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THE SQUAD
● season 2026-27 · latest formation · round 6
NEXT CHECK
LAST MATCH
Sunderland – Brighton 0–2 (half-time 0–0) · goals: De Cuyper, Hadjam
PREVIEW IN HINDSIGHT
No preview was published before this match. The preview below was built after the match from pre-match data only (the same read would have been produced beforehand) and graded against what happened.
Watch first: Pressure vs the defence. Brighton shoot this season 19.0 times per match (2nd in the league, last season 13.0 and 7th in the league), Sunderland: 12.0 shots conceded (league 8.). The match's shot count tells which number held.
What happened: between the readings: 13 shots (baseline 19.0, opponent concedes 12.0).
Then watch: Finishing vs the goalkeeper. Brighton score this season from 16.8 percent of their shots (3rd in the league, last season 10.5 and 15th in the league), Sunderland: save percentage on shots on target 37.5 (league 20.). In the match this shows in whether the goal count matches the threat created.
What happened: the finishing held: 2 goals from 1.14 expected (+0.86), 15 % of shots scored.
Third: Set pieces. Brighton win this season 5.4 corners per match (6th in the league, last season 4.9 and 12th in the league), Sunderland: 3.8 corners conceded (league 19.). The expectation is at least 4 corners.
What happened: expectation met: 5 corners (expected 4), 2 goals.
Fourth: Box pressure delivers. 63 shots from inside the box (league 2./20) and 16 goals, 95 shots in total (2./20)
What happened: Box pressure delivers repeated in this match: 6 shots from the box, 2 goals, 12 shots against.
One more: The cost of indiscipline grows. 12 cards (league 2./20) and 65 fouls (5./20)
What happened: The cost of indiscipline grows repeated in this match: 2 cards, 12 fouls.
Finally: Rhythm. 62% of the goals came in the second half; the attack sharpens late.
What happened: Rhythm claim held (sharpens late): goals by half 0+2.
And: Player pick. Pascal Groß is the team's best in the match ratings this season: 33.2 points on average in 5 matches, top three 3 times.
What happened: Player pick did not hold: Pascal Groß ranked 4/16 in his team's match ratings and produced 0+1.
And: Style of play. Keeps the ball: possession 54 % and 476 passes/match (league 5.).
What happened: Style claim did not hold: possession 38 % (league level 50 %).
From this match: 5/7 held
Result read from round data ●. Hits and misses are logged in the track record.
MANAGER'S CORNER · FANTASY
TEAM BASELINE
The team reaches the box: 13/15 shots from inside the box (Sun 30.8. away vs Chelsea).
The team appears to get into the box repeatedly.
+ Sun 30.8. away vs Chelsea: 13/15 shots from inside the box
Last season 13.0 shots in the match (no box split from last season, so the comparison is shot count)
Next test Will shots in the box stay above eight when the opponent defends deeper?
Hypothesis 2 · Discipline State · strengthening · 5 matches
The cost of indiscipline may rise.
Supports
+ Sun 30.8. away vs Chelsea: 3 cards, 12 fouls
+ Sun 23.8. home vs Aston Villa: 2 cards, 12 fouls
+ Sat 5.9. home vs Leeds: 3 cards, 13 fouls
+ Sat 19.9. home vs Arsenal: 4 cards, 13 fouls
+ Sat 10.10. away vs Sunderland: 2 cards, 12 fouls
Challenges
No counter-evidence yet.
Last season 2.3 cards and 11.9 fouls in the match
Next test Will cards add up to suspensions, or fouls to goals conceded?
Hypothesis 3 · Threat by half State · strengthening · 6 matches
The threat appears weighted towards the second half.
Supports
+ Sun 13.9. away vs Coventry: own threat 0.97 → 1.83 xG, opponents 0.97 → 0.37
+ Sat 5.9. home vs Leeds: own threat 0.06 → 2.14 xG, opponents 1.90 → 0.60
+ Sat 19.9. home vs Arsenal: own threat 0.36 → 0.95 xG, opponents 0.39 → 1.24
+ Sat 10.10. away vs Sunderland: own threat 0.47 → 0.67 xG, opponents 0.43 → 0.25
Challenges
− Sun 30.8. away vs Chelsea: own threat 1.06 → 0.50 xG, opponents 1.93 → 1.04
− Sun 23.8. home vs Aston Villa: own threat 2.96 → 0.71 xG, opponents 0.18 → 0.13
Last season 62 % of goals came in the second half (32 / 52)
Next test Will the threat still grow from first half to second in a competitive match?
Hypothesis 4 · Own box State · strengthening · 6 matches
Opponents appear to get into the box too easily.
Supports
+ Sun 30.8. away vs Chelsea: 15 shots against from inside the box (17 in total)
+ Sun 13.9. away vs Coventry: 12 shots against from inside the box (14 in total)
+ Sat 5.9. home vs Leeds: 10 shots against from inside the box (10 in total)
+ Sat 19.9. home vs Arsenal: 10 shots against from inside the box (11 in total)
Challenges
− Sun 23.8. home vs Aston Villa: 2 shots against from inside the box (6 in total)
− Sat 10.10. away vs Sunderland: 4 shots against from inside the box (12 in total)
Last season 11.7 shots against in the match (no box split)
Next test Will shots conceded inside the box fall below eight?
Hypothesis 5 · Possession and duels State · mixed · 6 matches
Possession may not be matched by duel wins.
Supports
+ Sun 30.8. away vs Chelsea: possession 74 %, duels 46 %
+ Sun 13.9. away vs Coventry: possession 69 %, duels 43 %
+ Sat 5.9. home vs Leeds: possession 67 %, duels 48 %
Challenges
− Sun 23.8. home vs Aston Villa: possession 73 %, duels 52 %
− Sat 19.9. home vs Arsenal: possession 40 %, duels 50 %
− Sat 10.10. away vs Sunderland: possession 38 %, duels 50 %
Next test Will the duel balance flip when the opponent presses higher?
Hypothesis 6 · Shooting accuracy State · mixed · 6 matches
Shots don't appear to hit the target often enough.
Supports
+ Sun 23.8. home vs Aston Villa: 6/21 shots on target (29 %)
+ Sat 5.9. home vs Leeds: 5/20 shots on target (25 %)
+ Sat 19.9. home vs Arsenal: 5/17 shots on target (29 %)
Challenges
− Sun 30.8. away vs Chelsea: 6/15 shots on target (40 %)
− Sun 13.9. away vs Coventry: 7/22 shots on target (32 %)
− Sat 10.10. away vs Sunderland: 4/13 shots on target (31 %)
Last season 36 % of shots on target (176 / 495)
Next test Will the share of shots on target rise above a third?
Hypothesis 7 · Defensive line Status · new · 1 match
The defence appears to hold a high line.
Supports
+ Sat 10.10. away vs Sunderland: 5 offsides won
Challenges
No counter-evidence yet.
Next test Will the offside trap keep working even against a more direct opponent?
Sun 30 Aug away vs Chelsea · Finishing − 3 goals from 1.56 expected (+1.44)
Sun 30 Aug away vs Chelsea · Threat by half − own threat 1.06 → 0.50 xG, opponents 1.93 → 1.04
Sun 30 Aug away vs Chelsea · Goalkeeper − 1 saves
Sun 30 Aug away vs Chelsea · Shooting accuracy − 6/15 shots on target (40 %)
Sun 30 Aug away vs Chelsea · Discipline + 3 cards, 12 fouls
Sun 30 Aug away vs Chelsea · Duels − 46 % of duels won (36/79)
Sun 30 Aug away vs Chelsea · Possession and duels + possession 74 %, duels 46 %
Sun 30 Aug away vs Chelsea · Set pieces − 7 corners, 4 conceded
Sun 30 Aug away vs Chelsea · Own box + 15 shots against from inside the box (17 in total)
Sun 30 Aug away vs Chelsea · Box pressure + 13/15 shots from inside the box
Sun 23 Aug home vs Aston Villa · Threat by half − own threat 2.96 → 0.71 xG, opponents 0.18 → 0.13
Sun 23 Aug home vs Aston Villa · Goalkeeper − 0 saves
Sun 23 Aug home vs Aston Villa · Shooting accuracy + 6/21 shots on target (29 %)
Sun 23 Aug home vs Aston Villa · Discipline + 2 cards, 12 fouls
Sun 23 Aug home vs Aston Villa · Duels + 52 % of duels won (50/96)
Sun 23 Aug home vs Aston Villa · Possession and duels − possession 73 %, duels 52 %
Sun 23 Aug home vs Aston Villa · Set pieces − 5 corners, 2 conceded
Sun 23 Aug home vs Aston Villa · Own box − 2 shots against from inside the box (6 in total)
Sun 23 Aug home vs Aston Villa · Box pressure + 15/21 shots from inside the box
Sun 13 Sep away vs Coventry · Finishing − 5 goals from 2.81 expected (+2.19)
Sun 13 Sep away vs Coventry · Threat by half + own threat 0.97 → 1.83 xG, opponents 0.97 → 0.37
Sun 13 Sep away vs Coventry · Goalkeeper + 6 saves
Sun 13 Sep away vs Coventry · Shooting accuracy − 7/22 shots on target (32 %)
Sun 13 Sep away vs Coventry · Duels − 43 % of duels won (41/96)
Sun 13 Sep away vs Coventry · Possession and duels + possession 69 %, duels 43 %
Sun 13 Sep away vs Coventry · Set pieces − 3 corners, 5 conceded
Sun 13 Sep away vs Coventry · Own box + 12 shots against from inside the box (14 in total)
Sun 13 Sep away vs Coventry · Box pressure + 14/22 shots from inside the box
Sat 5 Sep home vs Leeds · Finishing + 1 goals from 2.19 expected (-1.19)
Sat 5 Sep home vs Leeds · Threat by half + own threat 0.06 → 2.14 xG, opponents 1.90 → 0.60
Sat 5 Sep home vs Leeds · Goalkeeper − 3 saves
Sat 5 Sep home vs Leeds · Shooting accuracy + 5/20 shots on target (25 %)
Sat 5 Sep home vs Leeds · Discipline + 3 cards, 13 fouls
Sat 5 Sep home vs Leeds · Duels − 48 % of duels won (54/112)
Sat 5 Sep home vs Leeds · Possession and duels + possession 67 %, duels 48 %
Sat 5 Sep home vs Leeds · Set pieces − 7 corners, 6 conceded
Sat 5 Sep home vs Leeds · Own box + 10 shots against from inside the box (10 in total)
Sat 5 Sep home vs Leeds · Box pressure + 11/20 shots from inside the box
Sat 19 Sep home vs Arsenal · Finishing − 3 goals from 1.31 expected (+1.69)
Sat 19 Sep home vs Arsenal · Threat by half + own threat 0.36 → 0.95 xG, opponents 0.39 → 1.24
Sat 19 Sep home vs Arsenal · Goalkeeper − 2 saves
Sat 19 Sep home vs Arsenal · Shooting accuracy + 5/17 shots on target (29 %)
Sat 19 Sep home vs Arsenal · Discipline + 4 cards, 13 fouls
Sat 19 Sep home vs Arsenal · Duels − 50 % of duels won (51/102)
Sat 19 Sep home vs Arsenal · Possession and duels − possession 40 %, duels 50 %
Sat 19 Sep home vs Arsenal · Set pieces − 5 corners, 6 conceded
Sat 19 Sep home vs Arsenal · Own box + 10 shots against from inside the box (11 in total)
Sat 19 Sep home vs Arsenal · Box pressure + 10/17 shots from inside the box
Sat 10 Oct away vs Sunderland · Finishing − 2 goals from 1.14 expected (+0.86)
Sat 10 Oct away vs Sunderland · Threat by half + own threat 0.47 → 0.67 xG, opponents 0.43 → 0.25
Sat 10 Oct away vs Sunderland · Goalkeeper − 3 saves
Sat 10 Oct away vs Sunderland · Shooting accuracy − 4/13 shots on target (31 %)
Sat 10 Oct away vs Sunderland · Defensive line + 5 offsides won
Sat 10 Oct away vs Sunderland · Discipline + 2 cards, 12 fouls
Sat 10 Oct away vs Sunderland · Duels − 50 % of duels won (52/104)
Sat 10 Oct away vs Sunderland · Possession and duels − possession 38 %, duels 50 %
Sat 10 Oct away vs Sunderland · Set pieces − 5 corners, 7 conceded
Sat 10 Oct away vs Sunderland · Own box − 4 shots against from inside the box (12 in total)
Hypothesis 1 · Finishing State · closed · 5 matches
Goal output may keep falling short of the chances created.
Supports
+ Sat 5.9. home vs Leeds: 1 goals from 2.19 expected (-1.19)
Challenges
− Sun 30.8. away vs Chelsea: 3 goals from 1.56 expected (+1.44)
− Sun 13.9. away vs Coventry: 5 goals from 2.81 expected (+2.19)
− Sat 19.9. home vs Arsenal: 3 goals from 1.31 expected (+1.69)
− Sat 10.10. away vs Sunderland: 2 goals from 1.14 expected (+0.86)
Last season 1.4 goals and 13.0 shots in the match, 11 % of shots scored
Next test Will the goal count move closer to the expected number in the next match?
Hypothesis 2 · Goalkeeper State · closed · 6 matches
The goalkeeper's level may prove the difference for this team.
Supports
+ Sun 13.9. away vs Coventry: 6 saves
Challenges
− Sun 30.8. away vs Chelsea: 1 saves
− Sun 23.8. home vs Aston Villa: 0 saves
− Sat 5.9. home vs Leeds: 3 saves
− Sat 19.9. home vs Arsenal: 2 saves
− Sat 10.10. away vs Sunderland: 3 saves
Last season 69 % of shots on target kept out (46 conceded / 148)
Next test Will the shot-stopping level hold when shot quality changes?
Hypothesis 3 · Duels State · closed · 6 matches
Duels appear to carry this team's game.
Supports
+ Sun 23.8. home vs Aston Villa: 52 % of duels won (50/96)
Challenges
− Sun 30.8. away vs Chelsea: 46 % of duels won (36/79)
− Sun 13.9. away vs Coventry: 43 % of duels won (41/96)
− Sat 5.9. home vs Leeds: 48 % of duels won (54/112)
− Sat 19.9. home vs Arsenal: 50 % of duels won (51/102)
− Sat 10.10. away vs Sunderland: 50 % of duels won (52/104)
Next test Will the duel-win rate stay above half even against a possession-dominant opponent?
Hypothesis 4 · Set pieces State · closed · 6 matches
Set pieces may keep coming to nothing.
Supports
No longer backed by the evidence.
Challenges
− Sun 30.8. away vs Chelsea: 7 corners, 4 conceded
− Sun 23.8. home vs Aston Villa: 5 corners, 2 conceded
− Sun 13.9. away vs Coventry: 3 corners, 5 conceded
− Sat 5.9. home vs Leeds: 7 corners, 6 conceded
− Sat 19.9. home vs Arsenal: 5 corners, 6 conceded
− Sat 10.10. away vs Sunderland: 5 corners, 7 conceded
Last season 4.9 corners in the match, 4.8 against
Next test Will a corner or free kick produce a goal in the coming rounds?
Line: line mid-table: 13 offsides drawn; box open: 76 % of shots conceded came from inside the box
Progression: progression mid-table: 28.0 passes per shot, possession 60 %
Set pieces: in attack 32 corners (league 6./20), no headed goals yet; in defence 30 corners against (6./20), no headed goals conceded
Second half: output weighted to the second half (4+10 goals); own end tightens late (concessions 4+1); own threat holds in the second half (5.88 → 6.80 xG); opponents' threat falls (5.80 → 3.63 xG); first substitution on average at minute 69 (covering 5/6 matches, 1 was settled by half-time)
When leading: withstood the pressure: led at half-time 3 times and kept the result even as the opponents' threat grew (opponents' xG 5.80 → 3.63)
Box pressure delivers: 69 shots from inside the box (league 3./20) and 18 goals, 108 shots in total (2./20)
We track whether box pressure holds when opponents defend deeper: volume without goals is recorded as inefficiency.
The cost of indiscipline grows: 14 cards (league 3./20) and 77 fouls (5./20)
We track whether cards accumulate into suspensions and fouls into set pieces for opponents.
The lead held to the end: The lead was kept more often than lost and the opponents' threat fell in the second half (xG in the 2nd half below the 1st)
We track whether the lead holds against stronger opponents and whether the opponents' threat keeps falling in the 2nd half.
The second half sharpens: Threat rose in the second half (xG 2nd – 1st half +0.92)
We track whether the second-half sharpening repeats: is it structure or the opponent.
| Finishing goals vs xG | Chance creation assists vs xA | |
| Defenders | +0.1 | −2.9 |
| Midfield | −5.4 | +4.5 |
| Forwards | +1.5 | −1.9 |
TEAM IDENTITY
Home ground
The Amex Stadium opened in Falmer on 20.7.2011 after the temporary Withdean.
source: Wikipedia, Falmer StadiumTEAM MEMORY
Brighton reach the Premier League for the first time. A 2-1 win over Wigan, with promotion sealed the same day by Huddersfield's draw.
source: Premier League (premierleague.com), Brighton become 48th Premier League club