”I am European champion. I am not one out of the bottle. I think I am a special one.”
José Mourinho, unveiling at Stamford Bridge 2.6.2004
THE SQUAD
● season 2026-27 · latest formation · round 6
NEXT CHECK
LAST MATCH
Chelsea – Bournemouth 5–1 (half-time 2–0) · goals: Henderson 2, João Pedro 2, Rogers
PREVIEW IN HINDSIGHT
No preview was published before this match. The preview below was built after the match from pre-match data only (the same read would have been produced beforehand) and graded against what happened.
Watch first: Pressure vs the defence. Chelsea shoot this season 14.4 times per match (8th in the league, last season 13.4 and 6th in the league), Bournemouth: 10.8 shots conceded (league 4.). The match's shot count tells which number held.
What happened: the defence won: 10 shots (baseline 14.4, opponent concedes 10.8).
Then watch: Finishing vs the goalkeeper. Chelsea score this season from 13.9 percent of their shots (4th in the league, last season 11.3 and 7th in the league), Bournemouth: save percentage on shots on target 60.0 (league 18.). In the match this shows in whether the goal count matches the threat created.
What happened: the finishing held: 5 goals from 1.16 expected (+3.84), 50 % of shots scored.
Third: Set pieces. Chelsea win this season 6.6 corners per match (3rd in the league, last season 6.1 and 4th in the league), Bournemouth: 4.6 corners conceded (league 14.). The expectation is at least 5 corners.
What happened: fell short of expectation: 1 corners (expected 5), 5 goals.
Fourth: The duels carry. 54 % of duels won (243/451), league 2./20
What happened: Duels carry repeated in this match: 55 % of duels won.
One more: Goalkeeper level on show. 22 saves (league 1./20) against 1.80 xG
What happened: Goalkeeper class showing turned in this match: 3 saves.
Finally: Player pick. João Pedro is the team's best in the match ratings this season: 35.2 points on average in 4 matches, top three 3 times.
What happened: Player pick held: João Pedro was among his team's best in match ratings (2/16) and produced 2+0.
And: Style of play. Patient build-up: 40 passes per shot (league's 2. most).
What happened: Style claim held: 48.8 passes per shot (league level 35.1).
From this match: 4/7 held
Result read from round data ●. Hits and misses are logged in the track record.
MANAGER'S CORNER · FANTASY
TEAM BASELINE
Duels have gone the team's way: 54 % of duels won (43/79) (Sun 30.8. home vs Brighton).
Duels appear to carry this team's game.
+ Sun 30.8. home vs Brighton: 54 % of duels won (43/79)
− Sun 6.9. away vs Arsenal: 51 % of duels won (43/85)
Next test Will the duel-win rate stay above half even against a possession-dominant opponent?
Hypothesis 2 · Own box State · strengthening · 6 matches
Opponents appear to get into the box too easily.
Supports
+ Sun 6.9. away vs Arsenal: 13 shots against from inside the box (16 in total)
+ Sun 30.8. home vs Brighton: 13 shots against from inside the box (15 in total)
+ Fri 18.9. away vs Brentford: 9 shots against from inside the box (13 in total)
+ Sat 12.9. home vs Hull City: 9 shots against from inside the box (14 in total)
Challenges
− Mon 24.8. away vs Fulham: 7 shots against from inside the box (14 in total)
− Sat 10.10. home vs Bournemouth: 6 shots against from inside the box (9 in total)
Last season 10.9 shots against in the match (no box split)
Next test Will shots conceded inside the box fall below eight?
Hypothesis 3 · Threat by half State · strengthening · 6 matches
The threat appears weighted towards the second half.
Supports
+ Sun 6.9. away vs Arsenal: own threat 0.15 → 0.24 xG, opponents 1.17 → 0.88
+ Fri 18.9. away vs Brentford: own threat 0.39 → 0.44 xG, opponents 0.39 → 2.26
+ Sat 12.9. home vs Hull City: own threat 0.18 → 0.72 xG, opponents 0.44 → 0.94
+ Sat 10.10. home vs Bournemouth: own threat 0.50 → 0.66 xG, opponents 0.37 → 1.15
Challenges
− Sun 30.8. home vs Brighton: own threat 1.93 → 1.04 xG, opponents 1.06 → 0.50
− Mon 24.8. away vs Fulham: own threat 1.46 → 0.24 xG, opponents 0.44 → 0.92
Last season 55 % of goals came in the second half (32 / 58)
Next test Will the threat still grow from first half to second in a competitive match?
Hypothesis 4 · Box pressure State · strengthening · 3 matches
The team appears to get into the box repeatedly.
Supports
+ Sun 30.8. home vs Brighton: 15/17 shots from inside the box
+ Fri 18.9. away vs Brentford: 8/12 shots from inside the box
+ Mon 24.8. away vs Fulham: 13/18 shots from inside the box
Challenges
No counter-evidence yet.
Last season 13.4 shots in the match (no box split from last season, so the comparison is shot count)
Next test Will shots in the box stay above eight when the opponent defends deeper?
Hypothesis 5 · Goalkeeper State · mixed · 6 matches
The goalkeeper's level may prove the difference for this team.
Supports
+ Sun 6.9. away vs Arsenal: 8 saves
+ Sun 30.8. home vs Brighton: 4 saves
+ Mon 24.8. away vs Fulham: 4 saves
Challenges
− Fri 18.9. away vs Brentford: 3 saves
− Sat 12.9. home vs Hull City: 3 saves
− Sat 10.10. home vs Bournemouth: 3 saves
Last season 67 % of shots on target kept out (52 conceded / 156)
Next test Will the shot-stopping level hold when shot quality changes?
Hypothesis 6 · Defensive line State · declining · 3 matches
The defence appears to hold a high line.
Supports
+ Sun 6.9. away vs Arsenal: 3 offsides won
Challenges
− Mon 24.8. away vs Fulham: 0 offsides won
− Sat 10.10. home vs Bournemouth: 0 offsides won
Next test Will the offside trap keep working even against a more direct opponent?
Sun 6 Sep away vs Arsenal · Finishing − 1 goals from 0.39 expected (+0.61)
Sun 6 Sep away vs Arsenal · Threat by half + own threat 0.15 → 0.24 xG, opponents 1.17 → 0.88
Sun 6 Sep away vs Arsenal · Goalkeeper + 8 saves
Sun 6 Sep away vs Arsenal · Shooting accuracy − 5/13 shots on target (38 %)
Sun 6 Sep away vs Arsenal · Defensive line + 3 offsides won
Sun 6 Sep away vs Arsenal · Discipline + 4 cards, 16 fouls
Sun 6 Sep away vs Arsenal · Duels − 51 % of duels won (43/85)
Sun 6 Sep away vs Arsenal · Possession and duels − possession 45 %, duels 51 %
Sun 6 Sep away vs Arsenal · Set pieces − 3 corners, 5 conceded
Sun 6 Sep away vs Arsenal · Own box + 13 shots against from inside the box (16 in total)
Sun 30 Aug home vs Brighton · Finishing − 4 goals from 2.97 expected (+1.03)
Sun 30 Aug home vs Brighton · Threat by half − own threat 1.93 → 1.04 xG, opponents 1.06 → 0.50
Sun 30 Aug home vs Brighton · Goalkeeper + 4 saves
Sun 30 Aug home vs Brighton · Shooting accuracy − 6/17 shots on target (35 %)
Sun 30 Aug home vs Brighton · Discipline − 1 cards, 6 fouls
Sun 30 Aug home vs Brighton · Duels + 54 % of duels won (43/79)
Sun 30 Aug home vs Brighton · Possession and duels − possession 26 %, duels 54 %
Sun 30 Aug home vs Brighton · Set pieces − 4 corners, 7 conceded
Sun 30 Aug home vs Brighton · Own box + 13 shots against from inside the box (15 in total)
Sun 30 Aug home vs Brighton · Box pressure + 15/17 shots from inside the box
Fri 18 Sep away vs Brentford · Finishing + 0 goals from 0.83 expected (-0.83)
Fri 18 Sep away vs Brentford · Threat by half + own threat 0.39 → 0.44 xG, opponents 0.39 → 2.26
Fri 18 Sep away vs Brentford · Goalkeeper − 3 saves
Fri 18 Sep away vs Brentford · Shooting accuracy + 2/12 shots on target (17 %)
Fri 18 Sep away vs Brentford · Discipline − 0 cards, 7 fouls
Fri 18 Sep away vs Brentford · Duels + 57 % of duels won (55/96)
Fri 18 Sep away vs Brentford · Possession and duels − possession 60 %, duels 57 %
Fri 18 Sep away vs Brentford · Set pieces + 12 corners, 4 conceded
Fri 18 Sep away vs Brentford · Own box + 9 shots against from inside the box (13 in total)
Fri 18 Sep away vs Brentford · Box pressure + 8/12 shots from inside the box
Mon 24 Aug away vs Fulham · Finishing − 3 goals from 1.70 expected (+1.30)
Mon 24 Aug away vs Fulham · Threat by half − own threat 1.46 → 0.24 xG, opponents 0.44 → 0.92
Mon 24 Aug away vs Fulham · Goalkeeper + 4 saves
Mon 24 Aug away vs Fulham · Shooting accuracy − 6/18 shots on target (33 %)
Mon 24 Aug away vs Fulham · Defensive line − 0 offsides won
Mon 24 Aug away vs Fulham · Discipline + 3 cards, 7 fouls
Mon 24 Aug away vs Fulham · Duels + 53 % of duels won (55/103)
Mon 24 Aug away vs Fulham · Possession and duels − possession 39 %, duels 53 %
Mon 24 Aug away vs Fulham · Set pieces − 4 corners, 6 conceded
Mon 24 Aug away vs Fulham · Own box − 7 shots against from inside the box (14 in total)
Mon 24 Aug away vs Fulham · Box pressure + 13/18 shots from inside the box
Sat 12 Sep home vs Hull City · Finishing − 2 goals from 0.91 expected (+1.09)
Sat 12 Sep home vs Hull City · Threat by half + own threat 0.18 → 0.72 xG, opponents 0.44 → 0.94
Sat 12 Sep home vs Hull City · Goalkeeper − 3 saves
Sat 12 Sep home vs Hull City · Shooting accuracy − 7/12 shots on target (58 %)
Sat 12 Sep home vs Hull City · Discipline − 1 cards, 7 fouls
Sat 12 Sep home vs Hull City · Duels + 53 % of duels won (47/88)
Sat 12 Sep home vs Hull City · Possession and duels − possession 68 %, duels 53 %
Sat 12 Sep home vs Hull City · Set pieces − 10 corners, 4 conceded
Sat 12 Sep home vs Hull City · Own box + 9 shots against from inside the box (14 in total)
Sat 10 Oct home vs Bournemouth · Finishing − 5 goals from 1.16 expected (+3.84)
Sat 10 Oct home vs Bournemouth · Threat by half + own threat 0.50 → 0.66 xG, opponents 0.37 → 1.15
Sat 10 Oct home vs Bournemouth · Goalkeeper − 3 saves
Sat 10 Oct home vs Bournemouth · Shooting accuracy − 6/10 shots on target (60 %)
Sat 10 Oct home vs Bournemouth · Defensive line − 0 offsides won
Sat 10 Oct home vs Bournemouth · Discipline − 0 cards, 7 fouls
Sat 10 Oct home vs Bournemouth · Duels + 55 % of duels won (57/104)
Sat 10 Oct home vs Bournemouth · Possession and duels − possession 40 %, duels 55 %
Sat 10 Oct home vs Bournemouth · Own box − 6 shots against from inside the box (9 in total)
Hypothesis 1 · Discipline State · closed · 6 matches
The cost of indiscipline may rise.
Supports
+ Sun 6.9. away vs Arsenal: 4 cards, 16 fouls
+ Mon 24.8. away vs Fulham: 3 cards, 7 fouls
Challenges
− Sun 30.8. home vs Brighton: 1 cards, 6 fouls
− Fri 18.9. away vs Brentford: 0 cards, 7 fouls
− Sat 12.9. home vs Hull City: 1 cards, 7 fouls
− Sat 10.10. home vs Bournemouth: 0 cards, 7 fouls
Last season 2.5 cards and 11.2 fouls in the match
Next test Will cards add up to suspensions, or fouls to goals conceded?
Hypothesis 2 · Set pieces State · closed · 5 matches
Set pieces may keep coming to nothing.
Supports
+ Fri 18.9. away vs Brentford: 12 corners, 4 conceded
Challenges
− Sun 6.9. away vs Arsenal: 3 corners, 5 conceded
− Sun 30.8. home vs Brighton: 4 corners, 7 conceded
− Mon 24.8. away vs Fulham: 4 corners, 6 conceded
− Sat 12.9. home vs Hull City: 10 corners, 4 conceded
Last season 6.1 corners in the match, 4.3 against
Next test Will a corner or free kick produce a goal in the coming rounds?
Hypothesis 3 · Finishing State · closed · 6 matches
Goal output may keep falling short of the chances created.
Supports
+ Fri 18.9. away vs Brentford: 0 goals from 0.83 expected (-0.83)
Challenges
− Sun 6.9. away vs Arsenal: 1 goals from 0.39 expected (+0.61)
− Sun 30.8. home vs Brighton: 4 goals from 2.97 expected (+1.03)
− Mon 24.8. away vs Fulham: 3 goals from 1.70 expected (+1.30)
− Sat 12.9. home vs Hull City: 2 goals from 0.91 expected (+1.09)
− Sat 10.10. home vs Bournemouth: 5 goals from 1.16 expected (+3.84)
Last season 1.5 goals and 13.4 shots in the match, 11 % of shots scored
Next test Will the goal count move closer to the expected number in the next match?
Hypothesis 4 · Shooting accuracy State · closed · 6 matches
Shots don't appear to hit the target often enough.
Supports
+ Fri 18.9. away vs Brentford: 2/12 shots on target (17 %)
Challenges
− Sun 6.9. away vs Arsenal: 5/13 shots on target (38 %)
− Sun 30.8. home vs Brighton: 6/17 shots on target (35 %)
− Mon 24.8. away vs Fulham: 6/18 shots on target (33 %)
− Sat 12.9. home vs Hull City: 7/12 shots on target (58 %)
− Sat 10.10. home vs Bournemouth: 6/10 shots on target (60 %)
Last season 32 % of shots on target (164 / 511)
Next test Will the share of shots on target rise above a third?
Hypothesis 5 · Possession and duels State · closed · 6 matches
Possession may not be matched by duel wins.
Supports
No longer backed by the evidence.
Challenges
− Sun 6.9. away vs Arsenal: possession 45 %, duels 51 %
− Sun 30.8. home vs Brighton: possession 26 %, duels 54 %
− Fri 18.9. away vs Brentford: possession 60 %, duels 57 %
− Mon 24.8. away vs Fulham: possession 39 %, duels 53 %
− Sat 12.9. home vs Hull City: possession 68 %, duels 53 %
− Sat 10.10. home vs Bournemouth: possession 40 %, duels 55 %
Next test Will the duel balance flip when the opponent presses higher?
Line: line mid-table: 6 offsides drawn; box open: 70 % of shots conceded came from inside the box
Progression: progression mid-table: 31.4 passes per shot, possession 46 %
Set pieces: in attack 34 corners (league 4./20), no headed goals yet; in defence 33 corners against (2./20), no headed goals conceded
Second half: output weighted to the opening half (9+6 goals); own end leaks late (concessions 5+8); own threat falls in the second half (4.61 → 3.34 xG); opponents' threat grows (3.87 → 6.65 xG); first substitution on average at minute 64
When leading: the lead broke: 3 leads at half-time, the result did not hold (opponent xG 3.87 → 6.65)
The duels carry: 54 % of duels won (300/555), league 3./20
We track whether the duel wins hold as opponents change their approach.
Goalkeeper level on show: 25 saves (league 1./20) against 1.75 xG
We track whether the save level holds as shot quality changes: one match cannot separate skill from luck.
The second half fades: Threat fell in the second half (xG 2nd – 1st half -1.27)
We track whether the second-half fade turns around: do the decisive moments keep coming against less and less threat.
| Finishing goals vs xG | Chance creation assists vs xA | |
| Defenders | +2.7 | +1.0 |
| Midfield | −4.8 | −8.5 |
| Forwards | −4.5 | +6.7 |
TEAM IDENTITY
Home ground
Stamford Bridge opened on 28.4.1877 as an athletics ground; Chelsea were founded in 1905 to play there.
source: Wikipedia, Stamford BridgeTEAM MEMORY
Chelsea voittaa Eurooppa-liigan finaalin Amsterdamissa 2-1 Benficasta.
source: UEFA (uefa.com), Benfica 1-2 Chelsea, Eurooppa-liigan finaali 15.5.2013