Season 2026-27 · Matchweek 6 · 10/10 played

Season's 6. matchweek against expectation: no clear upsets, the favourite won 4/10

Season 2026-27, matchweek 6: 10 matches played, and every result has been read from round data. This story sets the results against the expectation, read from three sources before the round: the market expectation (▷, when available), the season table before the round (●, when both sides have at least three matches) and last season's final table (●). The favourite is the market's favourite whenever the market expectation is available, because it is the only true probability and already prices in both tables. One round does not tell where the season ends up, but it tells exactly where expectations and outcomes parted ways, and those differences are what deserve following. Two conclusions come out of the measurement: which were the round's biggest upsets against the expectation, and who carried on as expected. Expectation held in 4/10 matches.

Signals.Signals editorial team · every number checked against the data · Thu 16.7.2026how to doubt us

This round in history

Highest-scoring round of the season: 3.6 goals per match, more than in 86 % of rounds in 2021–26 (176 rounds). The comparison rounds for 2021–26 are assembled from the result rows by date, and the favourite is the favourite by pre-match probability ▷.

The round's biggest surprises

Biggest first.

Coventry beat Newcastle 4-1 · ▷ market: Newcastle 43 % · ● season table before the round: Coventry 18th vs Newcastle 9th · ● last season: Coventry (promoted) vs Newcastle 12th
Crystal Palace beat Nottingham Forest 3-1 · ▷ market: Nott'm Forest 37 % · ● season table before the round: Crystal Palace 15th vs Nott'm Forest 13th · ● last season: Crystal Palace 15th vs Nott'm Forest 16th
Ipswich beat Fulham 2-1 · ▷ market: Fulham 38 % · ● season table before the round: Ipswich 11th vs Fulham 19th · ● last season: Ipswich (promoted) vs Fulham 11th
Tottenham shared the points with Manchester United 1-1 · ▷ market: Man Utd 55 % · ● season table before the round: Man Utd 12th vs Tottenham 20th · ● last season: Man Utd 3rd vs Tottenham 17th

An upset here is not an interpretation but a measured distance from the expectation. The market expectation is shown only as a probability, never as a price. The season table weighs more the more matches have been played; last season is the base against which the early season is read. A promoted side has no place from last season, so in that source it is always the underdog. Order: a clear expectation first, then goal difference, because a three-goal defeat is a different thing from a one-goal one. A draw is a smaller upset than a defeat, but it is still points the favourite did not get.

Arsenal (1.) – Leeds (14.)2–1

Aston Villa (4.) – Brentford (9.)2–2

Chelsea (10.) – Bournemouth (6.)5–1

Ipswich (promoted) – Fulham (11th)2–1

Sunderland (7.) – Brighton (8.)0–2

Man Utd (3.) – Tottenham (17.)1–1

Crystal Palace (15.) – Nott'm Forest (16.)3–1

Hull City (promoted) – Everton (13th)2–2

Liverpool (5.) – Man City (2.)0–3

Coventry (promoted) – Newcastle (12th)4–1

In brackets the place in last season's final table; a promoted side has no place. Expectation per match in the upset list (▷ market, ● season table before the round, ● last season). ● results from round data.

Concerns to the watch-list

Onto the watch-list: Liverpool (last season 5th), Bournemouth (last season 6th), a team from last season's top end that lost this round. A concern is neither a forecast nor a verdict. It is a bookkeeping entry meaning the team's start departed from last season's level in a way we follow round by round, to see whether it holds or corrects, and every entry is graded against the outcome the same way as the match previews.

Carried on as they left off

Expectation held in 4/10 matches. These carried on as expected.

Arsenal won 2-1 against Leeds · ▷ market: Arsenal 67 % · ● season table before the round: Arsenal 2nd vs Leeds 5th · ● last season: Arsenal 1st vs Leeds 14th
Chelsea won 5-1 against Bournemouth · ▷ market: Chelsea 56 % · ● season table before the round: Chelsea 10th vs Bournemouth 17th · ● last season: Chelsea 10th vs Bournemouth 6th
Man City won 3-0 against Liverpool · ▷ market: Man City 42 % · ● season table before the round: Liverpool 6th vs Man City 1st · ● last season: Liverpool 5th vs Man City 2nd
Brighton won 2-0 against Sunderland · ▷ market: Brighton 41 % · ● season table before the round: Sunderland 14th vs Brighton 3rd · ● last season: Sunderland 7th vs Brighton 8th

This figure is the round's single most important conclusion, because it tells how much the expectation still explains the results. A match that goes to form is as much an observation as an upset: it narrows the uncertainty around the expected level, even if it proves nothing on its own. That is why the matches the favourites held are recorded too, not just the upsets. Misses and hits are published with the same weight, because the value of a reading is only measured when both are visible side by side in the same table.

Let us say the limit out loud: one round is not a trend. We do not claim a deviation predicts collapse or that a holding start guarantees a top spot. The claims we made from this round are logged on the Matches list as previews and graded against outcomes, and this digest lives by the same discipline: once the next round is played, the same read runs again and the watch-list entries either firm up or drop off.

● Measured.Results and half-time splits are read from round data. The expectation before the round comes from three sources: the market expectation (▷ a probability computed from the average of closing prices, overround removed; prices are not shown), the season table before the round (● played matches only, weighted by the number played) and last season's final table (● the 2025-26 result rows). The favourite is the market's favourite whenever there is a market, otherwise the favourite of the stronger table source. An upset is a match or a point the favourite lost; its size is the strength of the expectation and the goal difference, not a judgement. A promoted side has no place from last season. Every match's preview and outcome areOn the Matches list · method →Track record .

← Back to the front page