MY CLUB
Coventry
THE SQUAD
● season 2026-27 · latest formation · round 6
NEXT CHECK
LAST MATCH
Coventry – Newcastle 4–1 (half-time 1–0) · goals: Cherif, Mfuni, Rudoni, Simms
PREVIEW IN HINDSIGHT
No preview was published before this match. The preview below was built after the match from pre-match data only (the same read would have been produced beforehand) and graded against what happened.
Watch first: Pressure vs the defence. Coventry shoot this season 10.2 times per match (18th in the league, not in the Premier League last season), Newcastle: 19.6 shots conceded (league 20.). The match's shot count tells which number held.
What happened: the defence won: 9 shots (baseline 10.2, opponent concedes 19.6).
Then watch: Finishing vs the goalkeeper. Coventry score this season from 2.0 percent of their shots (20th in the league, not in the Premier League last season), Newcastle: save percentage on shots on target 67.9 (league 9.). In the match this shows in whether the goal count matches the threat created.
What happened: the finishing held: 4 goals from 1.47 expected (+2.53), 44 % of shots scored.
Third: Set pieces. Coventry win this season 4.0 corners per match (13th in the league, not in the Premier League last season), Newcastle: 6.0 corners conceded (league 2.). The expectation is at least 4 corners.
What happened: fell short of expectation: 2 corners (expected 4), 4 goals.
Fourth: Attacking inefficiency. 1 goals from 4.85 expected (xG), a gap of -3.85, league 20./20
What happened: Attacking inefficiency turned in this match: 4 goals from 1.47 xG (+2.53).
One more: The whole system at the bottom end. Possession 39 % (league 19./20), own output 0.97 xG and 1.73 xG given to opponents (6./20 most): 5 metrics at the bottom end at once
What happened: The whole system at the bottom end turned in this match: possession 33 %, 4 goals.
Finally: Player pick. Bobby Thomas is the team's best in the match ratings this season: 15.6 points on average in 5 matches, top three 4 times.
What happened: Player pick did not hold: Bobby Thomas ranked 5/16 in his team's match ratings
From this match: 1/6 held
Result read from round data ●. Hits and misses are logged in the track record.
TEAM BASELINE
The box has been reached too easily: 14 shots against from inside the box (22 in total) (Sun 13.9. home vs Brighton).
Next match · vs Tottenham: market probability ▷ Coventry 16 %, Tottenham 64 %, even though in the table Coventry are 14th and Tottenham 19th.
Opponents appear to get into the box too easily.
+ Sun 13.9. home vs Brighton: 14 shots against from inside the box (22 in total)
− Sat 29.8. home vs Hull City: 2 shots against from inside the box (5 in total)
Next test Will shots conceded inside the box fall below eight?
Other tracked hypotheses (6)
Hypothesis 2 · Shooting accuracy State · strengthening · 6 matches
Shots don't appear to hit the target often enough.
Supports
+ Fri 21.8. away vs Arsenal: 1/4 shots on target (25 %)
+ Sat 5.9. away vs Manchester City: 3/12 shots on target (25 %)
+ Sat 29.8. home vs Hull City: 3/11 shots on target (27 %)
+ Sat 19.9. away vs Nottingham Forest: 3/10 shots on target (30 %)
Challenges
− Sun 13.9. home vs Brighton: 6/14 shots on target (43 %)
− Mon 12.10. home vs Newcastle: 6/9 shots on target (67 %)
Next test Will the share of shots on target rise above a third?
Hypothesis 3 · Finishing State · strengthening · 4 matches
Goal output may keep falling short of the chances created.
Supports
+ Sun 13.9. home vs Brighton: 0 goals from 1.33 expected (-1.33)
+ Sat 5.9. away vs Manchester City: 0 goals from 1.37 expected (-1.37)
+ Sat 29.8. home vs Hull City: 0 goals from 1.28 expected (-1.28)
Challenges
− Mon 12.10. home vs Newcastle: 4 goals from 1.47 expected (+2.53)
Next test Will the goal count move closer to the expected number in the next match?
Hypothesis 4 · Defensive line State · strengthening · 4 matches
The defence appears to hold a high line.
Supports
+ Fri 21.8. away vs Arsenal: 5 offsides won
+ Mon 12.10. home vs Newcastle: 5 offsides won
+ Sat 5.9. away vs Manchester City: 5 offsides won
Challenges
− Sat 29.8. home vs Hull City: 0 offsides won
Next test Will the offside trap keep working even against a more direct opponent?
Hypothesis 5 · Set pieces State · strengthening · 3 matches
Set pieces may keep coming to nothing.
Supports
+ Sun 13.9. home vs Brighton: 5 corners, 3 conceded
+ Sat 5.9. away vs Manchester City: 5 corners, 4 conceded
+ Sat 29.8. home vs Hull City: 6 corners, 2 conceded
Challenges
No counter-evidence yet.
Next test Will a corner or free kick produce a goal in the coming rounds?
Hypothesis 6 · Box pressure State · mixed · 3 matches
The team appears to get into the box repeatedly.
Supports
+ Sun 13.9. home vs Brighton: 12/14 shots from inside the box
+ Sat 5.9. away vs Manchester City: 8/12 shots from inside the box
Challenges
− Fri 21.8. away vs Arsenal: 1/4 shots from inside the box
Next test Will shots in the box stay above eight when the opponent defends deeper?
Hypothesis 7 · The whole system at the bottom end State · new · 6 matches
It looks like one metric rises first.
Supports
+ vs : Possession 38 % (league 19./20), own output 1.05 xG and 1.75 xG given to opponents (3./20 most): 6 metrics at the bottom end at once
Challenges
No counter-evidence yet.
Next test Does this hold in the coming rounds: a systemic concern only clears with several metrics moving; we track which climbs first, possession or their own output?
Show 55 findings
Sun 13 Sep home vs Brighton · Finishing + 0 goals from 1.33 expected (-1.33)
Sun 13 Sep home vs Brighton · Threat by half − own threat 0.97 → 0.37 xG, opponents 0.97 → 1.83
Sun 13 Sep home vs Brighton · Goalkeeper − 2 saves
Sun 13 Sep home vs Brighton · Shooting accuracy − 6/14 shots on target (43 %)
Sun 13 Sep home vs Brighton · Duels + 57 % of duels won (55/96)
Sun 13 Sep home vs Brighton · Possession and duels − possession 31 %, duels 57 %
Sun 13 Sep home vs Brighton · Set pieces + 5 corners, 3 conceded
Sun 13 Sep home vs Brighton · Own box + 14 shots against from inside the box (22 in total)
Sun 13 Sep home vs Brighton · Box pressure + 12/14 shots from inside the box
Fri 21 Aug away vs Arsenal · Threat by half + own threat 0.04 → 0.16 xG, opponents 1.32 → 0.56
Fri 21 Aug away vs Arsenal · Goalkeeper − 2 saves
Fri 21 Aug away vs Arsenal · Shooting accuracy + 1/4 shots on target (25 %)
Fri 21 Aug away vs Arsenal · Defensive line + 5 offsides won
Fri 21 Aug away vs Arsenal · Discipline − 1 cards, 13 fouls
Fri 21 Aug away vs Arsenal · Duels − 48 % of duels won (34/71)
Fri 21 Aug away vs Arsenal · Possession and duels − possession 36 %, duels 48 %
Fri 21 Aug away vs Arsenal · Own box + 10 shots against from inside the box (20 in total)
Fri 21 Aug away vs Arsenal · Box pressure − 1/4 shots from inside the box
Mon 12 Oct home vs Newcastle · Finishing − 4 goals from 1.47 expected (+2.53)
Mon 12 Oct home vs Newcastle · Threat by half − own threat 0.88 → 0.59 xG, opponents 1.23 → 0.64
Mon 12 Oct home vs Newcastle · Goalkeeper + 4 saves
Mon 12 Oct home vs Newcastle · Shooting accuracy − 6/9 shots on target (67 %)
Mon 12 Oct home vs Newcastle · Defensive line + 5 offsides won
Mon 12 Oct home vs Newcastle · Discipline − 1 cards, 3 fouls
Mon 12 Oct home vs Newcastle · Duels − 46 % of duels won (37/81)
Mon 12 Oct home vs Newcastle · Possession and duels − possession 33 %, duels 46 %
Mon 12 Oct home vs Newcastle · Own box + 11 shots against from inside the box (19 in total)
Sat 5 Sep away vs Manchester City · Finishing + 0 goals from 1.37 expected (-1.37)
Sat 5 Sep away vs Manchester City · Threat by half − own threat 0.73 → 0.64 xG, opponents 1.08 → 1.04
Sat 5 Sep away vs Manchester City · Goalkeeper − 2 saves
Sat 5 Sep away vs Manchester City · Shooting accuracy + 3/12 shots on target (25 %)
Sat 5 Sep away vs Manchester City · Defensive line + 5 offsides won
Sat 5 Sep away vs Manchester City · Discipline + 2 cards, 17 fouls
Sat 5 Sep away vs Manchester City · Duels − 41 % of duels won (44/107)
Sat 5 Sep away vs Manchester City · Possession and duels − possession 22 %, duels 41 %
Sat 5 Sep away vs Manchester City · Set pieces + 5 corners, 4 conceded
Sat 5 Sep away vs Manchester City · Own box + 14 shots against from inside the box (15 in total)
Sat 5 Sep away vs Manchester City · Box pressure + 8/12 shots from inside the box
Sat 29 Aug home vs Hull City · Finishing + 0 goals from 1.28 expected (-1.28)
Sat 29 Aug home vs Hull City · Threat by half − own threat 1.08 → 0.20 xG, opponents 0.02 → 0.70
Sat 29 Aug home vs Hull City · Goalkeeper − 1 saves
Sat 29 Aug home vs Hull City · Shooting accuracy + 3/11 shots on target (27 %)
Sat 29 Aug home vs Hull City · Defensive line − 0 offsides won
Sat 29 Aug home vs Hull City · Discipline − 1 cards, 11 fouls
Sat 29 Aug home vs Hull City · Duels − 44 % of duels won (36/81)
Sat 29 Aug home vs Hull City · Possession and duels + possession 69 %, duels 44 %
Sat 29 Aug home vs Hull City · Set pieces + 6 corners, 2 conceded
Sat 29 Aug home vs Hull City · Own box − 2 shots against from inside the box (5 in total)
Sat 19 Sep away vs Nottingham Forest · Threat by half + own threat 0.25 → 0.43 xG, opponents 0.60 → 0.50
Sat 19 Sep away vs Nottingham Forest · Goalkeeper − 2 saves
Sat 19 Sep away vs Nottingham Forest · Shooting accuracy + 3/10 shots on target (30 %)
Sat 19 Sep away vs Nottingham Forest · Discipline − 0 cards, 10 fouls
Sat 19 Sep away vs Nottingham Forest · Duels − 51 % of duels won (54/106)
Sat 19 Sep away vs Nottingham Forest · Possession and duels − possession 38 %, duels 51 %
Sat 19 Sep away vs Nottingham Forest · Own box + 12 shots against from inside the box (24 in total)
Suljetut hypoteesit (5)
Hypothesis 1 · Threat by half State · closed · 6 matches
The threat appears weighted towards the second half.
Supports
+ Fri 21.8. away vs Arsenal: own threat 0.04 → 0.16 xG, opponents 1.32 → 0.56
+ Sat 19.9. away vs Nottingham Forest: own threat 0.25 → 0.43 xG, opponents 0.60 → 0.50
Challenges
− Sun 13.9. home vs Brighton: own threat 0.97 → 0.37 xG, opponents 0.97 → 1.83
− Mon 12.10. home vs Newcastle: own threat 0.88 → 0.59 xG, opponents 1.23 → 0.64
− Sat 5.9. away vs Manchester City: own threat 0.73 → 0.64 xG, opponents 1.08 → 1.04
− Sat 29.8. home vs Hull City: own threat 1.08 → 0.20 xG, opponents 0.02 → 0.70
Next test Will the threat still grow from first half to second in a competitive match?
Hypothesis 2 · Possession and duels State · closed · 6 matches
Possession may not be matched by duel wins.
Supports
+ Sat 29.8. home vs Hull City: possession 69 %, duels 44 %
Challenges
− Sun 13.9. home vs Brighton: possession 31 %, duels 57 %
− Fri 21.8. away vs Arsenal: possession 36 %, duels 48 %
− Mon 12.10. home vs Newcastle: possession 33 %, duels 46 %
− Sat 5.9. away vs Manchester City: possession 22 %, duels 41 %
− Sat 19.9. away vs Nottingham Forest: possession 38 %, duels 51 %
Next test Will the duel balance flip when the opponent presses higher?
Hypothesis 3 · Duels State · closed · 6 matches
Duels appear to carry this team's game.
Supports
+ Sun 13.9. home vs Brighton: 57 % of duels won (55/96)
Challenges
− Fri 21.8. away vs Arsenal: 48 % of duels won (34/71)
− Mon 12.10. home vs Newcastle: 46 % of duels won (37/81)
− Sat 5.9. away vs Manchester City: 41 % of duels won (44/107)
− Sat 29.8. home vs Hull City: 44 % of duels won (36/81)
− Sat 19.9. away vs Nottingham Forest: 51 % of duels won (54/106)
Next test Will the duel-win rate stay above half even against a possession-dominant opponent?
Hypothesis 4 · Goalkeeper State · closed · 6 matches
The goalkeeper's level may prove the difference for this team.
Supports
+ Mon 12.10. home vs Newcastle: 4 saves
Challenges
− Sun 13.9. home vs Brighton: 2 saves
− Fri 21.8. away vs Arsenal: 2 saves
− Sat 5.9. away vs Manchester City: 2 saves
− Sat 29.8. home vs Hull City: 1 saves
− Sat 19.9. away vs Nottingham Forest: 2 saves
Next test Will the shot-stopping level hold when shot quality changes?
Hypothesis 5 · Discipline State · closed · 5 matches
The cost of indiscipline may rise.
Supports
+ Sat 5.9. away vs Manchester City: 2 cards, 17 fouls
Challenges
− Fri 21.8. away vs Arsenal: 1 cards, 13 fouls
− Mon 12.10. home vs Newcastle: 1 cards, 3 fouls
− Sat 29.8. home vs Hull City: 1 cards, 11 fouls
− Sat 19.9. away vs Nottingham Forest: 0 cards, 10 fouls
Next test Will cards add up to suspensions, or fouls to goals conceded?
Measured numbers for the season
Line: high line: opponents caught offside 19 times (league 2./20)
Progression: progression mid-table: 32.6 passes per shot, possession 38 %
Set pieces: in attack 22 corners (league 17./20), no headed goals yet; in defence 29 corners against (7./20), no headed goals conceded
Second half: output weighted to the second half (1+4 goals); own end leaks late (concessions 4+7); own threat falls in the second half (3.95 → 2.39 xG); opponents' threat holds (5.22 → 5.27 xG); first substitution on average at minute 58
When leading: the lead broke: 1 lead at half-time, the result did not hold (opponent xG 5.22 → 5.27)
The whole system at the bottom end: Possession 38 % (league 19./20), own output 1.05 xG and 1.75 xG given to opponents (3./20 most): 6 metrics at the bottom end at once
We track whether any metric climbs out of the tail: a systemic concern only clears with several metrics moving.
Opponents get into the box: 63 shots against from inside the box (2nd most of 20), 105 shots in total (60 % from the box)
We track whether the number of shots conceded in the box narrows: leaking the box predicts goals conceded over a longer sample.
The second half fades: Threat fell in the second half (xG 2nd – 1st half -1.56)
We track whether the second-half fade turns around: do the decisive moments keep coming against less and less threat.
TEAM MEMORY
No verified club memory for this date.