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THE SQUAD
● season 2026-27 · latest formation · round 6
NEXT CHECK
LAST MATCH
Aston Villa – Brentford 2–2 (half-time 1–1) · goals: Ajer, Yarmoliuk
PREVIEW IN HINDSIGHT
No preview was published before this match. The preview below was built after the match from pre-match data only (the same read would have been produced beforehand) and graded against what happened.
Watch first: Pressure vs the defence. Brentford shoot this season 16.2 times per match (4th in the league, last season 10.7 and 16th in the league), Aston Villa: 16.2 shots conceded (league 15.). The match's shot count tells which number held.
What happened: the defence won: 14 shots (baseline 16.2, opponent concedes 16.2).
Then watch: Finishing vs the goalkeeper. Brentford score this season from 12.3 percent of their shots (5th in the league, last season 13.6 and 1st in the league), Aston Villa: save percentage on shots on target 65.4 (league 12.). In the match this shows in whether the goal count matches the threat created.
What happened: the finishing held: 2 goals from 1.31 expected (+0.69), 14 % of shots scored.
Third: Set pieces. Brentford win this season 4.4 corners per match (10th in the league, last season 4.8 and 13th in the league), Aston Villa: 4.8 corners conceded (league 9.). The expectation is at least 4 corners.
What happened: fell short of expectation: 2 corners (expected 4), 2 goals.
Fourth: Box pressure delivers. 60 shots from inside the box (league 3./20) and 10 goals, 81 shots in total (4./20)
What happened: Box pressure delivers repeated in this match: 12 shots from the box, 2 goals, 20 shots against.
One more: The second half sharpens. Threat rose in the second half (xG 2nd – 1st half +3.67)
What happened: The second half sharpens repeated in this match: threat 0.56 → 0.75 xG.
Finally: Player pick. Kevin Schade is the team's best in the match ratings this season: 27.6 points on average in 5 matches, top three 2 times.
What happened: Player pick did not hold: Kevin Schade ranked 12/15 in his team's match ratings
And: Style of play. Low block: 36 % of shots conceded from outside the box, forces opponents to shoot from range.
What happened: The playing-style claim did not hold: 25 % of shots conceded from outside the box (league level 32 %).
From this match: 3/7 held
Result read from round data ●. Hits and misses are logged in the track record.
MANAGER'S CORNER · FANTASY
TEAM BASELINE
The threat tilts to the second half: own threat 0.55 → 1.01 xG, opponents' 0.04 → 1.42 (Sun 30.8. away vs Leeds).
Last quarter hour · Brentford dropped 4 points after the 75th minute.
The threat appears weighted towards the second half.
+ Sun 30.8. away vs Leeds: own threat 0.55 → 1.01 xG, opponents 0.04 → 1.42
− Sat 12.9. away vs Bournemouth: own threat 0.33 → 0.17 xG, opponents 0.67 → 1.08
Last season 56 % of goals came in the second half (31 / 55)
Next test Will the threat still grow from first half to second in a competitive match?
Hypothesis 2 · Box pressure State · strengthening · 4 matches
The team appears to get into the box repeatedly.
Supports
+ Sun 30.8. away vs Leeds: 18/22 shots from inside the box
+ Fri 18.9. home vs Chelsea: 9/13 shots from inside the box
+ Sat 22.8. home vs Tottenham: 20/26 shots from inside the box
+ Sat 10.10. away vs Aston Villa: 12/14 shots from inside the box
Challenges
No counter-evidence yet.
Last season 10.7 shots in the match (no box split from last season, so the comparison is shot count)
Next test Will shots in the box stay above eight when the opponent defends deeper?
Hypothesis 3 · Own box State · strengthening · 6 matches
Opponents appear to get into the box too easily.
Supports
+ Fri 18.9. home vs Chelsea: 8 shots against from inside the box (12 in total)
+ Sat 5.9. home vs Sunderland: 10 shots against from inside the box (14 in total)
+ Sat 12.9. away vs Bournemouth: 10 shots against from inside the box (20 in total)
+ Sat 10.10. away vs Aston Villa: 15 shots against from inside the box (20 in total)
Challenges
− Sun 30.8. away vs Leeds: 6 shots against from inside the box (13 in total)
− Sat 22.8. home vs Tottenham: 4 shots against from inside the box (9 in total)
Last season 13.3 shots against in the match (no box split)
Next test Will shots conceded inside the box fall below eight?
Hypothesis 4 · Discipline State · strengthening · 6 matches
The cost of indiscipline may rise.
Supports
+ Sun 30.8. away vs Leeds: 4 cards, 13 fouls
+ Fri 18.9. home vs Chelsea: 2 cards, 10 fouls
+ Sat 5.9. home vs Sunderland: 3 cards, 19 fouls
+ Sat 10.10. away vs Aston Villa: 5 cards, 24 fouls
Challenges
− Sat 22.8. home vs Tottenham: 1 cards, 17 fouls
− Sat 12.9. away vs Bournemouth: 1 cards, 13 fouls
Last season 1.8 cards and 10.3 fouls in the match
Next test Will cards add up to suspensions, or fouls to goals conceded?
Hypothesis 5 · Shooting accuracy State · strengthening · 6 matches
Shots don't appear to hit the target often enough.
Supports
+ Sun 30.8. away vs Leeds: 5/22 shots on target (23 %)
+ Sat 5.9. home vs Sunderland: 2/12 shots on target (17 %)
+ Sat 12.9. away vs Bournemouth: 2/8 shots on target (25 %)
+ Sat 10.10. away vs Aston Villa: 4/14 shots on target (29 %)
Challenges
− Fri 18.9. home vs Chelsea: 6/13 shots on target (46 %)
− Sat 22.8. home vs Tottenham: 8/26 shots on target (31 %)
Last season 36 % of shots on target (147 / 405)
Next test Will the share of shots on target rise above a third?
Hypothesis 6 · Goalkeeper State · mixed · 6 matches
The goalkeeper's level may prove the difference for this team.
Supports
+ Sat 22.8. home vs Tottenham: 4 saves
+ Sat 12.9. away vs Bournemouth: 8 saves
+ Sat 10.10. away vs Aston Villa: 5 saves
Challenges
− Sun 30.8. away vs Leeds: 1 saves
− Fri 18.9. home vs Chelsea: 2 saves
− Sat 5.9. home vs Sunderland: 2 saves
Last season 68 % of shots on target kept out (52 conceded / 162)
Next test Will the shot-stopping level hold when shot quality changes?
Hypothesis 7 · Finishing State · mixed · 4 matches
Goal output may keep falling short of the chances created.
Supports
+ Sun 30.8. away vs Leeds: 1 goals from 1.56 expected (-0.56)
+ Sat 22.8. home vs Tottenham: 3 goals from 3.96 expected (-0.96)
Challenges
− Sat 12.9. away vs Bournemouth: 2 goals from 0.50 expected (+1.50)
− Sat 10.10. away vs Aston Villa: 2 goals from 1.31 expected (+0.69)
Last season 1.4 goals and 10.7 shots in the match, 14 % of shots scored
Next test Will the goal count move closer to the expected number in the next match?
Hypothesis 8 · Defensive line State · new · 2 matches
The defence appears to hold a high line.
Supports
+ Sat 5.9. home vs Sunderland: 3 offsides won
+ Sat 12.9. away vs Bournemouth: 3 offsides won
Challenges
No counter-evidence yet.
Next test Will the offside trap keep working even against a more direct opponent?
Sun 30 Aug away vs Leeds · Finishing + 1 goals from 1.56 expected (-0.56)
Sun 30 Aug away vs Leeds · Threat by half + own threat 0.55 → 1.01 xG, opponents 0.04 → 1.42
Sun 30 Aug away vs Leeds · Goalkeeper − 1 saves
Sun 30 Aug away vs Leeds · Shooting accuracy + 5/22 shots on target (23 %)
Sun 30 Aug away vs Leeds · Discipline + 4 cards, 13 fouls
Sun 30 Aug away vs Leeds · Duels − 44 % of duels won (51/115)
Sun 30 Aug away vs Leeds · Possession and duels + possession 53 %, duels 44 %
Sun 30 Aug away vs Leeds · Set pieces − 6 corners, 5 conceded
Sun 30 Aug away vs Leeds · Own box − 6 shots against from inside the box (13 in total)
Sun 30 Aug away vs Leeds · Box pressure + 18/22 shots from inside the box
Fri 18 Sep home vs Chelsea · Threat by half + own threat 0.39 → 2.26 xG, opponents 0.39 → 0.44
Fri 18 Sep home vs Chelsea · Goalkeeper − 2 saves
Fri 18 Sep home vs Chelsea · Shooting accuracy − 6/13 shots on target (46 %)
Fri 18 Sep home vs Chelsea · Discipline + 2 cards, 10 fouls
Fri 18 Sep home vs Chelsea · Duels − 43 % of duels won (41/96)
Fri 18 Sep home vs Chelsea · Possession and duels − possession 40 %, duels 43 %
Fri 18 Sep home vs Chelsea · Set pieces − 4 corners, 12 conceded
Fri 18 Sep home vs Chelsea · Own box + 8 shots against from inside the box (12 in total)
Fri 18 Sep home vs Chelsea · Box pressure + 9/13 shots from inside the box
Sat 5 Sep home vs Sunderland · Threat by half + own threat 0.35 → 0.85 xG, opponents 0.35 → 1.36
Sat 5 Sep home vs Sunderland · Goalkeeper − 2 saves
Sat 5 Sep home vs Sunderland · Shooting accuracy + 2/12 shots on target (17 %)
Sat 5 Sep home vs Sunderland · Defensive line + 3 offsides won
Sat 5 Sep home vs Sunderland · Discipline + 3 cards, 19 fouls
Sat 5 Sep home vs Sunderland · Duels − 41 % of duels won (50/123)
Sat 5 Sep home vs Sunderland · Possession and duels − possession 49 %, duels 41 %
Sat 5 Sep home vs Sunderland · Set pieces − 4 corners, 3 conceded
Sat 5 Sep home vs Sunderland · Own box + 10 shots against from inside the box (14 in total)
Sat 22 Aug home vs Tottenham · Finishing + 3 goals from 3.96 expected (-0.96)
Sat 22 Aug home vs Tottenham · Threat by half + own threat 1.48 → 2.48 xG, opponents 0.09 → 0.38
Sat 22 Aug home vs Tottenham · Goalkeeper + 4 saves
Sat 22 Aug home vs Tottenham · Shooting accuracy − 8/26 shots on target (31 %)
Sat 22 Aug home vs Tottenham · Discipline − 1 cards, 17 fouls
Sat 22 Aug home vs Tottenham · Duels + 52 % of duels won (61/118)
Sat 22 Aug home vs Tottenham · Possession and duels − possession 41 %, duels 52 %
Sat 22 Aug home vs Tottenham · Set pieces − 7 corners, 3 conceded
Sat 22 Aug home vs Tottenham · Own box − 4 shots against from inside the box (9 in total)
Sat 22 Aug home vs Tottenham · Box pressure + 20/26 shots from inside the box
Sat 12 Sep away vs Bournemouth · Finishing − 2 goals from 0.50 expected (+1.50)
Sat 12 Sep away vs Bournemouth · Threat by half − own threat 0.33 → 0.17 xG, opponents 0.67 → 1.08
Sat 12 Sep away vs Bournemouth · Goalkeeper + 8 saves
Sat 12 Sep away vs Bournemouth · Shooting accuracy + 2/8 shots on target (25 %)
Sat 12 Sep away vs Bournemouth · Defensive line + 3 offsides won
Sat 12 Sep away vs Bournemouth · Discipline − 1 cards, 13 fouls
Sat 12 Sep away vs Bournemouth · Duels + 52 % of duels won (64/122)
Sat 12 Sep away vs Bournemouth · Possession and duels − possession 43 %, duels 52 %
Sat 12 Sep away vs Bournemouth · Own box + 10 shots against from inside the box (20 in total)
Sat 10 Oct away vs Aston Villa · Finishing − 2 goals from 1.31 expected (+0.69)
Sat 10 Oct away vs Aston Villa · Threat by half + own threat 0.56 → 0.75 xG, opponents 1.28 → 0.56
Sat 10 Oct away vs Aston Villa · Goalkeeper + 5 saves
Sat 10 Oct away vs Aston Villa · Shooting accuracy + 4/14 shots on target (29 %)
Sat 10 Oct away vs Aston Villa · Discipline + 5 cards, 24 fouls
Sat 10 Oct away vs Aston Villa · Duels − 46 % of duels won (51/111)
Sat 10 Oct away vs Aston Villa · Possession and duels − possession 48 %, duels 46 %
Sat 10 Oct away vs Aston Villa · Own box + 15 shots against from inside the box (20 in total)
Sat 10 Oct away vs Aston Villa · Box pressure + 12/14 shots from inside the box
Hypothesis 1 · Duels State · closed · 6 matches
Duels appear to carry this team's game.
Supports
+ Sat 22.8. home vs Tottenham: 52 % of duels won (61/118)
+ Sat 12.9. away vs Bournemouth: 52 % of duels won (64/122)
Challenges
− Sun 30.8. away vs Leeds: 44 % of duels won (51/115)
− Fri 18.9. home vs Chelsea: 43 % of duels won (41/96)
− Sat 5.9. home vs Sunderland: 41 % of duels won (50/123)
− Sat 10.10. away vs Aston Villa: 46 % of duels won (51/111)
Next test Will the duel-win rate stay above half even against a possession-dominant opponent?
Hypothesis 2 · Possession and duels State · closed · 6 matches
Possession may not be matched by duel wins.
Supports
+ Sun 30.8. away vs Leeds: possession 53 %, duels 44 %
Challenges
− Fri 18.9. home vs Chelsea: possession 40 %, duels 43 %
− Sat 5.9. home vs Sunderland: possession 49 %, duels 41 %
− Sat 22.8. home vs Tottenham: possession 41 %, duels 52 %
− Sat 12.9. away vs Bournemouth: possession 43 %, duels 52 %
− Sat 10.10. away vs Aston Villa: possession 48 %, duels 46 %
Next test Will the duel balance flip when the opponent presses higher?
Hypothesis 3 · Set pieces State · closed · 4 matches
Set pieces may keep coming to nothing.
Supports
No longer backed by the evidence.
Challenges
− Sun 30.8. away vs Leeds: 6 corners, 5 conceded
− Fri 18.9. home vs Chelsea: 4 corners, 12 conceded
− Sat 5.9. home vs Sunderland: 4 corners, 3 conceded
− Sat 22.8. home vs Tottenham: 7 corners, 3 conceded
Last season 4.8 corners in the match, 5.4 against
Next test Will a corner or free kick produce a goal in the coming rounds?
Line: line mid-level: 13 offsides drawn
Progression: progresses directly: 23.4 passes per shot (league's most direct 2./20), possession 46 %
Set pieces: in attack 24 corners (league 16./20), no headed goals yet; in defence 27 corners against (13./20), no headed goals conceded
Second half: output weighted to the second half (5+8 goals); own end leaks late (concessions 2+4); own threat grows in the second half (3.66 → 7.52 xG); opponents' threat grows (2.82 → 5.24 xG); first substitution on average at minute 53 (forced reaction)
When leading: the lead broke: 2 leads at half-time, the result did not hold (opponent xG 2.82 → 5.24)
Goalkeeper level on show: 22 saves (league 3./20) against 1.34 xG
We track whether the save level holds as shot quality changes: one match cannot separate skill from luck.
Box pressure delivers: 72 shots from inside the box (league 1./20) and 12 goals, 95 shots in total (5./20)
We track whether box pressure holds when opponents defend deeper: volume without goals is recorded as inefficiency.
The second half sharpens: Threat rose in the second half (xG 2nd – 1st half +3.86)
We track whether the second-half sharpening repeats: is it structure or the opponent.
| Finishing goals vs xG | Chance creation assists vs xA | |
| Defenders | −4.0 | +2.3 |
| Midfield | −2.3 | +0.6 |
| Forwards | +1.8 | −3.6 |
TEAM IDENTITY
Home ground
Gtech Community Stadium opened on 1.9.2020 and replaced Griffin Park.
source: StadiumDB, Gtech Community StadiumTEAM MEMORY
Brentford reach the Premier League with a 2-0 play-off final win over Swansea City. Their previous top-flight season was 1946-47.
source: Brentford FC (brentfordfc.com), 2021 Championship play-off final