Next test Will cards add up to suspensions, or fouls to goals conceded?
Hypothesis 6 · Defensive line State · mixed · 3 matches
The defence appears to hold a high line.
Supports
+ Mon 24.8. home vs Chelsea: 3 offsides won
+ Sat 5.9. home vs Crystal Palace: 6 offsides won
Challenges
− Sat 10.10. away vs Ipswich: 0 offsides won
Next test Will the offside trap keep working even against a more direct opponent?
Sun 30 Aug away vs Sunderland · Finishing + 0 goals from 0.79 expected (-0.79)
Sun 30 Aug away vs Sunderland · Threat by half − own threat 0.46 → 0.32 xG, opponents 0.07 → 1.69
Sun 30 Aug away vs Sunderland · Goalkeeper − 3 saves
Sun 30 Aug away vs Sunderland · Shooting accuracy + 0/9 shots on target (0 %)
Sun 30 Aug away vs Sunderland · Discipline + 2 cards, 15 fouls
Sun 30 Aug away vs Sunderland · Duels − 43 % of duels won (42/97)
Sun 30 Aug away vs Sunderland · Possession and duels + possession 58 %, duels 43 %
Sun 30 Aug away vs Sunderland · Own box + 9 shots against from inside the box (12 in total)
Sun 20 Sep home vs Manchester United · Finishing + 1 goals from 1.62 expected (-0.62)
Sun 20 Sep home vs Manchester United · Threat by half − own threat 1.49 → 0.13 xG, opponents 1.06 → 0.54
Sun 20 Sep home vs Manchester United · Goalkeeper + 5 saves
Sun 20 Sep home vs Manchester United · Shooting accuracy − 6/12 shots on target (50 %)
Sun 20 Sep home vs Manchester United · Discipline + 3 cards, 9 fouls
Sun 20 Sep home vs Manchester United · Duels − 49 % of duels won (34/69)
Sun 20 Sep home vs Manchester United · Possession and duels − possession 42 %, duels 49 %
Sun 20 Sep home vs Manchester United · Set pieces − 3 corners, 13 conceded
Sun 20 Sep home vs Manchester United · Own box + 17 shots against from inside the box (29 in total)
Sun 20 Sep home vs Manchester United · Box pressure + 11/12 shots from inside the box
Mon 24 Aug home vs Chelsea · Finishing − 2 goals from 1.35 expected (+0.65)
Mon 24 Aug home vs Chelsea · Threat by half + own threat 0.44 → 0.92 xG, opponents 1.46 → 0.24
Mon 24 Aug home vs Chelsea · Goalkeeper − 3 saves
Mon 24 Aug home vs Chelsea · Shooting accuracy − 6/14 shots on target (43 %)
Mon 24 Aug home vs Chelsea · Defensive line + 3 offsides won
Mon 24 Aug home vs Chelsea · Discipline + 2 cards, 12 fouls
Mon 24 Aug home vs Chelsea · Duels − 47 % of duels won (49/104)
Mon 24 Aug home vs Chelsea · Possession and duels + possession 61 %, duels 47 %
Mon 24 Aug home vs Chelsea · Set pieces − 6 corners, 4 conceded
Mon 24 Aug home vs Chelsea · Own box + 13 shots against from inside the box (18 in total)
Sat 5 Sep home vs Crystal Palace · Finishing + 2 goals from 3.14 expected (-1.14)
Sat 5 Sep home vs Crystal Palace · Threat by half − own threat 1.60 → 1.54 xG, opponents 0.30 → 1.67
Sat 5 Sep home vs Crystal Palace · Goalkeeper − 2 saves
Sat 5 Sep home vs Crystal Palace · Shooting accuracy + 6/25 shots on target (24 %)
Sat 5 Sep home vs Crystal Palace · Defensive line + 6 offsides won
Sat 5 Sep home vs Crystal Palace · Duels − 45 % of duels won (36/80)
Sat 5 Sep home vs Crystal Palace · Possession and duels + possession 64 %, duels 45 %
Sat 5 Sep home vs Crystal Palace · Set pieces − 7 corners, 1 conceded
Sat 5 Sep home vs Crystal Palace · Own box − 7 shots against from inside the box (10 in total)
Sat 5 Sep home vs Crystal Palace · Box pressure + 22/25 shots from inside the box
Sat 12 Sep away vs Liverpool · Finishing + 0 goals from 0.70 expected (-0.70)
Sat 12 Sep away vs Liverpool · Threat by half − own threat 0.40 → 0.30 xG, opponents 0.52 → 0.76
Sat 12 Sep away vs Liverpool · Goalkeeper − 3 saves
Sat 12 Sep away vs Liverpool · Shooting accuracy − 4/10 shots on target (40 %)
Sat 12 Sep away vs Liverpool · Discipline − 1 cards, 8 fouls
Sat 12 Sep away vs Liverpool · Duels − 48 % of duels won (35/73)
Sat 12 Sep away vs Liverpool · Possession and duels − possession 44 %, duels 48 %
Sat 12 Sep away vs Liverpool · Set pieces + 8 corners, 5 conceded
Sat 12 Sep away vs Liverpool · Own box + 9 shots against from inside the box (14 in total)
Sat 12 Sep away vs Liverpool · Box pressure + 8/10 shots from inside the box
Sat 10 Oct away vs Ipswich · Finishing + 1 goals from 1.87 expected (-0.87)
Sat 10 Oct away vs Ipswich · Threat by half + own threat 0.48 → 1.39 xG, opponents 0.11 → 1.11
Sat 10 Oct away vs Ipswich · Goalkeeper − 3 saves
Sat 10 Oct away vs Ipswich · Shooting accuracy − 5/13 shots on target (38 %)
Sat 10 Oct away vs Ipswich · Defensive line − 0 offsides won
Sat 10 Oct away vs Ipswich · Discipline + 4 cards, 10 fouls
Sat 10 Oct away vs Ipswich · Duels − 49 % of duels won (44/89)
Sat 10 Oct away vs Ipswich · Possession and duels + possession 52 %, duels 49 %
Sat 10 Oct away vs Ipswich · Set pieces − 5 corners, 2 conceded
Sat 10 Oct away vs Ipswich · Own box − 7 shots against from inside the box (11 in total)
Sat 10 Oct away vs Ipswich · Box pressure + 9/13 shots from inside the box
Hypothesis 1 · Shooting accuracy State · closed · 6 matches
Shots don't appear to hit the target often enough.
Supports
+ Sun 30.8. away vs Sunderland: 0/9 shots on target (0 %)
+ Sat 5.9. home vs Crystal Palace: 6/25 shots on target (24 %)
Challenges
− Sun 20.9. home vs Manchester United: 6/12 shots on target (50 %)
− Mon 24.8. home vs Chelsea: 6/14 shots on target (43 %)
− Sat 12.9. away vs Liverpool: 4/10 shots on target (40 %)
− Sat 10.10. away vs Ipswich: 5/13 shots on target (38 %)
Last season 29 % of shots on target (138 / 481)
Next test Will the share of shots on target rise above a third?
Hypothesis 2 · Threat by half State · closed · 6 matches
The threat appears weighted towards the second half.
Supports
+ Mon 24.8. home vs Chelsea: own threat 0.44 → 0.92 xG, opponents 1.46 → 0.24
+ Sat 10.10. away vs Ipswich: own threat 0.48 → 1.39 xG, opponents 0.11 → 1.11
Challenges
− Sun 30.8. away vs Sunderland: own threat 0.46 → 0.32 xG, opponents 0.07 → 1.69
− Sun 20.9. home vs Manchester United: own threat 1.49 → 0.13 xG, opponents 1.06 → 0.54
− Sat 5.9. home vs Crystal Palace: own threat 1.60 → 1.54 xG, opponents 0.30 → 1.67
− Sat 12.9. away vs Liverpool: own threat 0.40 → 0.30 xG, opponents 0.52 → 0.76
Last season 62 % of goals came in the second half (29 / 47)
Next test Will the threat still grow from first half to second in a competitive match?
Hypothesis 3 · Set pieces State · closed · 5 matches
Set pieces may keep coming to nothing.
Supports
+ Sat 12.9. away vs Liverpool: 8 corners, 5 conceded
Challenges
− Sun 20.9. home vs Manchester United: 3 corners, 13 conceded
− Mon 24.8. home vs Chelsea: 6 corners, 4 conceded
− Sat 5.9. home vs Crystal Palace: 7 corners, 1 conceded
− Sat 10.10. away vs Ipswich: 5 corners, 2 conceded
Last season 4.9 corners in the match, 5.5 against
Next test Will a corner or free kick produce a goal in the coming rounds?
Hypothesis 4 · Goalkeeper State · closed · 6 matches
The goalkeeper's level may prove the difference for this team.
Supports
+ Sun 20.9. home vs Manchester United: 5 saves
Challenges
− Sun 30.8. away vs Sunderland: 3 saves
− Mon 24.8. home vs Chelsea: 3 saves
− Sat 5.9. home vs Crystal Palace: 2 saves
− Sat 12.9. away vs Liverpool: 3 saves
− Sat 10.10. away vs Ipswich: 3 saves
Last season 66 % of shots on target kept out (51 conceded / 149)
Next test Will the shot-stopping level hold when shot quality changes?
Hypothesis 5 · Duels State · closed · 6 matches
Duels appear to carry this team's game.
Supports
No longer backed by the evidence.
Challenges
− Sun 30.8. away vs Sunderland: 43 % of duels won (42/97)
− Sun 20.9. home vs Manchester United: 49 % of duels won (34/69)
− Mon 24.8. home vs Chelsea: 47 % of duels won (49/104)
− Sat 5.9. home vs Crystal Palace: 45 % of duels won (36/80)
− Sat 12.9. away vs Liverpool: 48 % of duels won (35/73)
− Sat 10.10. away vs Ipswich: 49 % of duels won (44/89)
Next test Will the duel-win rate stay above half even against a possession-dominant opponent?
Line: line mid-level: 13 offsides drawn
Progression: cannot get shots off: 38.8 passes per shot (league's 2./20 most) without controlling the ball, possession 54 %
Set pieces: in attack 33 corners (league 5./20), no headed goals yet; in defence 28 corners against (11./20), no headed goals conceded
Second half: own end leaks late (concessions 3+7); own threat holds in the second half (4.87 → 4.60 xG); opponents' threat grows (3.52 → 6.01 xG); first substitution on average at minute 67.
When leading: the lead broke: 1 lead at half-time, the result did not hold (opponent xG 3.52 → 6.01)
Attacking inefficiency: 6 goals from 9.47 expected (xG), a gap of -3.47, league 17./20
We track whether the finishing corrects or the deficit continues: the same metric is read after every round.
Set pieces without output: 33 corners (league 5./20) and 6 goals
We track whether set pieces start producing goals or the pressure stays barren.
| Finishing goals vs xG | Chance creation assists vs xA | |
| Defenders | −1.3 | −5.9 |
| Midfield | +3.0 | +3.1 |
| Forwards | −4.4 | +2.1 |
TEAM IDENTITY
Home ground
Fulham played their first official match at Craven Cottage on 10.10.1896.
source: Wikipedia, Craven CottageTEAM CULTURE
Klassinen Fulham
Quiet confidence.Signals · approved by the desk
TEAM MEMORY
Fulham St Andrew's Church Sunday School founds the club.
source: Fulham FC (fulhamfc.com), club history