MY CLUB
”Prepared”, valmis
THE SQUAD
● season 2026-27 · latest formation · round 6
NEXT CHECK
LAST MATCH
Aston Villa – Brentford 2–2 (half-time 1–1) · goals: McGinn, N.Jackson
PREVIEW IN HINDSIGHT
No preview was published before this match. The preview below was built after the match from pre-match data only (the same read would have been produced beforehand) and graded against what happened.
Watch first: Pressure vs the defence. Aston Villa shoot this season 9.6 times per match (20th in the league, last season 12.7 and 9th in the league), Brentford: 13.4 shots conceded (league 9.). The match's shot count tells which number held.
What happened: the pressure held: 20 shots (baseline 9.6, opponent concedes 13.4).
Then watch: Finishing vs the goalkeeper. Aston Villa score this season from 8.3 percent of their shots (14th in the league, last season 11.6 and 4th in the league), Brentford: save percentage on shots on target 82.6 (league 3.). In the match this shows in whether the goal count matches the threat created.
What happened: the finishing held: 2 goals from 1.84 expected (+0.16), 10 % of shots scored.
Third: Rhythm of the two halves. Last season Aston Villa scored 62 percent of their goals in the second half, Brentford 56 percent. If the gap holds, the threat grows late towards Aston Villa.
What happened: the second half was flatter: threat 1.28 → 0.56 xG, shots 10 → 10.
Fourth: The whole system at the bottom end. Possession 46 % (league 13./20), own output 0.91 xG and 1.83 xG given to opponents (1./20 most): 3 metrics at the bottom end at once
What happened: The whole system at the bottom end turned in this match: possession 52 %, 2 goals.
One more: Shots are not finding the target. 12/48 shots on target, i.e. 25 % (league 19./20)
What happened: Shots are not finding the target turned in this match: 7/20 on target (35 %).
Finally: Player pick. Zion Suzuki is the team's best in the match ratings this season: 20.0 points on average in 4 matches, top three 1 times.
What happened: Player pick did not hold: Zion Suzuki ranked 7/15 in his team's match ratings
And: Style of play. High defensive line: opponents offside 2.9 times/match (league 2.).
What happened: Style claim did not hold: 1 offsides drawn (league level 1.5).
From this match: 2/7 held
Result read from round data ●. Hits and misses are logged in the track record.
MANAGER'S CORNER · FANTASY
TEAM BASELINE
The cost of indiscipline has grown: 4 cards, 9 fouls (Sun 23.8. away vs Brighton).
The cost of indiscipline may rise.
+ Sun 23.8. away vs Brighton: 4 cards, 9 fouls
− Sat 5.9. away vs Hull City: 0 cards, 5 fouls
Last season 1.6 cards and 10.0 fouls in the match
Next test Will cards add up to suspensions, or fouls to goals conceded?
Hypothesis 2 · Defensive line State · strengthening · 4 matches
The defence appears to hold a high line.
Supports
+ Sun 23.8. away vs Brighton: 6 offsides won
+ Mon 31.8. home vs Arsenal: 8 offsides won
+ Sat 19.9. away vs Tottenham: 5 offsides won
+ Sat 12.9. home vs Nottingham Forest: 4 offsides won
Challenges
No counter-evidence yet.
Next test Will the offside trap keep working even against a more direct opponent?
Hypothesis 3 · Own box State · strengthening · 6 matches
Opponents appear to get into the box too easily.
Supports
+ Sun 23.8. away vs Brighton: 15 shots against from inside the box (21 in total)
+ Sat 19.9. away vs Tottenham: 12 shots against from inside the box (20 in total)
+ Sat 12.9. home vs Nottingham Forest: 14 shots against from inside the box (22 in total)
+ Sat 10.10. home vs Brentford: 12 shots against from inside the box (14 in total)
Challenges
− Mon 31.8. home vs Arsenal: 5 shots against from inside the box (7 in total)
− Sat 5.9. away vs Hull City: 4 shots against from inside the box (11 in total)
Last season 12.9 shots against in the match (no box split)
Next test Will shots conceded inside the box fall below eight?
Hypothesis 4 · Box pressure State · strengthening · 5 matches
The team appears to get into the box repeatedly.
Supports
+ Sat 5.9. away vs Hull City: 10/13 shots from inside the box
+ Sat 19.9. away vs Tottenham: 9/15 shots from inside the box
+ Sat 10.10. home vs Brentford: 15/20 shots from inside the box
Challenges
− Sun 23.8. away vs Brighton: 2/6 shots from inside the box
− Mon 31.8. home vs Arsenal: 3/7 shots from inside the box
Last season 12.7 shots in the match (no box split from last season, so the comparison is shot count)
Next test Will shots in the box stay above eight when the opponent defends deeper?
Hypothesis 5 · Shooting accuracy State · mixed · 6 matches
Shots don't appear to hit the target often enough.
Supports
+ Sun 23.8. away vs Brighton: 0/6 shots on target (0 %)
+ Mon 31.8. home vs Arsenal: 0/7 shots on target (0 %)
+ Sat 5.9. away vs Hull City: 1/13 shots on target (8 %)
Challenges
− Sat 19.9. away vs Tottenham: 6/15 shots on target (40 %)
− Sat 12.9. home vs Nottingham Forest: 5/7 shots on target (71 %)
− Sat 10.10. home vs Brentford: 7/20 shots on target (35 %)
Last season 35 % of shots on target (170 / 483)
Next test Will the share of shots on target rise above a third?
Hypothesis 6 · Goalkeeper State · mixed · 6 matches
The goalkeeper's level may prove the difference for this team.
Supports
+ Sat 5.9. away vs Hull City: 4 saves
+ Sat 19.9. away vs Tottenham: 5 saves
+ Sat 12.9. home vs Nottingham Forest: 5 saves
Challenges
− Sun 23.8. away vs Brighton: 3 saves
− Mon 31.8. home vs Arsenal: 1 saves
− Sat 10.10. home vs Brentford: 3 saves
Last season 71 % of shots on target kept out (49 conceded / 168)
Next test Will the shot-stopping level hold when shot quality changes?
Hypothesis 7 · Finishing State · mixed · 2 matches
Goal output may keep falling short of the chances created.
Supports
+ Sat 5.9. away vs Hull City: 0 goals from 1.93 expected (-1.93)
Challenges
− Sat 19.9. away vs Tottenham: 3 goals from 1.16 expected (+1.84)
Last season 1.5 goals and 12.7 shots in the match, 12 % of shots scored
Next test Will the goal count move closer to the expected number in the next match?
Hypothesis 8 · Set pieces Status · fading · 1 match
Set pieces may keep coming to nothing.
Supports
No longer backed by the evidence.
Challenges
− Sat 12.9. home vs Nottingham Forest: 6 corners, 1 conceded
Last season 5.2 corners in the match, 4.9 against
Next test Will a corner or free kick produce a goal in the coming rounds?
Sun 23 Aug away vs Brighton · Threat by half − own threat 0.18 → 0.13 xG, opponents 2.96 → 0.71
Sun 23 Aug away vs Brighton · Goalkeeper − 3 saves
Sun 23 Aug away vs Brighton · Shooting accuracy + 0/6 shots on target (0 %)
Sun 23 Aug away vs Brighton · Defensive line + 6 offsides won
Sun 23 Aug away vs Brighton · Discipline + 4 cards, 9 fouls
Sun 23 Aug away vs Brighton · Duels − 48 % of duels won (46/96)
Sun 23 Aug away vs Brighton · Possession and duels − possession 27 %, duels 48 %
Sun 23 Aug away vs Brighton · Own box + 15 shots against from inside the box (21 in total)
Sun 23 Aug away vs Brighton · Box pressure − 2/6 shots from inside the box
Mon 31 Aug home vs Arsenal · Threat by half + own threat 0.09 → 0.23 xG, opponents 0.36 → 0.69
Mon 31 Aug home vs Arsenal · Goalkeeper − 1 saves
Mon 31 Aug home vs Arsenal · Shooting accuracy + 0/7 shots on target (0 %)
Mon 31 Aug home vs Arsenal · Defensive line + 8 offsides won
Mon 31 Aug home vs Arsenal · Discipline + 3 cards, 17 fouls
Mon 31 Aug home vs Arsenal · Duels − 43 % of duels won (39/90)
Mon 31 Aug home vs Arsenal · Possession and duels − possession 39 %, duels 43 %
Mon 31 Aug home vs Arsenal · Own box − 5 shots against from inside the box (7 in total)
Mon 31 Aug home vs Arsenal · Box pressure − 3/7 shots from inside the box
Sat 5 Sep away vs Hull City · Finishing + 0 goals from 1.93 expected (-1.93)
Sat 5 Sep away vs Hull City · Threat by half + own threat 0.57 → 1.36 xG, opponents 0.08 → 0.49
Sat 5 Sep away vs Hull City · Goalkeeper + 4 saves
Sat 5 Sep away vs Hull City · Shooting accuracy + 1/13 shots on target (8 %)
Sat 5 Sep away vs Hull City · Discipline − 0 cards, 5 fouls
Sat 5 Sep away vs Hull City · Duels − 45 % of duels won (38/84)
Sat 5 Sep away vs Hull City · Possession and duels + possession 74 %, duels 45 %
Sat 5 Sep away vs Hull City · Own box − 4 shots against from inside the box (11 in total)
Sat 5 Sep away vs Hull City · Box pressure + 10/13 shots from inside the box
Sat 19 Sep away vs Tottenham · Finishing − 3 goals from 1.16 expected (+1.84)
Sat 19 Sep away vs Tottenham · Threat by half − own threat 0.82 → 0.35 xG, opponents 0.64 → 0.92
Sat 19 Sep away vs Tottenham · Goalkeeper + 5 saves
Sat 19 Sep away vs Tottenham · Shooting accuracy − 6/15 shots on target (40 %)
Sat 19 Sep away vs Tottenham · Defensive line + 5 offsides won
Sat 19 Sep away vs Tottenham · Discipline + 2 cards, 13 fouls
Sat 19 Sep away vs Tottenham · Duels − 41 % of duels won (46/111)
Sat 19 Sep away vs Tottenham · Possession and duels − possession 36 %, duels 41 %
Sat 19 Sep away vs Tottenham · Own box + 12 shots against from inside the box (20 in total)
Sat 19 Sep away vs Tottenham · Box pressure + 9/15 shots from inside the box
Sat 12 Sep home vs Nottingham Forest · Threat by half − own threat 0.65 → 0.17 xG, opponents 0.39 → 1.89
Sat 12 Sep home vs Nottingham Forest · Goalkeeper + 5 saves
Sat 12 Sep home vs Nottingham Forest · Shooting accuracy − 5/7 shots on target (71 %)
Sat 12 Sep home vs Nottingham Forest · Defensive line + 4 offsides won
Sat 12 Sep home vs Nottingham Forest · Discipline + 2 cards, 11 fouls
Sat 12 Sep home vs Nottingham Forest · Duels − 48 % of duels won (47/97)
Sat 12 Sep home vs Nottingham Forest · Possession and duels + possession 54 %, duels 48 %
Sat 12 Sep home vs Nottingham Forest · Set pieces − 6 corners, 1 conceded
Sat 12 Sep home vs Nottingham Forest · Own box + 14 shots against from inside the box (22 in total)
Sat 10 Oct home vs Brentford · Threat by half − own threat 1.28 → 0.56 xG, opponents 0.56 → 0.75
Sat 10 Oct home vs Brentford · Goalkeeper − 3 saves
Sat 10 Oct home vs Brentford · Shooting accuracy − 7/20 shots on target (35 %)
Sat 10 Oct home vs Brentford · Discipline + 2 cards, 7 fouls
Sat 10 Oct home vs Brentford · Duels + 54 % of duels won (60/111)
Sat 10 Oct home vs Brentford · Possession and duels − possession 52 %, duels 54 %
Sat 10 Oct home vs Brentford · Own box + 12 shots against from inside the box (14 in total)
Sat 10 Oct home vs Brentford · Box pressure + 15/20 shots from inside the box
Hypothesis 1 · Possession and duels State · closed · 6 matches
Possession may not be matched by duel wins.
Supports
+ Sat 5.9. away vs Hull City: possession 74 %, duels 45 %
+ Sat 12.9. home vs Nottingham Forest: possession 54 %, duels 48 %
Challenges
− Sun 23.8. away vs Brighton: possession 27 %, duels 48 %
− Mon 31.8. home vs Arsenal: possession 39 %, duels 43 %
− Sat 19.9. away vs Tottenham: possession 36 %, duels 41 %
− Sat 10.10. home vs Brentford: possession 52 %, duels 54 %
Next test Will the duel balance flip when the opponent presses higher?
Hypothesis 2 · Threat by half State · closed · 6 matches
The threat appears weighted towards the second half.
Supports
+ Mon 31.8. home vs Arsenal: own threat 0.09 → 0.23 xG, opponents 0.36 → 0.69
+ Sat 5.9. away vs Hull City: own threat 0.57 → 1.36 xG, opponents 0.08 → 0.49
Challenges
− Sun 23.8. away vs Brighton: own threat 0.18 → 0.13 xG, opponents 2.96 → 0.71
− Sat 19.9. away vs Tottenham: own threat 0.82 → 0.35 xG, opponents 0.64 → 0.92
− Sat 12.9. home vs Nottingham Forest: own threat 0.65 → 0.17 xG, opponents 0.39 → 1.89
− Sat 10.10. home vs Brentford: own threat 1.28 → 0.56 xG, opponents 0.56 → 0.75
Last season 62 % of goals came in the second half (35 / 56)
Next test Will the threat still grow from first half to second in a competitive match?
Hypothesis 3 · Duels State · closed · 6 matches
Duels appear to carry this team's game.
Supports
+ Sat 10.10. home vs Brentford: 54 % of duels won (60/111)
Challenges
− Sun 23.8. away vs Brighton: 48 % of duels won (46/96)
− Mon 31.8. home vs Arsenal: 43 % of duels won (39/90)
− Sat 5.9. away vs Hull City: 45 % of duels won (38/84)
− Sat 19.9. away vs Tottenham: 41 % of duels won (46/111)
− Sat 12.9. home vs Nottingham Forest: 48 % of duels won (47/97)
Next test Will the duel-win rate stay above half even against a possession-dominant opponent?
Line: high line: opponents caught offside 26 times (league 1./20)
Progression: progression mid-table: 35.7 passes per shot, possession 47 %
Set pieces: in attack 17 corners (league 20./20), no headed goals yet; in defence 26 corners against (16./20), no headed goals conceded
Second half: output weighted to the second half (1+5 goals); own end leaks late (concessions 1+6); own threat falls in the second half (3.59 → 2.80 xG); opponents' threat holds (4.99 → 5.45 xG); first substitution on average at minute 56 (covering 5/6 matches, 1 was settled by half-time)
The second half fades: Threat fell in the second half (xG 2nd – 1st half -0.79)
We track whether the second-half fade turns around: do the decisive moments keep coming against less and less threat.
| Finishing goals vs xG | Chance creation assists vs xA | |
| Defenders | −2.0 | +3.0 |
| Midfield | +8.3 | +0.8 |
| Forwards | +1.0 | −0.4 |
TEAM IDENTITY
Home ground
Villa Park has hosted 55 FA Cup semi-finals, more than any other ground.
source: Wikipedia, Villa ParkTEAM MEMORY
Aston Villa reach the Premier League after winning the Championship play-off final at Wembley 2-1 against Derby County.
source: Aston Villa FC (avfc.co.uk), Play-Off Final match report 27.5.2019