”You can never escape the history of a club like this. At some clubs, success is accidental sometimes, but at Arsenal, it is compulsory.”
Arsène Wenger, huhtikuu 1998
THE SQUAD
● season 2026-27 · latest formation · round 6
NEXT CHECK
LAST MATCH
Arsenal – Leeds 2–1 (half-time 0–0) · goals: Bruno G., Calafiori
PREVIEW IN HINDSIGHT
No preview was published before this match. The preview below was built after the match from pre-match data only (the same read would have been produced beforehand) and graded against what happened.
Watch first: Pressure vs the defence. Arsenal shoot this season 13.0 times per match (13th in the league, last season 14.5 and 4th in the league), Leeds: 14.6 shots conceded (league 13.). The match's shot count tells which number held.
What happened: the pressure held: 13 shots (baseline 13.0, opponent concedes 14.6).
Then watch: Finishing vs the goalkeeper. Arsenal score this season from 12.3 percent of their shots (6th in the league, last season 12.9 and 3rd in the league), Leeds: save percentage on shots on target 85.7 (league 1.). In the match this shows in whether the goal count matches the threat created.
What happened: goalkeeping and finishing beat the team: 2 goals from 2.66 expected (-0.66), 15 % of shots scored.
Third: Rhythm of the two halves. Last season Arsenal scored 58 percent of their goals in the second half, Leeds 51 percent. If the gap holds, the threat grows late towards Arsenal.
What happened: the second half was sharper: threat 0.45 → 2.21 xG, shots 4 → 9.
Fourth: The duels carry. 53 % of duels won (234/438), league 3./20
What happened: Duels carry repeated in this match: 55 % of duels won.
One more: Player pick. Bukayo Saka is the team's best in the match ratings this season: 27.4 points on average in 5 matches, top three 3 times.
What happened: Player pick did not hold: Bukayo Saka ranked 11/16 in his team's match ratings
Finally: Style of play. Deep line: the offside trap springs rarely (0.7/match).
What happened: Style claim did not hold: 4 offsides drawn (league level 1.5).
From this match: 3/6 held
Result read from round data ●. Hits and misses are logged in the track record.
MANAGER'S CORNER · FANTASY
▷ Sources: football.london
TEAM BASELINE
The team reaches the box: 13/16 shots from inside the box (Sun 6.9. home vs Chelsea).
The team appears to get into the box repeatedly.
+ Sun 6.9. home vs Chelsea: 13/16 shots from inside the box
Last season 14.5 shots in the match (no box split from last season, so the comparison is shot count)
Next test Will shots in the box stay above eight when the opponent defends deeper?
Hypothesis 2 · Threat by half State · strengthening · 6 matches
The threat appears weighted towards the second half.
Supports
+ Mon 31.8. away vs Aston Villa: own threat 0.36 → 0.69 xG, opponents 0.09 → 0.23
+ Sat 19.9. away vs Brighton: own threat 0.39 → 1.24 xG, opponents 0.36 → 0.95
+ Sat 12.9. away vs Sunderland: own threat 0.77 → 1.11 xG, opponents 0.23 → 1.57
+ Sat 10.10. home vs Leeds: own threat 0.45 → 2.21 xG, opponents 0.44 → 0.30
Challenges
− Sun 6.9. home vs Chelsea: own threat 1.17 → 0.88 xG, opponents 0.15 → 0.24
− Fri 21.8. home vs Coventry: own threat 1.32 → 0.56 xG, opponents 0.04 → 0.16
Last season 58 % of goals came in the second half (41 / 71)
Next test Will the threat still grow from first half to second in a competitive match?
Hypothesis 3 · Duels State · strengthening · 6 matches
Duels appear to carry this team's game.
Supports
+ Fri 21.8. home vs Coventry: 52 % of duels won (37/71)
+ Mon 31.8. away vs Aston Villa: 57 % of duels won (51/90)
+ Sat 12.9. away vs Sunderland: 59 % of duels won (53/90)
+ Sat 10.10. home vs Leeds: 55 % of duels won (55/100)
Challenges
− Sun 6.9. home vs Chelsea: 49 % of duels won (42/85)
− Sat 19.9. away vs Brighton: 50 % of duels won (51/102)
Next test Will the duel-win rate stay above half even against a possession-dominant opponent?
Hypothesis 4 · Shooting accuracy State · mixed · 6 matches
Shots don't appear to hit the target often enough.
Supports
+ Fri 21.8. home vs Coventry: 6/20 shots on target (30 %)
+ Mon 31.8. away vs Aston Villa: 2/7 shots on target (29 %)
+ Sat 19.9. away vs Brighton: 2/11 shots on target (18 %)
Challenges
− Sun 6.9. home vs Chelsea: 9/16 shots on target (56 %)
− Sat 12.9. away vs Sunderland: 5/11 shots on target (45 %)
− Sat 10.10. home vs Leeds: 6/13 shots on target (46 %)
Last season 34 % of shots on target (186 / 552)
Next test Will the share of shots on target rise above a third?
Hypothesis 5 · Finishing State · mixed · 3 matches
Goal output may keep falling short of the chances created.
Supports
+ Sat 19.9. away vs Brighton: 0 goals from 1.63 expected (-1.63)
+ Sat 10.10. home vs Leeds: 2 goals from 2.66 expected (-0.66)
Challenges
− Fri 21.8. home vs Coventry: 3 goals from 1.88 expected (+1.12)
Last season 1.9 goals and 14.5 shots in the match, 13 % of shots scored
Next test Will the goal count move closer to the expected number in the next match?
Sun 6 Sep home vs Chelsea · Threat by half − own threat 1.17 → 0.88 xG, opponents 0.15 → 0.24
Sun 6 Sep home vs Chelsea · Goalkeeper + 4 saves
Sun 6 Sep home vs Chelsea · Shooting accuracy − 9/16 shots on target (56 %)
Sun 6 Sep home vs Chelsea · Defensive line − 0 offsides won
Sun 6 Sep home vs Chelsea · Discipline + 2 cards, 13 fouls
Sun 6 Sep home vs Chelsea · Duels − 49 % of duels won (42/85)
Sun 6 Sep home vs Chelsea · Possession and duels + possession 55 %, duels 49 %
Sun 6 Sep home vs Chelsea · Set pieces − 5 corners, 3 conceded
Sun 6 Sep home vs Chelsea · Own box − 5 shots against from inside the box (13 in total)
Sun 6 Sep home vs Chelsea · Box pressure + 13/16 shots from inside the box
Fri 21 Aug home vs Coventry · Finishing − 3 goals from 1.88 expected (+1.12)
Fri 21 Aug home vs Coventry · Threat by half − own threat 1.32 → 0.56 xG, opponents 0.04 → 0.16
Fri 21 Aug home vs Coventry · Goalkeeper − 1 saves
Fri 21 Aug home vs Coventry · Shooting accuracy + 6/20 shots on target (30 %)
Fri 21 Aug home vs Coventry · Defensive line − 0 offsides won
Fri 21 Aug home vs Coventry · Discipline − 1 cards, 10 fouls
Fri 21 Aug home vs Coventry · Duels + 52 % of duels won (37/71)
Fri 21 Aug home vs Coventry · Possession and duels − possession 64 %, duels 52 %
Fri 21 Aug home vs Coventry · Set pieces − 8 corners, 2 conceded
Fri 21 Aug home vs Coventry · Own box − 1 shots against from inside the box (4 in total)
Fri 21 Aug home vs Coventry · Box pressure + 10/20 shots from inside the box
Mon 31 Aug away vs Aston Villa · Threat by half + own threat 0.36 → 0.69 xG, opponents 0.09 → 0.23
Mon 31 Aug away vs Aston Villa · Goalkeeper − 0 saves
Mon 31 Aug away vs Aston Villa · Shooting accuracy + 2/7 shots on target (29 %)
Mon 31 Aug away vs Aston Villa · Defensive line − 0 offsides won
Mon 31 Aug away vs Aston Villa · Discipline − 1 cards, 6 fouls
Mon 31 Aug away vs Aston Villa · Duels + 57 % of duels won (51/90)
Mon 31 Aug away vs Aston Villa · Possession and duels − possession 61 %, duels 57 %
Mon 31 Aug away vs Aston Villa · Set pieces − 4 corners, 2 conceded
Mon 31 Aug away vs Aston Villa · Own box − 3 shots against from inside the box (7 in total)
Sat 19 Sep away vs Brighton · Finishing + 0 goals from 1.63 expected (-1.63)
Sat 19 Sep away vs Brighton · Threat by half + own threat 0.39 → 1.24 xG, opponents 0.36 → 0.95
Sat 19 Sep away vs Brighton · Goalkeeper − 2 saves
Sat 19 Sep away vs Brighton · Shooting accuracy + 2/11 shots on target (18 %)
Sat 19 Sep away vs Brighton · Defensive line − 0 offsides won
Sat 19 Sep away vs Brighton · Discipline − 1 cards, 11 fouls
Sat 19 Sep away vs Brighton · Duels − 50 % of duels won (51/102)
Sat 19 Sep away vs Brighton · Possession and duels − possession 60 %, duels 50 %
Sat 19 Sep away vs Brighton · Set pieces + 6 corners, 5 conceded
Sat 19 Sep away vs Brighton · Own box + 10 shots against from inside the box (17 in total)
Sat 19 Sep away vs Brighton · Box pressure + 10/11 shots from inside the box
Sat 12 Sep away vs Sunderland · Threat by half + own threat 0.77 → 1.11 xG, opponents 0.23 → 1.57
Sat 12 Sep away vs Sunderland · Goalkeeper − 2 saves
Sat 12 Sep away vs Sunderland · Shooting accuracy − 5/11 shots on target (45 %)
Sat 12 Sep away vs Sunderland · Discipline + 2 cards, 11 fouls
Sat 12 Sep away vs Sunderland · Duels + 59 % of duels won (53/90)
Sat 12 Sep away vs Sunderland · Possession and duels − possession 57 %, duels 59 %
Sat 12 Sep away vs Sunderland · Own box − 7 shots against from inside the box (12 in total)
Sat 12 Sep away vs Sunderland · Box pressure + 8/11 shots from inside the box
Sat 10 Oct home vs Leeds · Finishing + 2 goals from 2.66 expected (-0.66)
Sat 10 Oct home vs Leeds · Threat by half + own threat 0.45 → 2.21 xG, opponents 0.44 → 0.30
Sat 10 Oct home vs Leeds · Goalkeeper + 4 saves
Sat 10 Oct home vs Leeds · Shooting accuracy − 6/13 shots on target (46 %)
Sat 10 Oct home vs Leeds · Defensive line + 4 offsides won
Sat 10 Oct home vs Leeds · Discipline − 1 cards, 12 fouls
Sat 10 Oct home vs Leeds · Duels + 55 % of duels won (55/100)
Sat 10 Oct home vs Leeds · Possession and duels − possession 58 %, duels 55 %
Sat 10 Oct home vs Leeds · Set pieces − 3 corners, 4 conceded
Sat 10 Oct home vs Leeds · Own box − 7 shots against from inside the box (11 in total)
Sat 10 Oct home vs Leeds · Box pressure + 8/13 shots from inside the box
Hypothesis 1 · Goalkeeper State · closed · 6 matches
The goalkeeper's level may prove the difference for this team.
Supports
+ Sun 6.9. home vs Chelsea: 4 saves
+ Sat 10.10. home vs Leeds: 4 saves
Challenges
− Fri 21.8. home vs Coventry: 1 saves
− Mon 31.8. away vs Aston Villa: 0 saves
− Sat 19.9. away vs Brighton: 2 saves
− Sat 12.9. away vs Sunderland: 2 saves
Last season 70 % of shots on target kept out (27 conceded / 90)
Next test Will the shot-stopping level hold when shot quality changes?
Hypothesis 2 · Discipline State · closed · 6 matches
The cost of indiscipline may rise.
Supports
+ Sun 6.9. home vs Chelsea: 2 cards, 13 fouls
+ Sat 12.9. away vs Sunderland: 2 cards, 11 fouls
Challenges
− Fri 21.8. home vs Coventry: 1 cards, 10 fouls
− Mon 31.8. away vs Aston Villa: 1 cards, 6 fouls
− Sat 19.9. away vs Brighton: 1 cards, 11 fouls
− Sat 10.10. home vs Leeds: 1 cards, 12 fouls
Last season 1.3 cards and 10.3 fouls in the match
Next test Will cards add up to suspensions, or fouls to goals conceded?
Hypothesis 3 · Set pieces State · closed · 5 matches
Set pieces may keep coming to nothing.
Supports
+ Sat 19.9. away vs Brighton: 6 corners, 5 conceded
Challenges
− Sun 6.9. home vs Chelsea: 5 corners, 3 conceded
− Fri 21.8. home vs Coventry: 8 corners, 2 conceded
− Mon 31.8. away vs Aston Villa: 4 corners, 2 conceded
− Sat 10.10. home vs Leeds: 3 corners, 4 conceded
Last season 5.7 corners in the match, 3.4 against
Next test Will a corner or free kick produce a goal in the coming rounds?
Hypothesis 4 · Defensive line State · closed · 5 matches
The defence appears to hold a high line.
Supports
+ Sat 10.10. home vs Leeds: 4 offsides won
Challenges
− Sun 6.9. home vs Chelsea: 0 offsides won
− Fri 21.8. home vs Coventry: 0 offsides won
− Mon 31.8. away vs Aston Villa: 0 offsides won
− Sat 19.9. away vs Brighton: 0 offsides won
Next test Will the offside trap keep working even against a more direct opponent?
Hypothesis 5 · Own box State · closed · 6 matches
Opponents appear to get into the box too easily.
Supports
+ Sat 19.9. away vs Brighton: 10 shots against from inside the box (17 in total)
Challenges
− Sun 6.9. home vs Chelsea: 5 shots against from inside the box (13 in total)
− Fri 21.8. home vs Coventry: 1 shots against from inside the box (4 in total)
− Mon 31.8. away vs Aston Villa: 3 shots against from inside the box (7 in total)
− Sat 12.9. away vs Sunderland: 7 shots against from inside the box (12 in total)
− Sat 10.10. home vs Leeds: 7 shots against from inside the box (11 in total)
Last season 8.2 shots against in the match (no box split)
Next test Will shots conceded inside the box fall below eight?
Hypothesis 6 · Possession and duels State · closed · 6 matches
Possession may not be matched by duel wins.
Supports
+ Sun 6.9. home vs Chelsea: possession 55 %, duels 49 %
Challenges
− Fri 21.8. home vs Coventry: possession 64 %, duels 52 %
− Mon 31.8. away vs Aston Villa: possession 61 %, duels 57 %
− Sat 19.9. away vs Brighton: possession 60 %, duels 50 %
− Sat 12.9. away vs Sunderland: possession 57 %, duels 59 %
− Sat 10.10. home vs Leeds: possession 58 %, duels 55 %
Next test Will the duel balance flip when the opponent presses higher?
Line: deep line: the offside trap sprang only 6 times (18./20)
Progression: progresses with control: 38.6 passes per shot (league 3./20 most), possession 59 %
Set pieces: in attack 28 corners (league 8./20), no headed goals yet; in defence 20 corners against (20./20), no headed goals conceded
Second half: output weighted to the second half (3+7 goals); own threat grows in the second half (4.46 → 6.69 xG); opponents' threat grows (1.31 → 3.45 xG); first substitution on average at minute 58
When leading: withstood the pressure: led at half-time 1 time and kept the result even as the opponents' threat grew (opponents' xG 1.31 → 3.45)
The duels carry: 54 % of duels won (289/538), league 1./20
We track whether the duel wins hold as opponents change their approach.
The second half sharpens: Threat rose in the second half (xG 2nd – 1st half +2.23)
We track whether the second-half sharpening repeats: is it structure or the opponent.
| Finishing goals vs xG | Chance creation assists vs xA | |
| Defenders | −1.7 | +4.9 |
| Midfield | +3.7 | +6.1 |
| Forwards | +1.2 | −1.7 |
TEAM IDENTITY
Home ground
Arsenal left Highbury on 7.5.2006 and moved to the Emirates Stadium after 93 years.
source: Arsenal FC (arsenal.com), Club moves to Emirates StadiumTEAM MEMORY
Arsenal lose the Europa League final in Baku to Chelsea 1-4.
source: UEFA (uefa.com), Chelsea win the 2019 UEFA Europa League