MY CLUB
Hull City
THE SQUAD
● season 2026-27 · latest formation · round 6
NEXT CHECK
LAST MATCH
Hull City – Everton 2–2 (half-time 0–0) · goals: Belloumi, Gelhardt
PREVIEW IN HINDSIGHT
No preview was published before this match. The preview below was built after the match from pre-match data only (the same read would have been produced beforehand) and graded against what happened.
Watch first: Pressure vs the defence. Hull City shoot this season 12.2 times per match (14th in the league, not in the Premier League last season), Everton: 13.8 shots conceded (league 11.). The match's shot count tells which number held.
What happened: the defence won: 9 shots (baseline 12.2, opponent concedes 13.8).
Then watch: Finishing vs the goalkeeper. Hull City score this season from 9.8 percent of their shots (10th in the league, not in the Premier League last season), Everton: save percentage on shots on target 83.3 (league 2.). In the match this shows in whether the goal count matches the threat created.
What happened: the finishing held: 2 goals from 1.37 expected (+0.63), 22 % of shots scored.
Third: Set pieces. Hull City win this season 3.4 corners per match (17th in the league, not in the Premier League last season), Everton: 4.4 corners conceded (league 15.). The expectation is at least 3 corners.
What happened: expectation met: 7 corners (expected 3), 2 goals.
Fourth: Direct play delivers. Possession 32 % (20./20) and pass accuracy 72 % (20./20), yet output above expected (+0.48)
What happened: Direct play delivers repeated in this match: possession 35 %, 2 goals.
One more: The lead held to the end. The lead was kept more often than lost and the opponents' threat fell in the second half (xG in the 2nd half below the 1st)
What happened: The lead held to the end stayed open in this match: no half-time lead in this match.
Finally: Player pick. Konstantinos Tzolakis is the team's best in the match ratings this season: 25.8 points on average in 5 matches, top three 4 times.
What happened: Player pick did not hold: Konstantinos Tzolakis ranked 5/15 in his team's match ratings
From this match: 3/5 held
Result read from round data ●. Hits and misses are logged in the track record.
MANAGER'S CORNER · FANTASY
Every player in the league, form and risks → All playersTEAM BASELINE
The cost of indiscipline has grown: 2 cards, 15 fouls (Sun 11.10. home vs Everton).
Next match · vs Fulham: market probability ▷ Hull City 20 %, Fulham 56 %, even though in the table Hull City are 8th and Fulham 20th.
The cost of indiscipline may rise.
+ Sun 11.10. home vs Everton: 2 cards, 15 fouls
Next test Will cards add up to suspensions, or fouls to goals conceded?
Other tracked hypotheses (7)
Hypothesis 2 · Threat by half State · strengthening · 6 matches
The threat appears weighted towards the second half.
Supports
+ Sun 11.10. home vs Everton: own threat 0.57 → 0.80 xG, opponents 0.86 → 0.87
+ Sat 5.9. home vs Aston Villa: own threat 0.08 → 0.49 xG, opponents 0.57 → 1.36
+ Sat 29.8. away vs Coventry: own threat 0.02 → 0.70 xG, opponents 1.08 → 0.20
+ Sat 19.9. away vs Newcastle: own threat 0.34 → 1.26 xG, opponents 1.19 → 0.25
+ Sat 12.9. away vs Chelsea: own threat 0.44 → 0.94 xG, opponents 0.18 → 0.72
Challenges
− Sat 22.8. home vs Manchester United: own threat 1.16 → 0.10 xG, opponents 0.71 → 1.10
Next test Will the threat still grow from first half to second in a competitive match?
Hypothesis 3 · Own box State · strengthening · 6 matches
Opponents appear to get into the box too easily.
Supports
+ Sun 11.10. home vs Everton: 11 shots against from inside the box (15 in total)
+ Sat 5.9. home vs Aston Villa: 10 shots against from inside the box (13 in total)
+ Sat 22.8. home vs Manchester United: 15 shots against from inside the box (21 in total)
+ Sat 19.9. away vs Newcastle: 9 shots against from inside the box (12 in total)
Challenges
− Sat 29.8. away vs Coventry: 7 shots against from inside the box (11 in total)
− Sat 12.9. away vs Chelsea: 6 shots against from inside the box (12 in total)
Next test Will shots conceded inside the box fall below eight?
Hypothesis 4 · Duels State · strengthening · 6 matches
Duels appear to carry this team's game.
Supports
+ Sat 5.9. home vs Aston Villa: 55 % of duels won (46/84)
+ Sat 29.8. away vs Coventry: 55 % of duels won (45/82)
+ Sat 22.8. home vs Manchester United: 59 % of duels won (50/85)
+ Sat 19.9. away vs Newcastle: 52 % of duels won (50/96)
Challenges
− Sun 11.10. home vs Everton: 39 % of duels won (36/93)
− Sat 12.9. away vs Chelsea: 47 % of duels won (41/88)
Next test Will the duel-win rate stay above half even against a possession-dominant opponent?
Hypothesis 5 · Box pressure State · strengthening · 4 matches
The team appears to get into the box repeatedly.
Supports
+ Sun 11.10. home vs Everton: 9/9 shots from inside the box
+ Sat 19.9. away vs Newcastle: 12/22 shots from inside the box
+ Sat 12.9. away vs Chelsea: 9/14 shots from inside the box
Challenges
− Sat 29.8. away vs Coventry: 2/5 shots from inside the box
Next test Will shots in the box stay above eight when the opponent defends deeper?
Hypothesis 6 · Defensive line State · strengthening · 3 matches
The defence appears to hold a high line.
Supports
+ Sun 11.10. home vs Everton: 4 offsides won
+ Sat 29.8. away vs Coventry: 3 offsides won
+ Sat 22.8. home vs Manchester United: 3 offsides won
Challenges
No counter-evidence yet.
Next test Will the offside trap keep working even against a more direct opponent?
Hypothesis 7 · Goalkeeper State · mixed · 6 matches
The goalkeeper's level may prove the difference for this team.
Supports
+ Sun 11.10. home vs Everton: 4 saves
+ Sat 22.8. home vs Manchester United: 5 saves
+ Sat 12.9. away vs Chelsea: 5 saves
Challenges
− Sat 5.9. home vs Aston Villa: 1 saves
− Sat 29.8. away vs Coventry: 3 saves
− Sat 19.9. away vs Newcastle: 3 saves
Next test Will the shot-stopping level hold when shot quality changes?
Hypothesis 8 · Direct play delivers State · new · 6 matches
It looks like direct play carries even with the ball.
Supports
+ vs : Possession 33 % (20./20) and pass accuracy 72 % (20./20), yet output above expected (+1.11)
Challenges
No counter-evidence yet.
Next test Does this hold in the coming rounds: output stays above expected when opponents concede the ball voluntarily?
Show 57 findings
Sun 11 Oct home vs Everton · Finishing − 2 goals from 1.37 expected (+0.63)
Sun 11 Oct home vs Everton · Threat by half + own threat 0.57 → 0.80 xG, opponents 0.86 → 0.87
Sun 11 Oct home vs Everton · Goalkeeper + 4 saves
Sun 11 Oct home vs Everton · Shooting accuracy − 5/9 shots on target (56 %)
Sun 11 Oct home vs Everton · Defensive line + 4 offsides won
Sun 11 Oct home vs Everton · Discipline + 2 cards, 15 fouls
Sun 11 Oct home vs Everton · Duels − 39 % of duels won (36/93)
Sun 11 Oct home vs Everton · Possession and duels − possession 35 %, duels 39 %
Sun 11 Oct home vs Everton · Set pieces − 7 corners, 6 conceded
Sun 11 Oct home vs Everton · Own box + 11 shots against from inside the box (15 in total)
Sun 11 Oct home vs Everton · Box pressure + 9/9 shots from inside the box
Sat 5 Sep home vs Aston Villa · Finishing + 0 goals from 0.57 expected (-0.57)
Sat 5 Sep home vs Aston Villa · Threat by half + own threat 0.08 → 0.49 xG, opponents 0.57 → 1.36
Sat 5 Sep home vs Aston Villa · Goalkeeper − 1 saves
Sat 5 Sep home vs Aston Villa · Shooting accuracy − 4/11 shots on target (36 %)
Sat 5 Sep home vs Aston Villa · Discipline + 2 cards, 10 fouls
Sat 5 Sep home vs Aston Villa · Duels + 55 % of duels won (46/84)
Sat 5 Sep home vs Aston Villa · Possession and duels − possession 26 %, duels 55 %
Sat 5 Sep home vs Aston Villa · Own box + 10 shots against from inside the box (13 in total)
Sat 29 Aug away vs Coventry · Threat by half + own threat 0.02 → 0.70 xG, opponents 1.08 → 0.20
Sat 29 Aug away vs Coventry · Goalkeeper − 3 saves
Sat 29 Aug away vs Coventry · Shooting accuracy − 2/5 shots on target (40 %)
Sat 29 Aug away vs Coventry · Defensive line + 3 offsides won
Sat 29 Aug away vs Coventry · Discipline + 4 cards, 8 fouls
Sat 29 Aug away vs Coventry · Duels + 55 % of duels won (45/82)
Sat 29 Aug away vs Coventry · Possession and duels − possession 31 %, duels 55 %
Sat 29 Aug away vs Coventry · Own box − 7 shots against from inside the box (11 in total)
Sat 29 Aug away vs Coventry · Box pressure − 2/5 shots from inside the box
Sat 22 Aug home vs Manchester United · Finishing − 2 goals from 1.26 expected (+0.74)
Sat 22 Aug home vs Manchester United · Threat by half − own threat 1.16 → 0.10 xG, opponents 0.71 → 1.10
Sat 22 Aug home vs Manchester United · Goalkeeper + 5 saves
Sat 22 Aug home vs Manchester United · Shooting accuracy − 4/8 shots on target (50 %)
Sat 22 Aug home vs Manchester United · Defensive line + 3 offsides won
Sat 22 Aug home vs Manchester United · Discipline + 2 cards, 10 fouls
Sat 22 Aug home vs Manchester United · Duels + 59 % of duels won (50/85)
Sat 22 Aug home vs Manchester United · Possession and duels − possession 28 %, duels 59 %
Sat 22 Aug home vs Manchester United · Own box + 15 shots against from inside the box (21 in total)
Sat 19 Sep away vs Newcastle · Finishing + 1 goals from 1.59 expected (-0.59)
Sat 19 Sep away vs Newcastle · Threat by half + own threat 0.34 → 1.26 xG, opponents 1.19 → 0.25
Sat 19 Sep away vs Newcastle · Goalkeeper − 3 saves
Sat 19 Sep away vs Newcastle · Shooting accuracy + 4/22 shots on target (18 %)
Sat 19 Sep away vs Newcastle · Discipline + 4 cards, 10 fouls
Sat 19 Sep away vs Newcastle · Duels + 52 % of duels won (50/96)
Sat 19 Sep away vs Newcastle · Possession and duels − possession 44 %, duels 52 %
Sat 19 Sep away vs Newcastle · Set pieces − 7 corners, 4 conceded
Sat 19 Sep away vs Newcastle · Own box + 9 shots against from inside the box (12 in total)
Sat 19 Sep away vs Newcastle · Box pressure + 12/22 shots from inside the box
Sat 12 Sep away vs Chelsea · Finishing − 2 goals from 1.38 expected (+0.62)
Sat 12 Sep away vs Chelsea · Threat by half + own threat 0.44 → 0.94 xG, opponents 0.18 → 0.72
Sat 12 Sep away vs Chelsea · Goalkeeper + 5 saves
Sat 12 Sep away vs Chelsea · Shooting accuracy − 5/14 shots on target (36 %)
Sat 12 Sep away vs Chelsea · Discipline + 5 cards, 12 fouls
Sat 12 Sep away vs Chelsea · Duels − 47 % of duels won (41/88)
Sat 12 Sep away vs Chelsea · Possession and duels − possession 32 %, duels 47 %
Sat 12 Sep away vs Chelsea · Set pieces − 4 corners, 10 conceded
Sat 12 Sep away vs Chelsea · Own box − 6 shots against from inside the box (12 in total)
Sat 12 Sep away vs Chelsea · Box pressure + 9/14 shots from inside the box
Suljetut hypoteesit (4)
Hypothesis 1 · Finishing State · closed · 5 matches
Goal output may keep falling short of the chances created.
Supports
+ Sat 5.9. home vs Aston Villa: 0 goals from 0.57 expected (-0.57)
+ Sat 19.9. away vs Newcastle: 1 goals from 1.59 expected (-0.59)
Challenges
− Sun 11.10. home vs Everton: 2 goals from 1.37 expected (+0.63)
− Sat 22.8. home vs Manchester United: 2 goals from 1.26 expected (+0.74)
− Sat 12.9. away vs Chelsea: 2 goals from 1.38 expected (+0.62)
Next test Will the goal count move closer to the expected number in the next match?
Hypothesis 2 · Shooting accuracy State · closed · 6 matches
Shots don't appear to hit the target often enough.
Supports
+ Sat 19.9. away vs Newcastle: 4/22 shots on target (18 %)
Challenges
− Sun 11.10. home vs Everton: 5/9 shots on target (56 %)
− Sat 5.9. home vs Aston Villa: 4/11 shots on target (36 %)
− Sat 29.8. away vs Coventry: 2/5 shots on target (40 %)
− Sat 22.8. home vs Manchester United: 4/8 shots on target (50 %)
− Sat 12.9. away vs Chelsea: 5/14 shots on target (36 %)
Next test Will the share of shots on target rise above a third?
Hypothesis 3 · Possession and duels State · closed · 6 matches
Possession may not be matched by duel wins.
Supports
No longer backed by the evidence.
Challenges
− Sun 11.10. home vs Everton: possession 35 %, duels 39 %
− Sat 5.9. home vs Aston Villa: possession 26 %, duels 55 %
− Sat 29.8. away vs Coventry: possession 31 %, duels 55 %
− Sat 22.8. home vs Manchester United: possession 28 %, duels 59 %
− Sat 19.9. away vs Newcastle: possession 44 %, duels 52 %
− Sat 12.9. away vs Chelsea: possession 32 %, duels 47 %
Next test Will the duel balance flip when the opponent presses higher?
Hypothesis 4 · Set pieces State · closed · 3 matches
Set pieces may keep coming to nothing.
Supports
No longer backed by the evidence.
Challenges
− Sun 11.10. home vs Everton: 7 corners, 6 conceded
− Sat 19.9. away vs Newcastle: 7 corners, 4 conceded
− Sat 12.9. away vs Chelsea: 4 corners, 10 conceded
Next test Will a corner or free kick produce a goal in the coming rounds?
Measured numbers for the season
Line: line mid-level: 15 offsides drawn
Progression: progresses directly: 24.6 passes per shot (league's most direct 3./20), possession 33 %
Set pieces: in attack 24 corners (league 15./20), no headed goals yet; in defence 36 corners against (1./20), no headed goals conceded
Second half: own end leaks late (concessions 3+4); own threat grows in the second half (2.61 → 4.29 xG); opponents' threat holds (4.59 → 4.50 xG); first substitution on average at minute 57
When leading: the lead broke: 2 leads at half-time, the result did not hold (opponent xG 4.59 → 4.50)
Direct play delivers: Possession 33 % (20./20) and pass accuracy 72 % (20./20), yet output above expected (+1.11)
We track whether the direct game carries even when opponents concede the ball voluntarily.
The lead held to the end: The lead was kept more often than lost and the opponents' threat fell in the second half (xG in the 2nd half below the 1st)
We track whether the lead holds against stronger opponents and whether the opponents' threat keeps falling in the 2nd half.
The second half sharpens: Threat rose in the second half (xG 2nd – 1st half +1.68)
We track whether the second-half sharpening repeats: is it structure or the opponent.
TEAM MEMORY
No verified club memory for this date.