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THE SQUAD
● season 2026-27 · latest formation · round 6
NEXT CHECK
LAST MATCH
Crystal Palace – Nott'm Forest 3–1 (half-time 2–1) · goals: Kamada, Lerma, Yeremy
PREVIEW IN HINDSIGHT
No preview was published before this match. The preview below was built after the match from pre-match data only (the same read would have been produced beforehand) and graded against what happened.
Watch first: Pressure vs the defence. Crystal Palace shoot this season 10.6 times per match (17th in the league, last season 11.6 and 13th in the league), Nott'm Forest: 10.4 shots conceded (league 1.). The match's shot count tells which number held.
What happened: the pressure held: 13 shots (baseline 10.6, opponent concedes 10.4).
Then watch: Finishing vs the goalkeeper. Crystal Palace score this season from 11.3 percent of their shots (9th in the league, last season 9.3 and 19th in the league), Nott'm Forest: save percentage on shots on target 66.7 (league 10.). In the match this shows in whether the goal count matches the threat created.
What happened: the finishing held: 3 goals from 2.42 expected (+0.58), 23 % of shots scored.
Third: Set pieces. Crystal Palace win this season 2.4 corners per match (20th in the league, last season 4.2 and 17th in the league), Nott'm Forest: 4.6 corners conceded (league 11.). The expectation is at least 2 corners.
What happened: expectation met: 5 corners (expected 2), 3 goals.
Fourth: The whole system at the bottom end. Possession 44 % (league 18./20), own output 1.25 xG and 1.75 xG given to opponents (4./20 most): 3 metrics at the bottom end at once
What happened: The whole system at the bottom end turned in this match: possession 43 %, 3 goals.
One more: Opponents get into the box. 62 shots against from inside the box (1st most of 20), 84 shots in total (74 % from the box)
What happened: Opponents get into the box repeated in this match: 16 shots against from inside the box.
Finally: Player pick. Daichi Kamada is the team's best in the match ratings this season: 21.8 points on average in 5 matches, top three 4 times.
What happened: Player pick held: Daichi Kamada was among his team's best in match ratings (3/15) and produced 1+0.
From this match: 5/6 held
Result read from round data ●. Hits and misses are logged in the track record.
MANAGER'S CORNER · FANTASY
TEAM BASELINE
The box has been reached too easily: 9 shots against from inside the box (13 in total) (Sun 20.9. away vs Leeds).
Opponents appear to get into the box too easily.
+ Sun 20.9. away vs Leeds: 9 shots against from inside the box (13 in total)
Last season 11.7 shots against in the match (no box split)
Next test Will shots conceded inside the box fall below eight?
Hypothesis 2 · Box pressure State · strengthening · 3 matches
The team appears to get into the box repeatedly.
Supports
+ Sun 11.10. home vs Nottingham Forest: 11/13 shots from inside the box
+ Sat 22.8. away vs Everton: 8/11 shots from inside the box
+ Sat 12.9. home vs Ipswich: 9/11 shots from inside the box
Challenges
No counter-evidence yet.
Last season 11.6 shots in the match (no box split from last season, so the comparison is shot count)
Next test Will shots in the box stay above eight when the opponent defends deeper?
Hypothesis 3 · Discipline State · strengthening · 5 matches
The cost of indiscipline may rise.
Supports
+ Sun 20.9. away vs Leeds: 3 cards, 12 fouls
+ Sun 11.10. home vs Nottingham Forest: 2 cards, 11 fouls
+ Sat 12.9. home vs Ipswich: 2 cards, 6 fouls
Challenges
− Fri 28.8. home vs Manchester City: 1 cards, 8 fouls
− Sat 22.8. away vs Everton: 1 cards, 15 fouls
Last season 2.0 cards and 10.5 fouls in the match
Next test Will cards add up to suspensions, or fouls to goals conceded?
Hypothesis 4 · Threat by half State · mixed · 6 matches
The threat appears weighted towards the second half.
Supports
+ Sun 20.9. away vs Leeds: own threat 0.18 → 0.88 xG, opponents 0.54 → 0.77
+ Sat 5.9. away vs Fulham: own threat 0.30 → 1.67 xG, opponents 1.60 → 1.54
+ Sat 12.9. home vs Ipswich: own threat 0.20 → 0.41 xG, opponents 0.92 → 0.76
Challenges
− Sun 11.10. home vs Nottingham Forest: own threat 1.41 → 1.01 xG, opponents 2.18 → 0.80
− Fri 28.8. home vs Manchester City: own threat 0.30 → 0.27 xG, opponents 0.85 → 0.61
− Sat 22.8. away vs Everton: own threat 1.65 → 0.39 xG, opponents 0.31 → 0.85
Last season 51 % of goals came in the second half (21 / 41)
Next test Will the threat still grow from first half to second in a competitive match?
Hypothesis 5 · Goalkeeper State · mixed · 6 matches
The goalkeeper's level may prove the difference for this team.
Supports
+ Sun 11.10. home vs Nottingham Forest: 4 saves
+ Fri 28.8. home vs Manchester City: 4 saves
+ Sat 5.9. away vs Fulham: 5 saves
Challenges
− Sun 20.9. away vs Leeds: 2 saves
− Sat 22.8. away vs Everton: 3 saves
− Sat 12.9. home vs Ipswich: 3 saves
Last season 69 % of shots on target kept out (51 conceded / 162)
Next test Will the shot-stopping level hold when shot quality changes?
Hypothesis 6 · Set pieces State · declining · 2 matches
Set pieces may keep coming to nothing.
Supports
No longer backed by the evidence.
Challenges
− Sun 11.10. home vs Nottingham Forest: 5 corners, 8 conceded
− Sat 12.9. home vs Ipswich: 6 corners, 3 conceded
Last season 4.2 corners in the match, 5.2 against
Next test Will a corner or free kick produce a goal in the coming rounds?
Hypothesis 7 · Defensive line Status · fading · 1 match
The defence appears to hold a high line.
Supports
No longer backed by the evidence.
Challenges
− Fri 28.8. home vs Manchester City: 0 offsides won
Next test Will the offside trap keep working even against a more direct opponent?
Sun 20 Sep away vs Leeds · Finishing + 0 goals from 1.06 expected (-1.06)
Sun 20 Sep away vs Leeds · Threat by half + own threat 0.18 → 0.88 xG, opponents 0.54 → 0.77
Sun 20 Sep away vs Leeds · Goalkeeper − 2 saves
Sun 20 Sep away vs Leeds · Shooting accuracy − 4/12 shots on target (33 %)
Sun 20 Sep away vs Leeds · Discipline + 3 cards, 12 fouls
Sun 20 Sep away vs Leeds · Duels − 44 % of duels won (44/101)
Sun 20 Sep away vs Leeds · Possession and duels − possession 49 %, duels 44 %
Sun 20 Sep away vs Leeds · Own box + 9 shots against from inside the box (13 in total)
Sun 11 Oct home vs Nottingham Forest · Finishing − 3 goals from 2.42 expected (+0.58)
Sun 11 Oct home vs Nottingham Forest · Threat by half − own threat 1.41 → 1.01 xG, opponents 2.18 → 0.80
Sun 11 Oct home vs Nottingham Forest · Goalkeeper + 4 saves
Sun 11 Oct home vs Nottingham Forest · Shooting accuracy − 7/13 shots on target (54 %)
Sun 11 Oct home vs Nottingham Forest · Discipline + 2 cards, 11 fouls
Sun 11 Oct home vs Nottingham Forest · Duels − 51 % of duels won (50/98)
Sun 11 Oct home vs Nottingham Forest · Possession and duels − possession 43 %, duels 51 %
Sun 11 Oct home vs Nottingham Forest · Set pieces − 5 corners, 8 conceded
Sun 11 Oct home vs Nottingham Forest · Own box + 16 shots against from inside the box (24 in total)
Sun 11 Oct home vs Nottingham Forest · Box pressure + 11/13 shots from inside the box
Fri 28 Aug home vs Manchester City · Threat by half − own threat 0.30 → 0.27 xG, opponents 0.85 → 0.61
Fri 28 Aug home vs Manchester City · Goalkeeper + 4 saves
Fri 28 Aug home vs Manchester City · Shooting accuracy + 1/9 shots on target (11 %)
Fri 28 Aug home vs Manchester City · Defensive line − 0 offsides won
Fri 28 Aug home vs Manchester City · Discipline − 1 cards, 8 fouls
Fri 28 Aug home vs Manchester City · Duels − 51 % of duels won (55/107)
Fri 28 Aug home vs Manchester City · Possession and duels − possession 28 %, duels 51 %
Fri 28 Aug home vs Manchester City · Own box + 12 shots against from inside the box (18 in total)
Sat 5 Sep away vs Fulham · Finishing − 3 goals from 1.97 expected (+1.03)
Sat 5 Sep away vs Fulham · Threat by half + own threat 0.30 → 1.67 xG, opponents 1.60 → 1.54
Sat 5 Sep away vs Fulham · Goalkeeper + 5 saves
Sat 5 Sep away vs Fulham · Shooting accuracy − 5/10 shots on target (50 %)
Sat 5 Sep away vs Fulham · Duels + 55 % of duels won (44/80)
Sat 5 Sep away vs Fulham · Possession and duels − possession 36 %, duels 55 %
Sat 5 Sep away vs Fulham · Own box + 22 shots against from inside the box (25 in total)
Sat 22 Aug away vs Everton · Finishing + 0 goals from 2.04 expected (-2.04)
Sat 22 Aug away vs Everton · Threat by half − own threat 1.65 → 0.39 xG, opponents 0.31 → 0.85
Sat 22 Aug away vs Everton · Goalkeeper − 3 saves
Sat 22 Aug away vs Everton · Shooting accuracy − 4/11 shots on target (36 %)
Sat 22 Aug away vs Everton · Discipline − 1 cards, 15 fouls
Sat 22 Aug away vs Everton · Duels − 46 % of duels won (46/99)
Sat 22 Aug away vs Everton · Possession and duels + possession 58 %, duels 46 %
Sat 22 Aug away vs Everton · Own box + 11 shots against from inside the box (16 in total)
Sat 22 Aug away vs Everton · Box pressure + 8/11 shots from inside the box
Sat 12 Sep home vs Ipswich · Finishing − 2 goals from 0.62 expected (+1.38)
Sat 12 Sep home vs Ipswich · Threat by half + own threat 0.20 → 0.41 xG, opponents 0.92 → 0.76
Sat 12 Sep home vs Ipswich · Goalkeeper − 3 saves
Sat 12 Sep home vs Ipswich · Shooting accuracy − 4/11 shots on target (36 %)
Sat 12 Sep home vs Ipswich · Discipline + 2 cards, 6 fouls
Sat 12 Sep home vs Ipswich · Duels + 56 % of duels won (50/89)
Sat 12 Sep home vs Ipswich · Possession and duels − possession 47 %, duels 56 %
Sat 12 Sep home vs Ipswich · Set pieces − 6 corners, 3 conceded
Sat 12 Sep home vs Ipswich · Own box + 8 shots against from inside the box (12 in total)
Sat 12 Sep home vs Ipswich · Box pressure + 9/11 shots from inside the box
Hypothesis 1 · Finishing State · closed · 5 matches
Goal output may keep falling short of the chances created.
Supports
+ Sun 20.9. away vs Leeds: 0 goals from 1.06 expected (-1.06)
+ Sat 22.8. away vs Everton: 0 goals from 2.04 expected (-2.04)
Challenges
− Sun 11.10. home vs Nottingham Forest: 3 goals from 2.42 expected (+0.58)
− Sat 5.9. away vs Fulham: 3 goals from 1.97 expected (+1.03)
− Sat 12.9. home vs Ipswich: 2 goals from 0.62 expected (+1.38)
Last season 1.1 goals and 11.6 shots in the match, 9 % of shots scored
Next test Will the goal count move closer to the expected number in the next match?
Hypothesis 2 · Duels State · closed · 6 matches
Duels appear to carry this team's game.
Supports
+ Sat 5.9. away vs Fulham: 55 % of duels won (44/80)
+ Sat 12.9. home vs Ipswich: 56 % of duels won (50/89)
Challenges
− Sun 20.9. away vs Leeds: 44 % of duels won (44/101)
− Sun 11.10. home vs Nottingham Forest: 51 % of duels won (50/98)
− Fri 28.8. home vs Manchester City: 51 % of duels won (55/107)
− Sat 22.8. away vs Everton: 46 % of duels won (46/99)
Next test Will the duel-win rate stay above half even against a possession-dominant opponent?
Hypothesis 3 · Shooting accuracy State · closed · 6 matches
Shots don't appear to hit the target often enough.
Supports
+ Fri 28.8. home vs Manchester City: 1/9 shots on target (11 %)
Challenges
− Sun 20.9. away vs Leeds: 4/12 shots on target (33 %)
− Sun 11.10. home vs Nottingham Forest: 7/13 shots on target (54 %)
− Sat 5.9. away vs Fulham: 5/10 shots on target (50 %)
− Sat 22.8. away vs Everton: 4/11 shots on target (36 %)
− Sat 12.9. home vs Ipswich: 4/11 shots on target (36 %)
Last season 32 % of shots on target (141 / 442)
Next test Will the share of shots on target rise above a third?
Hypothesis 4 · Possession and duels State · closed · 6 matches
Possession may not be matched by duel wins.
Supports
+ Sat 22.8. away vs Everton: possession 58 %, duels 46 %
Challenges
− Sun 20.9. away vs Leeds: possession 49 %, duels 44 %
− Sun 11.10. home vs Nottingham Forest: possession 43 %, duels 51 %
− Fri 28.8. home vs Manchester City: possession 28 %, duels 51 %
− Sat 5.9. away vs Fulham: possession 36 %, duels 55 %
− Sat 12.9. home vs Ipswich: possession 47 %, duels 56 %
Next test Will the duel balance flip when the opponent presses higher?
Line: deep line: the offside trap sprang only 7 times (17./20); box open: 72 % of shots conceded came from inside the box
Progression: progression mid-table: 36.8 passes per shot, possession 44 %
Set pieces: in attack 17 corners (league 19./20), no headed goals yet; in defence 32 corners against (3./20), no headed goals conceded
Second half: output weighted to the second half (3+6 goals); own end tightens late (concessions 7+5); own threat holds in the second half (4.04 → 4.63 xG); opponents' threat holds (6.40 → 5.33 xG); first substitution on average at minute 53 (forced reaction)
Opponents get into the box: 78 shots against from inside the box (1st most of 20), 108 shots in total (72 % from the box)
We track whether the number of shots conceded in the box narrows: leaking the box predicts goals conceded over a longer sample.
| Finishing goals vs xG | Chance creation assists vs xA | |
| Defenders | −2.0 | −1.7 |
| Midfield | −11.5 | −9.4 |
| Forwards | −3.5 | −3.7 |
TEAM IDENTITY
Home ground
Selhurst Park opened on 30.8.1924, and Palace played their first match there against Sheffield Wednesday.
source: Crystal Palace FC (cpfc.co.uk), Selhurst Park formally opened 1924TEAM MEMORY
Crystal Palace are founded at the Crystal Palace exhibition grounds in Sydenham. The club move to Selhurst Park only in 1924.
source: Crystal Palace FC (cpfc.co.uk), Our history